How accurate and relevant

are

physician manpower statistics?

By C.B. Stewart, MD A growing interest in health manpower has been evident in the past few years. Planners of health services require ac¬ curate estimates of the manpower re¬ quired to meet the needs of the Cana¬ dian people. Educators, responsible for the training of more than 50 health professions and disciplines, need similar data. Governments, well aware that salaries constitute the major component of the cost of health services, criticize any surplus of manpower, suspected or real. Under such circumstances it is vitally important that the compilers of manpower statistics ensure that the data are as accurate and precisely pre¬ sented as possible. The most commonly quoted statistic on physician manpower is a simple head count (such as that Nova Scotia had 1353 "active physicians" in 1973) or a ratio of population per physician (Nova Scotia had a ratio of one phy¬ sician per 599 in 1973). These manpower statistics look so deceptively simple that it is easy to forget two of the cardinal rules of the to standardize the epidemiologists definition of what is counted and to relate it to the relevant population if using a rate, ratio or percentage. The Department of National Health and Welfare has improved its health manpower statistics during the last 5 years. The 1974 "Canada Health Man¬ power Inventory" (CHMI) contains much useful data. Nevertheless, those interested in these statistics must un¬ derstand their limitations. Moreover, some common

misinterpretations might

be avoided if the form of tabulation were altered.

Definition of

physician

Let us first consider the definition the particular of "active physicians" terminology used in this inventory. I asked a number of physicians and med¬ ical students what the term conveyed .

Physician this unit group includes oc¬ cupations concerned with preventing, diag¬ nosing and treating human illnesses. Ac¬ tivities include: conducting medical exam¬ inations, making diagnoses, prescribing and giving treatment for diseases, dis¬ orders and injuries of the human body and applying preventive medicine tech¬ niques; performing surgical operations in the treatment of injuries, diseases and disorders of the human body; and per¬ forming related tasks. .

The

source

of this definition is stated

to be the 1971 "Canadian

tion and Liberal

Not all

physicians

look at

patients

invariably the answer "a clinical practitioner in full-time practice". Some added the comment that the ratio of physicians to popula¬ tion was obviously calculated to de¬ termine whether there were sufficient numbers of clinical practitioners in each province to provide for the needs of the

to them. Almost was

This conclusion seemed to supported by the definition in the

population.

be

inventory:

Dictionary

of

Classifica¬

Occupations".

interpretation?

This definition describes the func¬ tions of the practising clinician in either general practice or a clinical specialty. Because of the inclusion of "preventive medicine techniques", public health specialists may also be included, al¬ though preventive medicine is prac¬ tised also by general practitioners and specialists. The final four words in this definition, "and performing related tasks", might cover a wide scope, but most readers will interpret it to mean tasks related to the duties already de¬ the prevention, diagnosis or scribed treatment of disease, disorders and in¬ juries of the human body; in other words, the term "physician" is equated with "clinical practitioner". The number of active physicians in each province and the ratio of popula¬ tion per physician are contained in Tables 15.1 and 15.2 of the inventory. Readers who consult only these two tables may miss the fact that the com¬ pilers either did not use the definition of physician quoted above from their own publication or they interpreted the last four words "and performing re¬ lated tasks" much more liberally than most readers probably would. This is shown by Table 15.4 of the inventory, in which the total number of active

CMA JOURNAL/MAY 8, 1976/VOL. 114 835

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physicians is broken down for 1973 into general practitioners, specialists, physicians not-in-private practice, interns and residents and type of practice unspecified. Physicians not-inprivate practice include those in teaching, research, administration and other nonclinical activities. The column for "type of practice unspecified" showed 0 and can be disregarded. Of the 36 905 active physicians in Canada in 1973, according to the inventory, 2760 were physicians not-inprivate practice and 6031 were interns or residents - a total of 8791 or 24.3%. Obviously two persons may reach different conclusions concerning the adequacy of the medical manpower pool if one counts as physicians all licensed MDs, no matter how employed, while the other counts only clinical practitioners. I believe those who compile government statistics should label their product accurately and follow their own definitions. Active physicians Let us examine further what was counted. The term used is not simply "physician" but "active physician Those whom I consulted thought this meant a full-time clinical practitioner. In fact, it is difficult to obtain accurate statistics on part-time practitioners. Most licensing boards do not provide information on the number who are semiretired or engaged only part-time in clinical practice. The "Canadian Medical Directory", from which the inventory obtains much of its data, includes a considerable number of general practitioners and specialists who are doing only a limited practice. In 1972 an estimate was made of the number of full-time clinician-equivalents for physicians in general practice and the clinical specialties in Nova Scotia

(STEWART

CR,

BENJAMIN

J:

