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Virulence Publication details, including instructions for authors and subscription information: http://www.tandfonline.com/loi/kvir20
Our changing world: impacts on health and infectious diseases Eleni Patrozou
a
a
Infectious Diseases, Hygeia Hospital, Erythrou Stavrou 9, Marousi, Attika, Greece, 15123 Accepted author version posted online: 07 Jul 2015.
Click for updates To cite this article: Eleni Patrozou (2015): Our changing world: impacts on health and infectious diseases, Virulence, DOI: 10.1080/21505594.2015.1062961 To link to this article: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/21505594.2015.1062961
Disclaimer: This is a version of an unedited manuscript that has been accepted for publication. As a service to authors and researchers we are providing this version of the accepted manuscript (AM). Copyediting, typesetting, and review of the resulting proof will be undertaken on this manuscript before final publication of the Version of Record (VoR). During production and pre-press, errors may be discovered which could affect the content, and all legal disclaimers that apply to the journal relate to this version also.
PLEASE SCROLL DOWN FOR ARTICLE Taylor & Francis makes every effort to ensure the accuracy of all the information (the “Content”) contained in the publications on our platform. However, Taylor & Francis, our agents, and our licensors make no representations or warranties whatsoever as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability for any purpose of the Content. Any opinions and views expressed in this publication are the opinions and views of the authors, and are not the views of or endorsed by Taylor & Francis. The accuracy of the Content should not be relied upon and should be independently verified with primary sources of information. Taylor and Francis shall not be liable for any losses, actions, claims, proceedings, demands, costs, expenses, damages, and other liabilities whatsoever or howsoever caused arising directly or indirectly in connection with, in relation to or arising out of the use of the Content. This article may be used for research, teaching, and private study purposes. Any substantial or systematic reproduction, redistribution, reselling, loan, sub-licensing, systematic supply, or distribution in any form to anyone is expressly forbidden. Terms & Conditions of access and use can be found at http:// www.tandfonline.com/page/terms-and-conditions
Our changing world: impacts on health and infectious diseases Eleni Patrozou Infectious Diseases,Hygeia Hospital,Erythrou Stavrou 9,Marousi,Attika,Greece,15123 Email: [email protected] Abstract
Downloaded by [New York University] at 11:46 21 July 2015
Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. There is widespread concern about the potential impact of global climate change on the distribution and burden of infectious diseases threats.In this special issue of Virulence the authors through their thoughtful contributions have attempted to raise the attention to this significant subject that is frequently overlooked. Keywords climate change, epidemiology, health, infectious diseases, adaptation, Epidemiology, Evolution, Gram negative bacteria and infections, Gram positive bacteria and infections, Infection
1
This special issue of Virulence is dedicated to the topic of climate change and health. Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. The rate of change is now faster than during any period over the past thousand years and it is expected to accelerate further in the upcoming years. But global warming is only part of the story. Earth system changes, such as changes in sea level, ocean circulation, the carbon cycle, the water cycle and more, are expected, challenging our species
Downloaded by [New York University] at 11:46 21 July 2015
survival.1 It has been suggested that climate change could be the main global health threat of the 21st century.2 Establishing a causative relationship between climate change and alteration in the incidence and distribution of infectious diseases can be a challenging task, given the multivariate, interacting and non-linear causation of most diseases. Nevertheless, the literature contains numerous examples providing strong evidence that climate change has already affected the epidemiology of infectious diseases, especially the ones that are transmitted by insect vectors and through contaminated water. Hence, the effects of climate change have been established for several infectious diseases such as malaria,3 dengue fever, 4 leptospirosis 5 and cholera 6 .Furthermore, extension of geographic distribution has been noted for several vector borne diseases including tick born encephalitis in Sweden,7 Chikungunya in the Americas,8 Lyme disease in Eastern Canada9 and malaria in East Africa3. In addition multiple reports are suggesting that other types of community or nosocomial infectious diseases, caused by bacterial pathogens can exhibit seasonality and as such they may also be affected by climate change.10,11,12,13 This is considered a topic that has not received the deserved attention, especially among clinicians, even though they will be the front line responders to the health effects of climate change.
2
This issue begins with an overview on climate change and heath, using an eco-social approach provided by Dr Maya Gislason.14 Human and natural systems cannot be considered independently. Diagnosis and containment of climate driven emerge of infectious diseases is the obvious task for the medical community. However this will not suffice. It is essential that the medical community contributes in capacity building for social and ecological systems and this can only be achieved through interdisciplinary collaborations, beyond health sciences.
