This article was downloaded by: [Memorial University of Newfoundland] On: 01 February 2015, At: 02:59 Publisher: Routledge Informa Ltd Registered in England and Wales Registered Number: 1072954 Registered office: Mortimer House, 37-41 Mortimer Street, London W1T 3JH, UK
The Journal of Social Psychology Publication details, including instructions for authors and subscription information: http://www.tandfonline.com/loi/vsoc20
Lunar Phases and Crisis Center Telephone Calls a
James E. Wilson II & Jerome J. Tobacyk
a
a
Behavioral Science , Louisiana Tech University , USA Published online: 01 Jul 2010.
To cite this article: James E. Wilson II & Jerome J. Tobacyk (1990) Lunar Phases and Crisis Center Telephone Calls, The Journal of Social Psychology, 130:1, 47-51, DOI: 10.1080/00224545.1990.9922932 To link to this article: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00224545.1990.9922932
PLEASE SCROLL DOWN FOR ARTICLE Taylor & Francis makes every effort to ensure the accuracy of all the information (the “Content”) contained in the publications on our platform. However, Taylor & Francis, our agents, and our licensors make no representations or warranties whatsoever as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability for any purpose of the Content. Any opinions and views expressed in this publication are the opinions and views of the authors, and are not the views of or endorsed by Taylor & Francis. The accuracy of the Content should not be relied upon and should be independently verified with primary sources of information. Taylor and Francis shall not be liable for any losses, actions, claims, proceedings, demands, costs, expenses, damages, and other liabilities whatsoever or howsoever caused arising directly or indirectly in connection with, in relation to or arising out of the use of the Content.
Downloaded by [Memorial University of Newfoundland] at 02:59 01 February 2015
This article may be used for research, teaching, and private study purposes. Any substantial or systematic reproduction, redistribution, reselling, loan, sub-licensing, systematic supply, or distribution in any form to anyone is expressly forbidden. Terms & Conditions of access and use can be found at http://www.tandfonline.com/page/terms-and-conditions
The Journal of Social Psychology, I3ql), 47-51
Downloaded by [Memorial University of Newfoundland] at 02:59 01 February 2015
Lunar Phases and Crisis Center Telephone Calls JAMES E. WILSON 11 JEROME J. TOBACYK Behavioral Science Loukiana Tech University
ABSTRACT. The lunar hypothesis, that is, the notion that lunar phases can directly affect human behavior, was tested by time-series analysis of 4,575 crisis center telephone calls (all calls recorded for a &month interval). As expected, the lunar hypothesis was not supported. The 28-day lunar cycle accounted for less than 1% of the variance of the frequency of crisis center calls. Also, as hypothesized from an attribution theory framework, crisis center workers reported significantly greater belief in lunar effects than a non-crisis-center-worker comparison group.
THE LUNAR HYPOTHESIS, that is, the notion that lunar phases can directly affect human behavior, has generated controversy in both scientific and lay communities (Abel, 1976; Campbell, 1982; Garzino, 1982; Omstein, 1978; Rotton, 1982). Some proponents, arguing for a lunar effect, have speculated about physical mechanisms such as gravitational pull (Lieber, 1978; McDonald, 1966; Schurman, 1948) and psychological mechanisms such as expectations (Sarton, 1939). Rotton and Kelly (1985) performed a meta-analysis of data from 37 studies of the lunar hypothesis. These studies used such outcome variables as hospital admissions, psychiatric disturbances, crisis calls, homicides, and other criminal offenses. They reported that phases of the moon accounted for less than 1% of the variance in these outcome variables and concluded that there was no support for the lunar hypothesis. However, Cyr and Kalpin (1983, arguing that the majority of research on the lunar hypothesis has been methodologically and statistically inadequate, contend that the lunar hypothesis has not been adequately tested and call for further research.