Medical Manpower in Nova Scotia, in NS Council of Health Background Papers, vol. II, Halifax, 1972). A composite list of physicians was prepared from the registry of the Provincial Medical Board of Nova Scotia, the mailing lists of the Medical Society of Nova Scotia and the division of continuing medical education of Dalhousie University. This list was crosschecked by at least one member of each local branch of the medical society who was well acquainted with his confreres in the immediate area. He deleted and added as necessary and estimated the proportion of time devoted to practice by those in semiretirement - married women doctors and physicians engaged in part-time administration, teaching, etc. In Halifax the list of Dalhousie faculty members was checked by the

head of each university and hospital department. There were 415 general practitioners, and it was determined they were equivalent to 405 full-time practitioners. The nu'mber of specialists was 507 individuals, reduced to 442 full-time clinician-equivalents. The total of 922 clinicians was therefore reduced by 8.1% to 847 full-time equivalents. In comparison, CHMI reported that Nova Scotia had 1147 active physicians in 1972 - 300 more than our estimate of active full-time clinical practitioners, a difference of 35%. Second check A second check on full-time equivalents was obtained in 1973, the first year in which the Provincial Medical Board tried to find from all licensed practitioners the number of hours per week they practised. Based on slightly less than a 90% return of the questionnaire, the total number of 1065 licensed practitioners was reduced by 9% to 970 clinician-equivalents. The Canada Health Manpower Inventory showed 1353 active physicians for the same year (a difference of 383), and the exaggerated ratio of 1 physician to 599 persons was based on the larger figure. The two independent studies in Nova Scotia for 1972 and 1973 were therefore in general agreement that the number of clinical practitioners should be reduced by 8 or 9% to account for part-time or semiretired clinicians. The magnitude of the difference suggests similar studies are desirable in other provinces. A simple head count of all licensed physicians is not adequate to determine the effective manpower pool. Physician-population ratios Let us now revert to the second question. Why is the count of active physicians related to the population of the province? The growth in population of any province will obviously require a comparable increase in the number of physicians providing clinical services. It is therefore reasonable to calculate a ratio which shows the number of clinicians per unit of population, or, more commonly, the average number of persons served by one clinician. However, the inclusion of physicians who are not in private practice and interns or residents in such a ratio is questionable. Neither group changes in direct relation to the population but rather to the presence and size of training facilities for interns and residents or to the number of salaried positions for teaching, research and administration in universities, industrial organizations, hospitals and government. There is, of course,

CMA JOURNAL/MAY 8, 1976/VOL. 114 837

Table I.Numbers and ratios off physicians General practitioners Number 276 64 485 292 2816 4935

m NS NB on MB SK

572 551

m m u

AB BC

rr

Notspec

by types off work end by province

Specialiste

in Canada ffor 1973

Physicians not-in-private practice Interns and residents Clinical practitioners

Ratio Ratio to

to Ratio to

Ratio to Ratio

CHHI

Ratio toto

population Number popubtion Number population Number population Number population population 1:1957 1:1813 1:1670 1:225$ 1:2170 1:1627 1:1756 1:1644

1:3439 1:3222

1:1906 1312 1:1380 1:1518 1:1642 1:2378

1:1717 vmr

1:7297 1:23 200 1:8181 1:12 654 1:8396 1:6255 1:8040

mm

1:5510 1:2355 1:12 654 1:2806 1:3626 1:3489 1:5922

1:4905

433 100 910 573 7244 10227 1181 932 1984

3674

1:1667

1:1247 1:1160 1:890 1:1148 1:844 1:785 1:849 1:972 1:858 1:Ǥ 1:1333

WtiB

1:893 1:1105 1:599 1:972 1:602 1:585 1:629 1:764 1:674 1:575 1:1111

WSSBKm

family physicians and specialists are not reduced allow for part-time practice. Ratio in right-hand column as published in "Canada Health Inventory", 1974 includes salaried nonclinicians and tpinterns and residents. Column for clinical practitioners is sum of GPs and specialists.

Figures for

Manpower

a valid argument that interns and resi¬ dents provide clinical services during their training and that this benefits the patients of the province in which the medical school is located. There might be a similar argument for including the 4th-year students who are clinical clerks. Nevertheless, counting heads without a valid effort to estimate clinician-equivalents may be grossly mis¬ leading. Although interns and residents provide clinical services in the hospitals, they are under the direction of clinical

teachers, who could care for more pa¬ tients if they were not devoting time to education. It is unreasonable to in¬ clude both the teachers and the students as active physicians, thus conveying the impression that both are practising fulltime clinical medicine. Table I includes a comparison of the ratio of population per clinical practi¬ tioner in each province (based on the sum of GPs and specialists) with the ratio of population per active physician according to Canada Health Manpower

Inventory figures. The CHMI ratios seem to show that Nova Scotia, Quebec, Ontario, Mani¬ toba and British Columbia have reached or exceeded the ratio of 1:650, which the World Health Organization recom¬ mends as adequate to meet the needs of a population, but only British Co¬ lumbia reaches this standard if one counts only clinical practitioners, and even this is questionable, as will be

indicated later. The differences between the two ratios vary widely from prov-

The Canadian Medical Association invitcs

applications for the position Secretary General

of

The Secretary General is the senior official of The Associa¬ tion and has overall staff responsibility for its operations. Applicants should have extensive experience in medical prac¬ tice and have demonstrated senior administrative capabilities.