Downloaded by [New York University] at 11:46 21 July 2015
A review on extreme weather events and infectious diseases outbreaks follows, expertly authored by late Anthony McMichael,15 internationally recognized for his pioneering work in environmental health, particularly in climate change and health. Extreme events have been witnessed historically as a result of natural climate variability. However, changing climate has resulted in changes in the frequency, intensity, duration and timing of extreme weather events with direct consequences on the epidemiology of certain infectious diseases.1The paper by McMichael provides recent and historical examples of extreme weather events impacting on the epidemiology of infectious diseases and projects into the future. The effect of climate change on migration and migrant health, with a special focus on infectious diseases is detailed by Dr Celia McMichael.16 Climate change has a direct effect on environmental systems and social conditions affecting food yields, water supply, population movements and migration patterns. It is estimated that the number of environmental migrants in the next decades will project in the tens to hundreds of millions leading to an increased risk for infectious diseases outbreaks due to poor access to sanitation, poor water and food quality. 17 Additionally, in the view of increased migration, health care systems will be challenged as existing service provisions have been developed for native populations and are often ill-equipped in providing accessible, appropriate and good quality services for migrants.
3
Developing responses to climate change requires actions beyond the scientific world as this institutes a public and political issue. Collaboration between different disciplines, including academics, policy makers and non-governmental organizations, is necessary in order to develop adaptation strategies and lessen health risks.18 Furthermore, even though the majority of greenhouse gas emissions are attributed to developed countries, it is the developing regions of the world that are affected the most by climate change .19 As such climate change should be viewed
Downloaded by [New York University] at 11:46 21 July 2015
under the prism of social justice and effective adaptation in order to prepare and respond to the new evolving conditions will require collaborations among countries. The fundamental role of adaptation is discussed by Dr Ulisses Confalonieri.20 The final section of this issue relates to the new technologies available in global surveillance of emerging infectious diseases, reviewed by Dr Eirini Christaki.21 Systems of global surveillance are essential for the timely detection of outbreaks, the identification of syndromes caused by previously unknown pathogens and the rapid implementation of preventive and control measures. Effective surveillance is a challenge of outmost importance in under-sourced, developing countries with poor national public health systems, which are expected to be affected the most by climatic change. Climate change, involving changes in mean climatic conditions and increased variability including extreme weather events, poses unprecedented health risks. 22 There is widespread concern about the potential impact of global climate change on the distribution and burden of infectious diseases threats.1 In this special issue of Virulence the authors through their thoughtful contributions have attempted to raise the attention to this significant subject that is frequently overlooked.
4
References 1. IPCC, 2012: Summary for Policymakers. In: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation [Field, C.B., V. Barros, T.F. Stocker, D. Qin, D.J. Dokken, K.L. Ebi, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, G.-K. Plattner, S.K. Allen, M. Tignor, and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1-19. 2. Campbell-Lendrum D, Bertollini R, Neira M, Ebi K, McMichael A. Health and climate change: a roadmap
Downloaded by [New York University] at 11:46 21 July 2015
for applied research. Lancet 2009; 373: 1663–5; doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(09)60926-0. 3. Pascual M, Ahumada JA, Chaves LF, Rodo X, Bouma M. Malaria resurgence in the East African highlands: temperature trends revisited. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 2006;103:5829–5834 4. Chang AY, Fuller DO, Carrasquillo O, Beier JC. Social justice, climate change, and dengue. Health Hum Rights 2014; 16:93-104 5. Lau CL, Smythe LD, Craig SB, Weinstein P. Climate change, flooding, urbanisation and leptospirosis: fuelling the fire? Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg. 2010 Oct;104(10):631-8; doi: 10.1016/j.trstmh.2010.07.002. 6. Lipp EK , Huq A, Colwell RR. Effects of global climate on infectious disease: the cholera model. Clin Microbiol Rev. 2002 Oct;15:757-70 7. Lundkvist A, Wallensten A, Vene S, Hjertqvist M. Tick-borne encephalitis increasing in Sweden, 2011. Euro Surveill. 2011;16(39):pii=19981. 8. Staples JE, Fischer M. Chikungunya Virus in the Americas-What a Vectorborne Pathogen Can Do. N Engl J Med 2014;371:887–889; doi:10.1056/NEJMp1407698 9. Brownstein JS, Holford TR, Fish D. Effect of climate change on Lyme disease risk in North America. Ecohealth. 2005 Mar;2:38-46. 10. Fisman D, Patrozou E, Carmeli Y, Perencevich E, Tuite AR, Mermel LA; Geographical Variability of Bacteremia Study Group. Geographical variability in the likelihood of bloodstream infections due to gram-negative bacteria: correlation with proximity to the equator and health care expenditure. PLoS One. 2014 Dec 18;9(12):e114548; doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0114548. eCollection 2014 5
11. Perencevich EN, McGregor JC, Shardell M, Furuno JP, Harris AD, Morris JG Jr, Fisman DN, Johnson JA.. Summer peaks in the incidences of gram-negative bacterial infection among hospitalized patients. Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol 2008;29:1124-1131 12. Richet H. Seasonality in gram negative and health-care associated infections. Clin Microbiol Infect 2012;18:934-940 13. Mermel LA, Machan JT, Parenteau S. Seasonality of MRSA infections. PLoS ONE 2011;6(3):e17925; doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0017925.