Requestsfor reprints should be sent to Jerome J. Tobacyk, Box 10048, Behavioral Science, Louisiana Tech University, Ruston, LA 71272. 47
Downloaded by [Memorial University of Newfoundland] at 02:59 01 February 2015
48
The Journal of Social Psychology
The lunar hypothesis is important not only in terms of its reality status, but also because of the relatively high base rate of belief in lunar effects in the general population. For example, Angus (1973) noted that 74% (64/86)of a sample of psychiatric nurses reported the belief that lunar phases affect patients with mental illness. Rotton and Kelly (1985) reported the construction of a nine-item Belief in Lunar Effects (BILE) questionnaire. Based on BILE Scale responses of 157 undergraduates, 74 respondents (about 47% of their sample) recorded greater belief than disbelief in lunar effects. Item endorsement ranged from over 49% of respondents agreeing that “Some people behave strangely when the moon is full” to about 5% agreeing that “It is a good idea to stay at home when the moon is full.” We examined two aspects of the lunar hypothesis. Part 1 used time-series analysis to test the lunar hypothesis in relation to crisis center telephone calls. The predictor variable was lunar phase, and the two outcome variables were the total number of calls made to a crisis intervention center during a &month period and the total number of calls made to the crisis center by repeat callers during the same period. No relationship between lunar phases and crisis center calls was expected. Part 2 compared BILE scores of crisis center workers with those of a comparison group of non-crisis-center workers. It was hypothesized that crisis center workers would show greater BILE scores than the nonworkers, for reasons which are discussed later. Part 1
Records from a telephone crisis center in Louisiana that serves a population of more than 149,000 were examined for the period from January 1, 1985 through June 30, 1985. This telephone crisis center employs trained volunteer counselors to answer the telephones 2A hr a day and to provide assistance to anonymous callers. Data concerning time of call, type of call, sex of caller, and repeat-caller status were listed for each call. Major types of calls included request-for-information, personal-problem, and family-problem calls. These 4,575 telephone calls were the observations in this study. The position of the moon was determined by using The Astronomical Almanac (formerly The American Ephemeris and Nautical Almanac; United States Naval Observatory, 1985). The date, moon position, and information about the telephone calls were entered into a time-series regression model. Two outcome variables were analyzed separately: the total number of crisis center calls and the total number of crisis center calls from repeat callers.
Results For total calls, the 3CLday (monthly) cycle accounted for about 3% of the variance and the 7-day (weekly) cycle accounted for about 2% of the variance.
Downloaded by [Memorial University of Newfoundland] at 02:59 01 February 2015
Wilson & Tobacyk
49
After the variance accounted for by the monthly and weekly cycles was removed, the m o u n t of variance accounted for by the %day lunar cycle was about .2 of 1%. For repeat callers, the 3Cday (monthly) cycle accounted for about 1% of the variance and the 7-day (weekly) cycle accounted for about 4% of the total variance. After the variance accounted for by the monthly and weekly cycles was removed, the 28-day (lunar) cycle accounted for less than 1% of the total variance. These results indicate that although weekly and monthly cycles account for some of the variability in total crisis center calls (about 2% and 3% of the variance, respectively), the 28-day lunar cycle accounts for a negligible m o u n t of variance (less than 1Yo). Similarly, for repeat calls, the weekly and monthly cycles account for about 4% and 1% of the total variance, respectively, and the %-day lunar cycle accounts for less than 1% of the total variance. These results for both outcome variables show no significant relationship between lunar phases and frequency of crisis center calls. Our findings support Rotton and Kelly’s (1984) conclusion of no support for the lunar hypothesis. Part 2
Part 2 compared belief in lunar effects of workers in the same crisis center with beliefs of a comparison group of non-crisis-center workers (university students). It was hypothesized that the crisis center workers would report significantly greater belief in lunar effects than would the university student comparison group. This hypothesis was proposed because a crisis center setting may be conducive to constuction of an illusory correlation between occurrence of telephone calls and salient environmental cues, such as lunar phases. Illusory correlation refers to the tendency of persons who expect a relationship between two variables either to greatly overestimate the degree of relationship that exists or to impose a relationship when none exists (Fiske & Taylor, 1984). Lunar phases are accessible, salient cues, and the lunar effect is given much media attention. Thus, crisis center calls and lunar phases might be perceived as covarying on the basis of prior expectations, that is, via associative meaning (Chapman, 1%7). According to attribution theories (Heider, 1W; 1958; Kelley, 1%7), humans attempt to understand, predict, and control events. In a crisis center setting, the actual occurrence of crisis calls is unpredictable. This unpredictability might generate uncertainty and anxiety. The belief that one can, to some degree, predict the occurrence of crisis calls might provide the worker with greater perceived control and reduce uncertainty and anxiety. Thus, the belief that crisis center calls are correlated with lunar phases might provide a greater sense of understanding, prediction, and control.
