Accepted Manuscript Title: Climate change influences on the annual onset of Lyme disease in the United States Author: Andrew J. Monaghan Sean M. Moore Kevin M. Sampson Charles B. Beard Rebecca J. Eisen PII: DOI: Reference:
S1877-959X(15)00087-4 http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.1016/j.ttbdis.2015.05.005 TTBDIS 487
To appear in: Received date: Revised date: Accepted date:
2-10-2014 23-4-2015 7-5-2015
Please cite this article as: Monaghan, A.J., Moore, S.M., Sampson, K.M., Beard, C.B., Eisen, R.J.,Climate change influences on the annual onset of Lyme disease in the United States, Ticks and Tick-borne Diseases (2015), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ttbdis.2015.05.005 This is a PDF file of an unedited manuscript that has been accepted for publication. As a service to our customers we are providing this early version of the manuscript. The manuscript will undergo copyediting, typesetting, and review of the resulting proof before it is published in its final form. Please note that during the production process errors may be discovered which could affect the content, and all legal disclaimers that apply to the journal pertain.
Climate change influences on the annual onset of Lyme disease in the United States Andrew J. Monaghana*, Sean M. Mooreb, Kevin M. Sampsona, Charles B. Beardc, and Rebecca
ip t
J. Eisenc
a-
cr
Research Applications Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research
us
3090 Center Green Dr., Boulder, CO 80301, USA
b-
an
E-mail: [email protected], [email protected]
Johns Hopkins School of Public Health
M
615 N. Wolfe St., Baltimore, MD 21205, USA
c-
d
E-mail: [email protected]
te
Division of Vector-Borne Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 3150 Rampart Rd., Fort Collins, CO 80522, USA
Ac ce p
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65
E-mail: [email protected], [email protected]
*Correspondence: AJ Monaghan, National Center for Atmospheric Research, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307-3000, USA; Telephone: 1-303-497-8424. E-mail: [email protected]
1 Page 1 of 31
Abstract Lyme disease is the most commonly reported vector-borne illness in the United States. Lyme
ip t
disease occurrence is highly seasonal and the annual springtime onset of cases is modulated by meteorological conditions in preceding months. A meteorological-based empirical model for
cr
Lyme disease onset week in the United States is driven with downscaled simulations from five global climate models and four greenhouse gas emissions scenarios to project the impacts of 21st
us
century climate change on the annual onset week of Lyme disease. Projections are made
an
individually and collectively for the 12 eastern States where >90% of cases occur. The national average annual onset week of Lyme disease is projected to become 0.4-0.5 weeks earlier for
M
2025-2040 (p
S1877-959X(15)00087-4 http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.1016/j.ttbdis.2015.05.005 TTBDIS 487
To appear in: Received date: Revised date: Accepted date:
2-10-2014 23-4-2015 7-5-2015
Please cite this article as: Monaghan, A.J., Moore, S.M., Sampson, K.M., Beard, C.B., Eisen, R.J.,Climate change influences on the annual onset of Lyme disease in the United States, Ticks and Tick-borne Diseases (2015), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ttbdis.2015.05.005 This is a PDF file of an unedited manuscript that has been accepted for publication. As a service to our customers we are providing this early version of the manuscript. The manuscript will undergo copyediting, typesetting, and review of the resulting proof before it is published in its final form. Please note that during the production process errors may be discovered which could affect the content, and all legal disclaimers that apply to the journal pertain.
Climate change influences on the annual onset of Lyme disease in the United States Andrew J. Monaghana*, Sean M. Mooreb, Kevin M. Sampsona, Charles B. Beardc, and Rebecca
ip t
J. Eisenc
a-
cr
Research Applications Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research
us
3090 Center Green Dr., Boulder, CO 80301, USA
b-
an
E-mail: [email protected], [email protected]
Johns Hopkins School of Public Health
M
615 N. Wolfe St., Baltimore, MD 21205, USA
c-
d
E-mail: [email protected]
te
Division of Vector-Borne Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 3150 Rampart Rd., Fort Collins, CO 80522, USA
Ac ce p
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65
E-mail: [email protected], [email protected]
*Correspondence: AJ Monaghan, National Center for Atmospheric Research, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307-3000, USA; Telephone: 1-303-497-8424. E-mail: [email protected]
1 Page 1 of 31
Abstract Lyme disease is the most commonly reported vector-borne illness in the United States. Lyme
ip t
disease occurrence is highly seasonal and the annual springtime onset of cases is modulated by meteorological conditions in preceding months. A meteorological-based empirical model for
cr
Lyme disease onset week in the United States is driven with downscaled simulations from five global climate models and four greenhouse gas emissions scenarios to project the impacts of 21st
us
century climate change on the annual onset week of Lyme disease. Projections are made
an
individually and collectively for the 12 eastern States where >90% of cases occur. The national average annual onset week of Lyme disease is projected to become 0.4-0.5 weeks earlier for
M
2025-2040 (p
