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News & Reports bva congress
Making sense of uncertainty, risk and chance in public health Giving the plenary Wooldridge memorial lecture at the BVA Congress, David Spiegelhalter, statistician and fellow of the Royal Society, discussed the importance of communicating risk and uncertainty effectively and accurately
while still making the public aware of RISK communication is not just about ambiguity. what is said but about how it is said, and Professor Spiegelhalter noted that, in effective communication is particularly some situations, it could be misleading to important when trying to convey any give people the relative risk of a situation uncertainty and doubt during a crisis occurring, rather than an absolute risk, situation. This was the main message of as it basically meant giving them only the Wooldridge memorial lecture, which the worst case scenario. was delivered by David Spiegelhalter, Another option was to use professor of the public understanding analogies, stating ‘this risk is as big as of risk at the University of Cambridge, X’. One way of making comparisons during the BVA Congress at the London was through the use of micromorts, Vet Show in November last year. ‘the unit of human deadly risk’, with Professor Spiegelhalter began with 1 micromort equating to a one-in-athe topical example of avian influenza. million probability of sudden death. He pointed out that, although the The idea was that by giving people a November outbreak in the UK had BVA President John Blackwell presents David Spiegelhalter with the Wooldridge medal after his lecture on November 20 baseline (‘We face around 1 micromort been deemed to be a low risk to public a day just between getting up and health, there had already been a number going to bed’) they could then compare of news stories circulating about the how a ‘dull’ medical article had made the micromorts in another activity or possibility of its transfer to people. The headlines worldwide, when its original, situation (eg, hang-gliding equates to about fact that such information could begin to positively framed, title was expressed 8 micromorts). circulate, even before there was any actual negatively. Rather than 10 per cent of people crisis, demonstrated the importance of those having a genetic variant that reduced the risk working in public health, including vets, Low probability, high impact of high blood pressure, suddenly the new providing information as accurately and Professor Spiegelhalter noted there could ‘exciting’ title warned readers that nine in intelligibly as possible to the general public. also be situations in which very unlikely, but highly catastrophic, events needed to be reported. These scenarios required a One size does not fit all ‘We must have the humility to different approach, calling for relative risk However, Professor Spiegelhalter stressed admit uncertainty when we don’t as well as absolute risk to be provided, as that it was not always very clear who know. We can’t just get away with the aim was to ‘allow people to exercise exactly constituted the ‘general public’. He a paternalistic, “we know best”, their own risk appetite . . .’ and to tell them noted that people were very different; not that the information would change. In this only were there different groups, such as attitude anymore. We have to build manner individuals could apply their own concerned lay people or policymakers, but trust by being trustworthy. We have risk thresholds. even within those groups there was often to treat audiences with respect’ He closed his lecture by calling on vets considerable disparity between individuals’ working in public health to be prepared for numeracy or how comfortable they were in 10 people carried a gene that could increase disaster situations. It was vital not to wait engaging with scientific concepts. their blood pressure. Though this technique for a crisis to occur, he said, but to plan, to Using the right strategies to engage was often used in clever press releases to know one’s audience and its concerns, and with specific audiences could make all the make headlines appear more shocking, to be on good terms with reputable media difference in how information during a Professor Spiegelhalter stressed that the outlets. ‘We must have the humility to admit crisis was interpreted and acted upon. ‘You important thing for those working in public uncertainty when we don’t know. We can’t don’t just tell people,’ he said. ‘That’s what health was to anticipate how their audience just get away with a paternalistic, “we know is known as the “old deficit model”: the might receive the information depending on best”, attitude anymore. We have to build [idea that the] public, if you only tell them how it was framed. trust by being trustworthy. We have to treat facts, suddenly will become . . . very sensible Another technique, was ‘anchoring’. audiences with respect.’ people. That’s not how it works. It’s a twoRather than giving an audience an exact way process. We as the experts . . . have to estimate, like a median, instead a range could n Professor Spiegelhalter’s website on understand the concerns and beliefs of our be provided to convey uncertainty and risk. understanding uncertainty and statistics can audience.’ Visual aids such as spaghetti plots, which be found at http://understandinguncertainty. He went on to discuss how different showed an array of different possible futures org ways of presenting information could affect based on the most up-to-date information, an audience’s understanding, and began were useful as they estimated outcomes, doi: 10.1136/vr.g7591 with an example of ‘framing’, explaining January 17, 2015 | Veterinary Record | 65
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14/01/2015 16:42
Downloaded from http://veterinaryrecord.bmj.com/ on May 28, 2015 - Published by group.bmj.com
Making sense of uncertainty, risk and chance in public health Veterinary Record 2015 176: 65
doi: 10.1136/vr.g7591 Updated information and services can be found at: http://veterinaryrecord.bmj.com/content/176/3/65
These include:
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Notes
To request permissions go to: http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions To order reprints go to: http://journals.bmj.com/cgi/reprintform To subscribe to BMJ go to: http://group.bmj.com/subscribe/