50
The Journal of Social Psychology
The BILE Scale was administered to 87 workers at the crisis center described in Part 1 (Mage = 37.7 years, SD = 14.9) and to 102 university students (M age = 21.1 years, SD = 5.5) who were not crisis center workers. The BILE score measures the degree of belief in lunar effects, with higher scores associated with greater reported belief in lunar effects.
Downloaded by [Memorial University of Newfoundland] at 02:59 01 February 2015
Results As hypothesized, the crisis-center-worker group mean on the BILE Scale ( M = 26.78, SD = 8.12) was significantly greater than that of the comparison group (A4 = 22.32, SD = 7.76; t(187) = 4.71, p < .001). Although there is a substantial age difference between the crisis center workers (M age = 37.7) and the student comparison group (M age = 21. l), it appears that the significant difference in BILE scores between these two groups is not due to age differences. A multiple regression, with age and occupation (crisis center worker, student) as the predictor variables and BILE scores as the outcome variable, showed that age accounted for a nonsignificant portion of the BILE score variance, F(1, 186) = 1.09,ns, even when entered first into the regression equation. These findings are consistent with the notion that crisis center workers might tend to construct illusory correlations concerning lunar effects to reduce anxiety and provide greater experienced understanding, prediction, and control. These notions might be further explored in different life settings in which persons have varying degrees of actual ability to predict or control emotionally powerful events. As a caveat, these conclusions might be considered tentative because unmeasured selection factors distinguishing the two groups, for example, level of education, might influence susceptibility to illusory correlations and belief in lunar effects.
REFERENCES
Abel, E. L. (1976). Moon madness. Greenwich, CT: Fawcett. Angus, M. D. (1973). The rejection of two explanations of belief in a lunar influence on behavior. Unpublished master’s thesis, Simon Fraser University, Bumaby, BC, Canada. Campbell, D. E. (1982). Lunar-lunacy research: When enough is enough. Environment and Behavior, 14, 418-424. Chapman, L. J. (1%7). Illusory correlation in observational report. Journal of Verbal Learning and Verbal Behavior, 6, 151-155. Cyr, J. J., & Kalpin, R. A. (1987). Geophysical variables and behavior, XLVI. The lunar-lunacy relationship: A poorly evaluated hypothesis. Psychological Reports, 61, 391-400. Fiske, S. T., & Taylor, S. E. (1984). Social cognition. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley.
Wilson & Tobacyk
51
Garzino, S. (1982). Lunar effects on behavior: A defense of the empirical resea-ch. Environment and Behavior, 14, 395-417. Heider, F. (1944). Social perception and phenomenal causality. Psychological Review,
Downloaded by [Memorial University of Newfoundland] at 02:59 01 February 2015
51, 358-374.
Heider, F. (1958). The psychology of interpersonal relations. New York: Wiley. Kelley, H. H. (1%7). Attribution theory in social psychology. In D. Levine (Ed.), Nebraska Symposium on Motivation (Vol. 15, pp. 192-238). Lincoln: University of Nebraska Press. Lieber, A. L. (1978). The lunar effect: Biological tides and human emotions. Garden City, NJ: Doubleday. McDonald, R. L. (1966). Lunar and seasonal variations in obstetric factors. Journal of Genetic Psychology, 108, 81-87. Ornstein, R. (1978, November). Review of A. L. Lieber’s The lunar effect. Human Nature, 42). 21-22, 25-26. Rotton, J. (1982). [Review of Full moons by Paul Katzeffj. Skeptical Inquirer, 7(1), 62-64.
Rotton, J., and Kelly, I. W. (1984). Much ado about the full moon: A meta-analysis of lunar-lunacy research. Psychological Bulletin, 97(2), 286-306. Rotton, J.. and Kelly, I. W. (1985). A scale for assessing belief in lunar effects: Reliability and concurrent validity. Psychological Reports, 57, 239-245. Sarton, G. (1939). Lunar influences on living things. Isis, 30, 495-507. Schurman, A. G. (1948). The effect of the moon on childbirth. Virginia Medical Monthly, 76, 78. United States Naval Observatory (1985). The astronomical almanac. Washington, DC: United States Government Printing Office.
