462 Original article

Pelvic lymph node status prediction in melanoma patients with inguinal lymph node metastasis Sandro Pasqualia, Simone Mocellina, Francesco Bigolina, Antonella Vecchiatob, Maria C. Montescoc, Antonio Di Maggiod and Carlo R. Rossia,b The extent of the groin lymph node (LN) dissection for melanoma is still being debated, particularly in the case of micrometastasis (sentinel lymph node positive). We tested the predictive values of the criteria for pelvic dissection currently suggested by national guidelines (number of positive inguinal LN, Cloquet’s LN status, and preoperative computed tomographic scan) and the inguinal lymph node ratio (LNR, the ratio between metastatic and excised LNs) to identify patients with pelvic metastasis. We analyzed the predictive values of the above-mentioned criteria in 157 patients who underwent an ilioinguinal dissection, with a focus on their negative predictive values (NPV), which might help identify low-risk patients who might safely avoid pelvic dissection, pelvic dissection reduction, and error rate. Fortyfour (26.7%) patients had pelvic LN metastasis. In patients with micrometastasis (17.3% had pelvic LN metastasis), LNR less than 0.1 and Cloquet’s LN status achieved clinically relevant NPV (95.7 and 95.5%, respectively) and pelvic dissection reduction (38.4 and 84.6%, respectively), whereas the error rate was 1.7 and 3.0%, respectively. Lower NPVs were observed for number of positive inguinal LNs (88.6%) and computed tomographic scan (78.4%).

Introduction The management of patients with melanoma lymph node (LN) metastasis in the groin is still being debated, given the morbidity of the procedure and the limited available evidence on the survival benefit for lymphadenectomy [1–6]. Inguinal lymphadenectomy is routinely performed in patients with groin LN metastasis from melanoma. Pelvic dissection, however, is recommended by several national clinical practice guidelines and by several authors in patients with a clinically positive LN, radiological imaging showing pelvic LN metastasis [computed tomographic (CT) scan], at least three positive inguinal LNs, and metastasis in the Cloquet’s LN (which is considered the ‘sentinel node’ of the pelvic field) [7–9]. Other guidelines and authors’ suggestions include performing an elective ilioinguinal lymphadenectomy when subclinical [sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) positive] or clinical LN metastasis is detected in the groin [10–12]. Given these different recommendations, it is not surprising that surgeons have different opinions on how to tailor the extension of lymphadenectomy to a single patient, particularly in cases with a positive SLNB [13], where the risk of harboring pelvic disease is 6–16% [14–19]. 0960-8931 © 2014 Wolters Kluwer Health | Lippincott Williams & Wilkins

Accuracy was enhanced when these criteria were considered in multivariable models. In patients with macrometastasis (36.8% had pelvic LN metastasis), LNR and current selection criteria achieved low NPVs and a high error rate. Avoiding pelvic dissection may be safe in sentinel lymph node-positive patients with LNR less than 0.1. The prediction of pelvic metastasis seems to be less accurate for patients with clinically positive LNs. Melanoma Res 24:462–467 © 2014 Wolters Kluwer Health | Lippincott Williams & Wilkins. Melanoma Research 2014, 24:462–467 Keywords: lymph node dissection, melanoma, pelvic lymph node a Surgery Branch, Department of Surgery, Oncology and Gastroenterology, University of Padova, bMelanoma and Sarcomas Unit, cPathology Unit and d Radiology Unit, Veneto Institute of Oncology, IRCCS, Padova, Italy

Correspondence to Sandro Pasquali, MD, Surgery Branch, Department of Surgery, Oncology and Gastroenterology, University of Padova, via Giustiniani 2, 35128 Padova, Italy Tel: + 39 049 821 1851; fax: + 39 049 651891; e-mail: [email protected] Received 10 February 2014 Accepted 6 June 2014

In the absence of a randomized trial that can compare survival and morbidity after inguinal or ilioinguinal dissection for patients with groin LN metastasis, the identification of selection criteria for pelvic lymphadenectomy characterized by a high negative predictive value (NPV, that is, the pelvic LNs are really negative when predicted as negative) may be helpful in selecting patients who can avoid a pelvic lymphadenectomy with a low error rate (i.e. the possibility when a patient predicted as pelvic LN negative has melanoma metastasis in the pelvic LN) [20–22]. This is of particular importance for patients with a low risk of pelvic disease, such as in the case of a positive SLNB [14–19]. At our institution, ilioinguinal dissection is performed as the standard surgery for patients with inguinal LN metastasis, thus offering the opportunity to search for predictors that can potentially identify patients at a low risk of having pelvic disease. To identify these patients, we have studied the predictive value of the abovementioned selection criteria (the number of positive inguinal LNs, the pelvic LN status at preoperative CT scan, and the Cloquet’s LN status) as well as the inguinal lymph node ratio (LNR, which is the ratio of the metastatic LNs over the excised LNs [23–28]). DOI: 10.1097/CMR.0000000000000109