News & Reports bva congress
Making sense of uncertainty, risk and chance in public health Giving the plenary Wooldridge memorial lecture at the BVA Congress, David Spiegelhalter, statistician and fellow of the Royal Society, discussed the importance of communicating risk and uncertainty effectively and accurately
while still making the public aware of RISK communication is not just about ambiguity. what is said but about how it is said, and Professor Spiegelhalter noted that, in effective communication is particularly some situations, it could be misleading to important when trying to convey any give people the relative risk of a situation uncertainty and doubt during a crisis occurring, rather than an absolute risk, situation. This was the main message of as it basically meant giving them only the Wooldridge memorial lecture, which the worst case scenario. was delivered by David Spiegelhalter, Another option was to use professor of the public understanding analogies, stating ‘this risk is as big as of risk at the University of Cambridge, X’. One way of making comparisons during the BVA Congress at the London was through the use of micromorts, Vet Show in November last year. ‘the unit of human deadly risk’, with Professor Spiegelhalter began with 1 micromort equating to a one-in-athe topical example of avian influenza. million probability of sudden death. He pointed out that, although the The idea was that by giving people a November outbreak in the UK had BVA President John Blackwell presents David Spiegelhalter with the Wooldridge medal after his lecture on November 20 baseline (‘We face around 1 micromort been deemed to be a low risk to public a day just between getting up and health, there had already been a number going to bed’) they could then compare of news stories circulating about the how a ‘dull’ medical article had made the micromorts in another activity or possibility of its transfer to people. The headlines worldwide, when its original, situation (eg, hang-gliding equates to about fact that such information could begin to positively framed, title was expressed 8 micromorts). circulate, even before there was any actual negatively. Rather than 10 per cent of people crisis, demonstrated the importance of those having a genetic variant that reduced the risk working in public health, including vets, Low probability, high impact of high blood pressure, suddenly the new providing information as accurately and Professor Spiegelhalter noted there could ‘exciting’ title warned readers that nine in intelligibly as possible to the general public. also be situations in which very unlikely, but highly catastrophic, events needed to be reported. These scenarios required a One size does not fit all ‘We must have the humility to different approach, calling for relative risk However, Professor Spiegelhalter stressed admit uncertainty when we don’t as well as absolute risk to be provided, as that it was not always very clear who know. We can’t just get away with the aim was to ‘allow people to exercise exactly constituted the ‘general public’. He a paternalistic, “we know best”, their own risk appetite . . .’ and to tell them noted that people were very different; not that the information would change. In this only were there different groups, such as attitude anymore. We have to build manner individuals could apply their own concerned lay people or policymakers, but trust by being trustworthy. We have risk thresholds. even within those groups there was often to treat audiences with respect’ He closed his lecture by calling on vets considerable disparity between individuals’ working in public health to be prepared for numeracy or how comfortable they were in 10 people carried a gene that could increase disaster situations. It was vital not to wait engaging with scientific concepts. their blood pressure. Though this technique for a crisis to occur, he said, but to plan, to Using the right strategies to engage was often used in clever press releases to know one’s audience and its concerns, and with specific audiences could make all the make headlines appear more shocking, to be on good terms with reputable media difference in how information during a Professor Spiegelhalter stressed that the outlets. ‘We must have the humility to admit crisis was interpreted and acted upon. ‘You important thing for those working in public uncertainty when we don’t know. We can’t don’t just tell people,’ he said. ‘That’s what health was to anticipate how their audience just get away with a paternalistic, “we know is known as the “old deficit model”: the might receive the information depending on best”, attitude anymore. We have to build [idea that the] public, if you only tell them how it was framed. trust by being trustworthy. We have to treat facts, suddenly will become . . . very sensible Another technique, was ‘anchoring’. audiences with respect.’ people. That’s not how it works. It’s a twoRather than giving an audience an exact way process. We as the experts . . . have to estimate, like a median, instead a range could n Professor Spiegelhalter’s website on understand the concerns and beliefs of our be provided to convey uncertainty and risk. understanding uncertainty and statistics can audience.’ Visual aids such as spaghetti plots, which be found at http://understandinguncertainty. He went on to discuss how different showed an array of different possible futures org ways of presenting information could affect based on the most up-to-date information, an audience’s understanding, and began were useful as they estimated outcomes, doi: 10.1136/vr.g7591 with an example of ‘framing’, explaining January 17, 2015 | Veterinary Record | 65
57-65 News.indd 65
14/01/2015 16:42
Downloaded from http://veterinaryrecord.bmj.com/ on May 28, 2015 - Published by group.bmj.com
Making sense of uncertainty, risk and chance in public health Veterinary Record 2015 176: 65
doi: 10.1136/vr.g7591 Updated information and services can be found at: http://veterinaryrecord.bmj.com/content/176/3/65
These include:
Email alerting service
Receive free email alerts when new articles cite this article. Sign up in the box at the top right corner of the online article.
Notes
To request permissions go to: http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions To order reprints go to: http://journals.bmj.com/cgi/reprintform To subscribe to BMJ go to: http://group.bmj.com/subscribe/