Downloaded by [New York University] at 11:46 21 July 2015
14. Gislason M. Climate change, health and infectious diseases. Virulence 2015; 15. McMichael AJ. Extreme weather events and infectious diseases outbreaks. Virulence 2015; 16. McMichael C. Climate change related migration and infectious diseases. Virulence 2015; 17. McMichael C, Barnett J, McMichael AJ. An ill wind? Climate change, migration and health. Environ Health Perspect 2012;120:646-654; doi: 10.1289/ehp.1104375 18. Stephenson J, Crane SF, Levy C, Maslin M. Population, development and climate change: links and effects on human health. Lancet 2013;382:1665-73; doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(13)61460-9. 19. McMichael AJ. Globalization, climate change and human health. N Engl J Med 2013;368:1335-43; doi:10.1056/NEJMra1109341 20. Confalonieri UE, Menezes JA, Margonari de Souza C. Climate change and adaptation of the health
sector: the case of infectious diseases. Virulence 2015; 21. Christaki E. New technologies in predicting, preventing and controlling emerging infectious diseases. Virulence 2015; 22. Adhikari NK, Fowler RA, Bhagwanjee S, Rubenfeld GD. Critical care and the global burden of critical illness in adults. Lancet 2010;375:1339-46; doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(10)60446-1.
6
Virulence Publication details, including instructions for authors and subscription information: http://www.tandfonline.com/loi/kvir20
Our changing world: impacts on health and infectious diseases Eleni Patrozou
a
a
Infectious Diseases, Hygeia Hospital, Erythrou Stavrou 9, Marousi, Attika, Greece, 15123 Accepted author version posted online: 07 Jul 2015.
Click for updates To cite this article: Eleni Patrozou (2015): Our changing world: impacts on health and infectious diseases, Virulence, DOI: 10.1080/21505594.2015.1062961 To link to this article: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/21505594.2015.1062961
Disclaimer: This is a version of an unedited manuscript that has been accepted for publication. As a service to authors and researchers we are providing this version of the accepted manuscript (AM). Copyediting, typesetting, and review of the resulting proof will be undertaken on this manuscript before final publication of the Version of Record (VoR). During production and pre-press, errors may be discovered which could affect the content, and all legal disclaimers that apply to the journal relate to this version also.