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Pelvic lymph node metastasis in melanoma Pasquali et al. 463

Methods Retrospective data for patients with primary melanomas treated between 1990 and 2010 were retrieved from a prospectively collected database according to the following selection criteria: (a) ilioinguinal lymphadenectomy performed for regional LN metastasis located in the groin and (b) detailed number of positive LNs for pelvic (i.e. iliac and obturator) anatomic regions. At our institution, SLNB has been performed since 1993, and between 1990 and 1992, lymphadenectomy was performed only for clinically positive LNs. The study was approved by the Melanoma Research Committee of the Veneto Institute of Oncology. Patients had provided their consent for research purposes. The description of ilioinguinal dissection has been reported in detail elsewhere [25,29]. Cloquet’s LN, which was defined as the LN node removed from under the inguinal ligament and medial to the external iliac vein, was marked by the surgeons who performed the dissection and was evaluated using the standard pathological protocol for LNs of lymphadenectomy. Since 2000, CT scans have been performed routinely in patients with clinically positive inguinal LNs or with high-risk primary tumors [i.e. American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) T4 substages], as recommended by the Italian guidelines [12]. Pelvic LNs were considered at risk of metastasis when they presented an enhanced contrast or had a major diameter greater than 1 cm. Analyses were carried out to assess the predictive value of the inguinal LNR, the number of positive LNs, the CT scan, and the Cloquet’s LN status to identify patients with a low risk of pelvic LN metastasis. The following variables were considered for the analyses: patients’ age and sex, primary tumor site (trunk, lower extremity), Breslow tumor thickness (as a continuous variable recorded in mm), ulceration (absent, present), Clark level (II–IV, V), mitotic rate of the dermal invasive melanoma (as a continuous variable indicating the number of mitoses per mm2 [30,31]), performance of SLNB (yes, no), LN tumor burden (micrometastasis, macrometastasis), number of excised and positive sentinel lymph node(s) (SLN), number of excised and positive LN(s) at lymphadenectomy, inguinal LNR (LNR A, < 0.1, LNR B, 0.11–0.25, LNR C, > 0.25 [24,25]), and pathological status of pelvic LNs (negative, positive). Radiological status (negative, positive) of pelvic LNs at CT scan and information on the pathological status of Cloquet’s LN (negative, positive) were considered when available. Fisher’s exact test for categorical variables and the Mann–Whitney U-test for continuous variables were used to assess the association between covariates and pelvic LN status. Pathology assessment of pelvic LNs was compared with the number of positive inguinal LN

(s), preoperative CT scans, Cloquet’s LN status, and LNR. Each case was classified as true positive (TP), true negative (TN), false positive (FP), or false negative (FN) to assess diagnostic accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and the positive and the negative value of each predictor. The NPV was calculated as TN/(FN + TN). Pelvic lymphadenectomy reduction and error rates were calculated as (TP + FP)/(TP + FP + TN + FN) and FN/(TP + FP + TN + FN), respectively. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and the area under the curve were calculated for each selection criterion and also for criteria considered together. The number of positive inguinal LNs and the LNR were considered in separate predictive models to avoid the issue of multicollinearity. Statistical analyses were carried out with a 95% confidence interval and an α-error of 0.05. Data were computed using STATA 10/SE (StataCorp, College Station, Texas, USA).