Received April 3, 1989
The Journal of Social Psychology Publication details, including instructions for authors and subscription information: http://www.tandfonline.com/loi/vsoc20
Lunar Phases and Crisis Center Telephone Calls a
James E. Wilson II & Jerome J. Tobacyk
a
a
Behavioral Science , Louisiana Tech University , USA Published online: 01 Jul 2010.
To cite this article: James E. Wilson II & Jerome J. Tobacyk (1990) Lunar Phases and Crisis Center Telephone Calls, The Journal of Social Psychology, 130:1, 47-51, DOI: 10.1080/00224545.1990.9922932 To link to this article: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00224545.1990.9922932
PLEASE SCROLL DOWN FOR ARTICLE Taylor & Francis makes every effort to ensure the accuracy of all the information (the “Content”) contained in the publications on our platform. However, Taylor & Francis, our agents, and our licensors make no representations or warranties whatsoever as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability for any purpose of the Content. Any opinions and views expressed in this publication are the opinions and views of the authors, and are not the views of or endorsed by Taylor & Francis. The accuracy of the Content should not be relied upon and should be independently verified with primary sources of information. Taylor and Francis shall not be liable for any losses, actions, claims, proceedings, demands, costs, expenses, damages, and other liabilities whatsoever or howsoever caused arising directly or indirectly in connection with, in relation to or arising out of the use of the Content.
Downloaded by [Memorial University of Newfoundland] at 02:59 01 February 2015
This article may be used for research, teaching, and private study purposes. Any substantial or systematic reproduction, redistribution, reselling, loan, sub-licensing, systematic supply, or distribution in any form to anyone is expressly forbidden. Terms & Conditions of access and use can be found at http://www.tandfonline.com/page/terms-and-conditions
The Journal of Social Psychology, I3ql), 47-51
Downloaded by [Memorial University of Newfoundland] at 02:59 01 February 2015
Lunar Phases and Crisis Center Telephone Calls JAMES E. WILSON 11 JEROME J. TOBACYK Behavioral Science Loukiana Tech University
ABSTRACT. The lunar hypothesis, that is, the notion that lunar phases can directly affect human behavior, was tested by time-series analysis of 4,575 crisis center telephone calls (all calls recorded for a &month interval). As expected, the lunar hypothesis was not supported. The 28-day lunar cycle accounted for less than 1% of the variance of the frequency of crisis center calls. Also, as hypothesized from an attribution theory framework, crisis center workers reported significantly greater belief in lunar effects than a non-crisis-center-worker comparison group.
THE LUNAR HYPOTHESIS, that is, the notion that lunar phases can directly affect human behavior, has generated controversy in both scientific and lay communities (Abel, 1976; Campbell, 1982; Garzino, 1982; Omstein, 1978; Rotton, 1982). Some proponents, arguing for a lunar effect, have speculated about physical mechanisms such as gravitational pull (Lieber, 1978; McDonald, 1966; Schurman, 1948) and psychological mechanisms such as expectations (Sarton, 1939). Rotton and Kelly (1985) performed a meta-analysis of data from 37 studies of the lunar hypothesis. These studies used such outcome variables as hospital admissions, psychiatric disturbances, crisis calls, homicides, and other criminal offenses. They reported that phases of the moon accounted for less than 1% of the variance in these outcome variables and concluded that there was no support for the lunar hypothesis. However, Cyr and Kalpin (1983, arguing that the majority of research on the lunar hypothesis has been methodologically and statistically inadequate, contend that the lunar hypothesis has not been adequately tested and call for further research.