PLEASE SCROLL DOWN FOR ARTICLE Taylor & Francis makes every effort to ensure the accuracy of all the information (the “Content”) contained in the publications on our platform. However, Taylor & Francis, our agents, and our licensors make no representations or warranties whatsoever as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability for any purpose of the Content. Any opinions and views expressed in this publication are the opinions and views of the authors, and are not the views of or endorsed by Taylor & Francis. The accuracy of the Content should not be relied upon and should be independently verified with primary sources of information. Taylor and Francis shall not be liable for any losses, actions, claims, proceedings, demands, costs, expenses, damages, and other liabilities whatsoever or howsoever caused arising directly or indirectly in connection with, in relation to or arising out of the use of the Content. This article may be used for research, teaching, and private study purposes. Any substantial or systematic reproduction, redistribution, reselling, loan, sub-licensing, systematic supply, or distribution in any form to anyone is expressly forbidden. Terms & Conditions of access and use can be found at http:// www.tandfonline.com/page/terms-and-conditions
Our changing world: impacts on health and infectious diseases Eleni Patrozou Infectious Diseases,Hygeia Hospital,Erythrou Stavrou 9,Marousi,Attika,Greece,15123 Email: [email protected] Abstract
Downloaded by [New York University] at 11:46 21 July 2015
Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. There is widespread concern about the potential impact of global climate change on the distribution and burden of infectious diseases threats.In this special issue of Virulence the authors through their thoughtful contributions have attempted to raise the attention to this significant subject that is frequently overlooked. Keywords climate change, epidemiology, health, infectious diseases, adaptation, Epidemiology, Evolution, Gram negative bacteria and infections, Gram positive bacteria and infections, Infection
1
This special issue of Virulence is dedicated to the topic of climate change and health. Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. The rate of change is now faster than during any period over the past thousand years and it is expected to accelerate further in the upcoming years. But global warming is only part of the story. Earth system changes, such as changes in sea level, ocean circulation, the carbon cycle, the water cycle and more, are expected, challenging our species
Downloaded by [New York University] at 11:46 21 July 2015
survival.1 It has been suggested that climate change could be the main global health threat of the 21st century.2 Establishing a causative relationship between climate change and alteration in the incidence and distribution of infectious diseases can be a challenging task, given the multivariate, interacting and non-linear causation of most diseases. Nevertheless, the literature contains numerous examples providing strong evidence that climate change has already affected the epidemiology of infectious diseases, especially the ones that are transmitted by insect vectors and through contaminated water. Hence, the effects of climate change have been established for several infectious diseases such as malaria,3 dengue fever, 4 leptospirosis 5 and cholera 6 .Furthermore, extension of geographic distribution has been noted for several vector borne diseases including tick born encephalitis in Sweden,7 Chikungunya in the Americas,8 Lyme disease in Eastern Canada9 and malaria in East Africa3. In addition multiple reports are suggesting that other types of community or nosocomial infectious diseases, caused by bacterial pathogens can exhibit seasonality and as such they may also be affected by climate change.10,11,12,13 This is considered a topic that has not received the deserved attention, especially among clinicians, even though they will be the front line responders to the health effects of climate change.
2
This issue begins with an overview on climate change and heath, using an eco-social approach provided by Dr Maya Gislason.14 Human and natural systems cannot be considered independently. Diagnosis and containment of climate driven emerge of infectious diseases is the obvious task for the medical community. However this will not suffice. It is essential that the medical community contributes in capacity building for social and ecological systems and this can only be achieved through interdisciplinary collaborations, beyond health sciences.
Downloaded by [New York University] at 11:46 21 July 2015
A review on extreme weather events and infectious diseases outbreaks follows, expertly authored by late Anthony McMichael,15 internationally recognized for his pioneering work in environmental health, particularly in climate change and health. Extreme events have been witnessed historically as a result of natural climate variability. However, changing climate has resulted in changes in the frequency, intensity, duration and timing of extreme weather events with direct consequences on the epidemiology of certain infectious diseases.1The paper by McMichael provides recent and historical examples of extreme weather events impacting on the epidemiology of infectious diseases and projects into the future. The effect of climate change on migration and migrant health, with a special focus on infectious diseases is detailed by Dr Celia McMichael.16 Climate change has a direct effect on environmental systems and social conditions affecting food yields, water supply, population movements and migration patterns. It is estimated that the number of environmental migrants in the next decades will project in the tens to hundreds of millions leading to an increased risk for infectious diseases outbreaks due to poor access to sanitation, poor water and food quality. 17 Additionally, in the view of increased migration, health care systems will be challenged as existing service provisions have been developed for native populations and are often ill-equipped in providing accessible, appropriate and good quality services for migrants.
3
Developing responses to climate change requires actions beyond the scientific world as this institutes a public and political issue. Collaboration between different disciplines, including academics, policy makers and non-governmental organizations, is necessary in order to develop adaptation strategies and lessen health risks.18 Furthermore, even though the majority of greenhouse gas emissions are attributed to developed countries, it is the developing regions of the world that are affected the most by climate change .19 As such climate change should be viewed
Downloaded by [New York University] at 11:46 21 July 2015
under the prism of social justice and effective adaptation in order to prepare and respond to the new evolving conditions will require collaborations among countries. The fundamental role of adaptation is discussed by Dr Ulisses Confalonieri.20 The final section of this issue relates to the new technologies available in global surveillance of emerging infectious diseases, reviewed by Dr Eirini Christaki.21 Systems of global surveillance are essential for the timely detection of outbreaks, the identification of syndromes caused by previously unknown pathogens and the rapid implementation of preventive and control measures. Effective surveillance is a challenge of outmost importance in under-sourced, developing countries with poor national public health systems, which are expected to be affected the most by climatic change. Climate change, involving changes in mean climatic conditions and increased variability including extreme weather events, poses unprecedented health risks. 22 There is widespread concern about the potential impact of global climate change on the distribution and burden of infectious diseases threats.1 In this special issue of Virulence the authors through their thoughtful contributions have attempted to raise the attention to this significant subject that is frequently overlooked.