Apply

in strict confidence to:

L. C Grisdale, M.D*, President, The Canadian Medical Association, RO. Box 8650, Ottawa, Ontario, K1G 0G8. 838 CMA JOURNAL/MAY 8, 1976/VOL. 114

ince to province. They are almost identical in Prince Edward Island one clinician per 1160 and one active physician per 1105. Here there are only five nonclinician licensed MDs and no interns or residents. In contrast, the number of persons per clinician is be¬ tween 200 and 300 more than the CHMI ratio in Nova Scotia, Quebec, Ontario, Manitoba and Saskatchewan and over 600 more per clinician in Newfoundland. It makes a great dif¬ ference to health care planners and medical educators which ratio is used. My own opinion is that the Nova Sco¬ tia ratio of one clinician to 890 persons still has an 8 to 9% excess because of part-time practitioners; the CHMI ratio of 1:599 is grossly exaggerated. The table also compares the man¬ power supply of general practitioners and specialists by province and the ra¬ tios to population. Wide ranges will again be noted.

.

toba, Saskatchewan and Alberta (range 1:7297 to 1:8970). This suggests that their inclusion with clinical practitioners in an overall ratio would have little effect. However, in four other provinces the differences are so great that a combined ratio, including both clini¬ cians and nonclinicians, is misleading.

The difference between Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island or New Brunswick is in part due to the location of Dalhousie Medical School. Almost all the interns and residents of the Maritime provinces are erroneously credited to the Nova Scotia ratio. The larger number of nonclinicians in On¬ tario probably relates to the fact that there are two large government units, federal and provincial, as well as five medical schools and a concentration of research and pharmaceutical agencies. The large difference between British Columbia and all other provinces is probably explained by a footnote in CHMI which states that the 90 physi¬ Relevancy to Canada cians not in private practice are those Data such as are presented in Table "who have not registered with the I should permit health care planners Medical Services Commission of British to develop distinctively Canadian stand¬ Columbia." This suggests that medical ards rather than depending on an ar¬ educators, research workers, hospital administrators or others who did any bitrary ratio such as the WHO recom¬ clinical practice at all were counted as mendation, whose adequacy or relev¬ general practitioners or specialists. This ance has not been established in relation to Canadian requirements. In fact, a is contrary to the definition of CHMI range of standards should be developed. for "physicians-not-in-private practice". Canada has widely differing patterns of It also would account in part for the medical practice, as evidenced in the apparently better ratio of clinical prac¬ table by the high proportion of special¬ titioners to population in that province. The table also shows that the ratio ists in Quebec. Differences in age dis¬ of interns and residents to population tribution of the population and in disease incidence, differences in the fluctuates widely. It is obviously re¬ rural-urban mix of population and in lated to the number and size of the the habits of people in using available medical schools in the province, not to health services are only a few of the population. It therefore distorts the factors that must be taken into account. provincial ratios and, I believe, groscly If planning for health services is to be exaggerates them. sound, the needs of people must be the guideline, and these are not the same In whose interest? in all areas of the country. Any average figure, such as the national physician My reluctant conclusion is that stand¬ to population ratio or the WHO ratio, ards are being used to determine the is of questionable value. Use of a range adequacy of physician manpower which of standards also makes it less likely may not be in the best interests of that an average will be converted to a Canadian citizens. Even more serious is ceiling. Through methods not likely to the concern that the overestimation of be accepted by mathematicians, the physician manpower may have been average ratio of hospital beds per 1000 influenced by the desire to prevent un¬ population has already been converted necessary escalation of costs rather than to a ceiling beyond which a community estimate the true needs of Canadians. If a suspicion were to grow that the may not be permitted to build a hospi¬ tal or is required to reduce its facilities. compilation of official statistics is in There is strong evidence that medical any respect slanted, serious research manpower projections are now to be scientists would discard them, to the laid on a similar bed of Procrustes, detriment of health care research and using a WHO standard that has not planning. The enviable reputation of been evaluated in a Canadian setting. Statistics Canada for objectivity and in¬ The table also shows that ratios of dependence from political pressure population per nonclinical MD are might serve as a useful example to the within a fairly narrow range in New¬ manpower division of the Department foundland, Nova Scotia, Quebec, Mani¬ of National Health and Welfare. ¦

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CMA JOURNAL/MAY 8, 1976/VOL. 114 839

How accurate and relevant are physician manpower statistics?

How accurate and relevant are physician manpower statistics? By C.B. Stewart, MD A growing interest in health manpower has been evident in the past...
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