Requestsfor reprints should be sent to Jerome J. Tobacyk, Box 10048, Behavioral Science, Louisiana Tech University, Ruston, LA 71272. 47
Downloaded by [Memorial University of Newfoundland] at 02:59 01 February 2015
48
The Journal of Social Psychology
The lunar hypothesis is important not only in terms of its reality status, but also because of the relatively high base rate of belief in lunar effects in the general population. For example, Angus (1973) noted that 74% (64/86)of a sample of psychiatric nurses reported the belief that lunar phases affect patients with mental illness. Rotton and Kelly (1985) reported the construction of a nine-item Belief in Lunar Effects (BILE) questionnaire. Based on BILE Scale responses of 157 undergraduates, 74 respondents (about 47% of their sample) recorded greater belief than disbelief in lunar effects. Item endorsement ranged from over 49% of respondents agreeing that “Some people behave strangely when the moon is full” to about 5% agreeing that “It is a good idea to stay at home when the moon is full.” We examined two aspects of the lunar hypothesis. Part 1 used time-series analysis to test the lunar hypothesis in relation to crisis center telephone calls. The predictor variable was lunar phase, and the two outcome variables were the total number of calls made to a crisis intervention center during a &month period and the total number of calls made to the crisis center by repeat callers during the same period. No relationship between lunar phases and crisis center calls was expected. Part 2 compared BILE scores of crisis center workers with those of a comparison group of non-crisis-center workers. It was hypothesized that crisis center workers would show greater BILE scores than the nonworkers, for reasons which are discussed later. Part 1
Records from a telephone crisis center in Louisiana that serves a population of more than 149,000 were examined for the period from January 1, 1985 through June 30, 1985. This telephone crisis center employs trained volunteer counselors to answer the telephones 2A hr a day and to provide assistance to anonymous callers. Data concerning time of call, type of call, sex of caller, and repeat-caller status were listed for each call. Major types of calls included request-for-information, personal-problem, and family-problem calls. These 4,575 telephone calls were the observations in this study. The position of the moon was determined by using The Astronomical Almanac (formerly The American Ephemeris and Nautical Almanac; United States Naval Observatory, 1985). The date, moon position, and information about the telephone calls were entered into a time-series regression model. Two outcome variables were analyzed separately: the total number of crisis center calls and the total number of crisis center calls from repeat callers.
Results For total calls, the 3CLday (monthly) cycle accounted for about 3% of the variance and the 7-day (weekly) cycle accounted for about 2% of the variance.
Downloaded by [Memorial University of Newfoundland] at 02:59 01 February 2015
Wilson & Tobacyk
49
After the variance accounted for by the monthly and weekly cycles was removed, the m o u n t of variance accounted for by the %day lunar cycle was about .2 of 1%. For repeat callers, the 3Cday (monthly) cycle accounted for about 1% of the variance and the 7-day (weekly) cycle accounted for about 4% of the total variance. After the variance accounted for by the monthly and weekly cycles was removed, the 28-day (lunar) cycle accounted for less than 1% of the total variance. These results indicate that although weekly and monthly cycles account for some of the variability in total crisis center calls (about 2% and 3% of the variance, respectively), the 28-day lunar cycle accounts for a negligible m o u n t of variance (less than 1Yo). Similarly, for repeat calls, the weekly and monthly cycles account for about 4% and 1% of the total variance, respectively, and the %-day lunar cycle accounts for less than 1% of the total variance. These results for both outcome variables show no significant relationship between lunar phases and frequency of crisis center calls. Our findings support Rotton and Kelly’s (1984) conclusion of no support for the lunar hypothesis. Part 2
Part 2 compared belief in lunar effects of workers in the same crisis center with beliefs of a comparison group of non-crisis-center workers (university students). It was hypothesized that the crisis center workers would report significantly greater belief in lunar effects than would the university student comparison group. This hypothesis was proposed because a crisis center setting may be conducive to constuction of an illusory correlation between occurrence of telephone calls and salient environmental cues, such as lunar phases. Illusory correlation refers to the tendency of persons who expect a relationship between two variables either to greatly overestimate the degree of relationship that exists or to impose a relationship when none exists (Fiske & Taylor, 1984). Lunar phases are accessible, salient cues, and the lunar effect is given much media attention. Thus, crisis center calls and lunar phases might be perceived as covarying on the basis of prior expectations, that is, via associative meaning (Chapman, 1%7). According to attribution theories (Heider, 1W; 1958; Kelley, 1%7), humans attempt to understand, predict, and control events. In a crisis center setting, the actual occurrence of crisis calls is unpredictable. This unpredictability might generate uncertainty and anxiety. The belief that one can, to some degree, predict the occurrence of crisis calls might provide the worker with greater perceived control and reduce uncertainty and anxiety. Thus, the belief that crisis center calls are correlated with lunar phases might provide a greater sense of understanding, prediction, and control.