Results Among 157 melanoma patients who fulfilled the inclusion criteria, pelvic LN metastasis was detected at pathological examination in 42 cases (26.7%), of whom 14/81 (17.3%) presented with micrometastasis and 28/67 presented with macrometastasis (36.8%). Patients with pelvic LN metastasis were older than pelvic LN-negative patients (P = 0.013), had thicker primary tumors (P = 0.011), a greater incidence of macrometastasis (P = 0.007), and a higher LNR (P < 0.001) and number of positive LNs (P < 0.001, Table 1). Micrometastasis (positive SLN)

The highest NPV with the lower error rate was achieved by the inguinal LNR (Table 2). The inguinal LNR and the pathological status of the Cloquet’s LNs had the highest NPV (95.7 and 95.5%, respectively): if these criteria were used to screen patients preoperatively, these NPVs would allow for pelvic lymphadenectomy reductions of 38.4 and 84.6%, respectively. These clinical benefits would be associated with errors of 1.7 and 3.0%, respectively. The number of positive inguinal LNs and the preoperative CT scan had lower NPVs (88.6 and 78.4%): if these criteria were used to screen patients preoperatively, these NPVs would allow for a high pelvic reduction rate (86.4 and 86.0%, respectively), but would be associated with a high error rate (9.9 and 18.6%, respectively) (Table 2). Macrometastasis (clinically positive LN)

Overall, NPVs were lower than the desirable 90% in case of macrometastasis and error rates were higher (Table 2). Among patients with micrometastasis, inguinal LNR had the highest NPV (85.7%): if inguinal LNR was used to screen patients preoperatively, this NPV would allow for

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Table 1 Distribution of clinicopathologic features among patients with negative and positive pelvic inguinal lymph node(s) after ilioinguinal lymphadenectomy Variables Age (years) Sex Female Male Primary tumor site Lower limb Trunk Unknown primary Tumor thickness (mm) Ulceration Absent Present LN tumor burden Positive SLN Clinically positive LN Positive inguinal LNs Excised inguinal LNs Inguinal LNR A (< 0.1) B (0.11–0.25) C (>0.25) AJCC N stage N1 (1 positive LN) N2 (2–3 positive LNs) N3 (≥4 positive LNs)

Negative pelvic LNs (N = 115) [N (%)]

Positive pelvic LNs (N = 42) [N (%)]

P-value

61.57 (95% CI 51.28–69.50)

0.013

52.96 (IQR 40.74–66.49) 70 (60.9) 45 (39.1) 86 20 9 Median 2.60

21 (50.0) 21 (50.0)

(74.8) (17.4) (7.8) (IQR 1.47–4.0)

35 3 2 Median 3.53

46 (51.1) 44 (48.9)

0.274

(83.3) (11.9) (4.8) (IQR 2.26–6.50)

0.321 0.011

19 (52.8) 17 (47.2)

67 (58.3) 48 (41.7) Median 1 (IQR 1–2) Median 10 (IQR 7.5–14)

1.000

0.007

14 (33.3) 28 (66.7) Median 3 (IQR 1–5.75) Median 11 (IQR 8–14)

< 0.001 0.505

24 (40.0) 25 (41.6) 11 (18.4)

15 (22.7) 23 (34.8) 28 (42.5)

< 0.001

61 (53.0) 29 (25.2) 25 (21.8)

0 (0.0) 13 (31.0) 29 (69.0)

< 0.001

Statistically significant values have been underlined to highlight relevant results. AJCC, American Joint Committee on Cancer; CI, confidence interval; IQR, interquartile range; LN, lymph node; LNR, lymph node ratio; SLN, sentinel lymph node.

Accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, pelvic lymphadenectomy reduction, and error rate of the lymph node ratio, number of positive inguinal lymph nodes, Cloquet’s lymph node status, and pelvic lymph node(s) status at computed tomographic scan

Table 2

Scenarios LNR A (< 0.1) Positive SLN Clinically positive LN ≥ 3 positive inguinal LNs Positive SLN Clinically positive LN Cloquet’s LN status Positive SLN Clinically positive LN Pelvic LN status at CT scan Positive SLN Clinically positive LN

Accuracy (%) Sensitivity (%) Specificity (%) PPV (%) NPV (%) Pelvic lymphadenectomy reduction (%) Error (%) 48.3 53.0

87.5 92.0

42.3 29.3

18.9 44.2

95.7 85.7

38.4 21.2

1.7 3.0

84.0 60.3

42.9 59.3

92.5 60.9

54.5 47.1

88.6 71.8

86.4 53.5

9.9 15.1

96.2 65.7

80.0 25.0

100.0 87.0

100.0 50.0

95.5 69.0

84.6 82.8

3.8 25.7

74.4 47.7

27.3 57.7

90.6 41.0

50.0 39.5

78.4 59.3

86.0 41.5

18.6 16.9

Pelvic lymphadenectomy reduction: patients predicted as pelvic LN negative/all the patients. Error rate: false negative/all the patients. False-negative patients were predicted as pelvic LN negative even they had pelvic LN metastasis. CT, computed tomography; LN, lymph node; LNR, lymph node ratio; NPV, negative predictive value; PPV, positive predictive value; SLN, sentinel lymph node.