4
References 1. IPCC, 2012: Summary for Policymakers. In: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation [Field, C.B., V. Barros, T.F. Stocker, D. Qin, D.J. Dokken, K.L. Ebi, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, G.-K. Plattner, S.K. Allen, M. Tignor, and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1-19. 2. Campbell-Lendrum D, Bertollini R, Neira M, Ebi K, McMichael A. Health and climate change: a roadmap
Downloaded by [New York University] at 11:46 21 July 2015
for applied research. Lancet 2009; 373: 1663–5; doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(09)60926-0. 3. Pascual M, Ahumada JA, Chaves LF, Rodo X, Bouma M. Malaria resurgence in the East African highlands: temperature trends revisited. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 2006;103:5829–5834 4. Chang AY, Fuller DO, Carrasquillo O, Beier JC. Social justice, climate change, and dengue. Health Hum Rights 2014; 16:93-104 5. Lau CL, Smythe LD, Craig SB, Weinstein P. Climate change, flooding, urbanisation and leptospirosis: fuelling the fire? Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg. 2010 Oct;104(10):631-8; doi: 10.1016/j.trstmh.2010.07.002. 6. Lipp EK , Huq A, Colwell RR. Effects of global climate on infectious disease: the cholera model. Clin Microbiol Rev. 2002 Oct;15:757-70 7. Lundkvist A, Wallensten A, Vene S, Hjertqvist M. Tick-borne encephalitis increasing in Sweden, 2011. Euro Surveill. 2011;16(39):pii=19981. 8. Staples JE, Fischer M. Chikungunya Virus in the Americas-What a Vectorborne Pathogen Can Do. N Engl J Med 2014;371:887–889; doi:10.1056/NEJMp1407698 9. Brownstein JS, Holford TR, Fish D. Effect of climate change on Lyme disease risk in North America. Ecohealth. 2005 Mar;2:38-46. 10. Fisman D, Patrozou E, Carmeli Y, Perencevich E, Tuite AR, Mermel LA; Geographical Variability of Bacteremia Study Group. Geographical variability in the likelihood of bloodstream infections due to gram-negative bacteria: correlation with proximity to the equator and health care expenditure. PLoS One. 2014 Dec 18;9(12):e114548; doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0114548. eCollection 2014 5
11. Perencevich EN, McGregor JC, Shardell M, Furuno JP, Harris AD, Morris JG Jr, Fisman DN, Johnson JA.. Summer peaks in the incidences of gram-negative bacterial infection among hospitalized patients. Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol 2008;29:1124-1131 12. Richet H. Seasonality in gram negative and health-care associated infections. Clin Microbiol Infect 2012;18:934-940 13. Mermel LA, Machan JT, Parenteau S. Seasonality of MRSA infections. PLoS ONE 2011;6(3):e17925; doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0017925.
Downloaded by [New York University] at 11:46 21 July 2015
14. Gislason M. Climate change, health and infectious diseases. Virulence 2015; 15. McMichael AJ. Extreme weather events and infectious diseases outbreaks. Virulence 2015; 16. McMichael C. Climate change related migration and infectious diseases. Virulence 2015; 17. McMichael C, Barnett J, McMichael AJ. An ill wind? Climate change, migration and health. Environ Health Perspect 2012;120:646-654; doi: 10.1289/ehp.1104375 18. Stephenson J, Crane SF, Levy C, Maslin M. Population, development and climate change: links and effects on human health. Lancet 2013;382:1665-73; doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(13)61460-9. 19. McMichael AJ. Globalization, climate change and human health. N Engl J Med 2013;368:1335-43; doi:10.1056/NEJMra1109341 20. Confalonieri UE, Menezes JA, Margonari de Souza C. Climate change and adaptation of the health
sector: the case of infectious diseases. Virulence 2015; 21. Christaki E. New technologies in predicting, preventing and controlling emerging infectious diseases. Virulence 2015; 22. Adhikari NK, Fowler RA, Bhagwanjee S, Rubenfeld GD. Critical care and the global burden of critical illness in adults. Lancet 2010;375:1339-46; doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(10)60446-1.
6