50
The Journal of Social Psychology
The BILE Scale was administered to 87 workers at the crisis center described in Part 1 (Mage = 37.7 years, SD = 14.9) and to 102 university students (M age = 21.1 years, SD = 5.5) who were not crisis center workers. The BILE score measures the degree of belief in lunar effects, with higher scores associated with greater reported belief in lunar effects.
Downloaded by [Memorial University of Newfoundland] at 02:59 01 February 2015
Results As hypothesized, the crisis-center-worker group mean on the BILE Scale ( M = 26.78, SD = 8.12) was significantly greater than that of the comparison group (A4 = 22.32, SD = 7.76; t(187) = 4.71, p < .001). Although there is a substantial age difference between the crisis center workers (M age = 37.7) and the student comparison group (M age = 21. l), it appears that the significant difference in BILE scores between these two groups is not due to age differences. A multiple regression, with age and occupation (crisis center worker, student) as the predictor variables and BILE scores as the outcome variable, showed that age accounted for a nonsignificant portion of the BILE score variance, F(1, 186) = 1.09,ns, even when entered first into the regression equation. These findings are consistent with the notion that crisis center workers might tend to construct illusory correlations concerning lunar effects to reduce anxiety and provide greater experienced understanding, prediction, and control. These notions might be further explored in different life settings in which persons have varying degrees of actual ability to predict or control emotionally powerful events. As a caveat, these conclusions might be considered tentative because unmeasured selection factors distinguishing the two groups, for example, level of education, might influence susceptibility to illusory correlations and belief in lunar effects.
REFERENCES
Abel, E. L. (1976). Moon madness. Greenwich, CT: Fawcett. Angus, M. D. (1973). The rejection of two explanations of belief in a lunar influence on behavior. Unpublished master’s thesis, Simon Fraser University, Bumaby, BC, Canada. Campbell, D. E. (1982). Lunar-lunacy research: When enough is enough. Environment and Behavior, 14, 418-424. Chapman, L. J. (1%7). Illusory correlation in observational report. Journal of Verbal Learning and Verbal Behavior, 6, 151-155. Cyr, J. J., & Kalpin, R. A. (1987). Geophysical variables and behavior, XLVI. The lunar-lunacy relationship: A poorly evaluated hypothesis. Psychological Reports, 61, 391-400. Fiske, S. T., & Taylor, S. E. (1984). Social cognition. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley.
Wilson & Tobacyk
51
Garzino, S. (1982). Lunar effects on behavior: A defense of the empirical resea-ch. Environment and Behavior, 14, 395-417. Heider, F. (1944). Social perception and phenomenal causality. Psychological Review,
Downloaded by [Memorial University of Newfoundland] at 02:59 01 February 2015
51, 358-374.
Heider, F. (1958). The psychology of interpersonal relations. New York: Wiley. Kelley, H. H. (1%7). Attribution theory in social psychology. In D. Levine (Ed.), Nebraska Symposium on Motivation (Vol. 15, pp. 192-238). Lincoln: University of Nebraska Press. Lieber, A. L. (1978). The lunar effect: Biological tides and human emotions. Garden City, NJ: Doubleday. McDonald, R. L. (1966). Lunar and seasonal variations in obstetric factors. Journal of Genetic Psychology, 108, 81-87. Ornstein, R. (1978, November). Review of A. L. Lieber’s The lunar effect. Human Nature, 42). 21-22, 25-26. Rotton, J. (1982). [Review of Full moons by Paul Katzeffj. Skeptical Inquirer, 7(1), 62-64.
Rotton, J., and Kelly, I. W. (1984). Much ado about the full moon: A meta-analysis of lunar-lunacy research. Psychological Bulletin, 97(2), 286-306. Rotton, J.. and Kelly, I. W. (1985). A scale for assessing belief in lunar effects: Reliability and concurrent validity. Psychological Reports, 57, 239-245. Sarton, G. (1939). Lunar influences on living things. Isis, 30, 495-507. Schurman, A. G. (1948). The effect of the moon on childbirth. Virginia Medical Monthly, 76, 78. United States Naval Observatory (1985). The astronomical almanac. Washington, DC: United States Government Printing Office.
Received April 3, 1989