a pelvic lymphadenectomy reduction of 21.1%, with an error rate of 3%. A number of positive inguinal LNs, Cloquet’s LN status, and preoperative CT scans had lower NPVs (71.8, 69.0, and 59.3% respectively): if these criteria were used to screen patients preoperatively, these NPVs would allow for a high pelvic reduction rate (53.5, 82.8, and 41.5%), but would be associated with a high error rate (15.1, 25.7, and 16.9%, respectively).

exploratory evaluation of prediction models. The number of positive inguinal LNs and the LNR were included in two separate multivariate models to avoid the issue of covariate collinearity as these variables share some information (i.e. the number of metastatic LNs). The two multivariable models were more accurate than single predictors, as shown by the areas under the ROC curves (Table 3).

Discussion Prediction model for patients with micrometastasis

Considering that the predictive criteria achieved a clinically relevant NPV and a low error rate in patients with micrometastasis (but not for macrometastasis), we performed an

The series analyzed in this study comprises a group of melanoma patients with LN metastasis who underwent an ilioinguinal LN dissection which, at our institution, is performed as the standard surgery for inguinal LN

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Pelvic lymph node metastasis in melanoma Pasquali et al. 465

Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for each predictive variable and for two multivariable models, which consider the number of positive inguinal lymph node(s) and the inguinal lymph node ratio each, in patients with micrometastasis

Table 3

Number of positive inguinal LNa Inguinal LNRb Cloquet’s LN CT scan Model 1 (including number of positive inguinal LNa) Model 2 (including inguinal LNRb)

ROC area

SE

95% CI

0.677 0.613 0.719 0.688 0.784

0.070 0.045 0.064 0.073 0.078

0.566–0.778 0.503–0.723 0.605–0.811 0.579–0.789 0.685–0.873

0.816

0.070

0.713–0.892

CI, confidence interval; CT, computed tomography; LN, lymph node; LNR, lymph node ratio; ROC, receiver operating characteristic. a Categorical variable, cutoff 3. b Categorical variable, cutoff LNR A versus B and C.

melanoma metastasis. We investigated predictors of pelvic LN metastasis (the inguinal LNR, the number of positive inguinal LNs, the Cloquet’s LN status, and the preoperative CT) in patients with micrometastasis (i.e. who underwent lymphadenectomy for a positive SLNB) and macrometastasis (i.e. who underwent lymphadenectomy for clinically positive LNs) to identify patients at a low risk of pelvic LN metastasis.

dissection [32], can identify whether patients need a pelvic dissection with a high level of evidence. The predictive value of the inguinal LNR may be explained considering that this parameter includes the number of excised LNs. Patients with lower values of LNR (e.g. LNR A) can have less positive LNs or more excised LNs than patients who present higher values of LNR. Different hypotheses can explain the predictive role of the LNR. Intuitively, a thorough dissection allows identification of all metastatic LNs and provides an optimal stratification of the risk of harboring pelvic LN metastasis. Moreover, the number of excised LNs might be a surrogate of the immunological response against the tumor as the immune system shows a greater activity against melanoma cells in LNs that are far from those having melanoma metastasis [33]. This suggests that a greater number of inguinal nodes may limit the spread of melanoma cells to the pelvic nodes.

Inguinal LNR A (≤ 0.1) had an NPV of 95.7 and 85.7% in patients with micrometastasis and macrometastasis, respectively, for predicting the status of pelvic LNs that was associated with a potential reduction rate of 38.4 and 21.2%, respectively. The overall error rate was lower in patients with micrometastasis (1.7 vs. 3.0%). These results suggest that the inguinal LNR can be of particular relevance for patients with micrometastasis, who are at a low risk of harboring pelvic disease (17.2% in this study and 6–16% is other series [14–19]), and may be considered for a less extensive dissection.

The number of positive inguinal LNs, although associated independently with the pelvic LN status, shows lower NPVs than the desirable 90%, both in the case of micrometastasis (88.6%) and in the case of macrometastasis (71.8%). Although this parameter has been widely considered an independent predictor of pelvic LN metastasis, this study questions its predictive effectiveness in light of the relatively low NPVs and high error rates. Similarly, Strobbe and colleagues studied patients who underwent ilioinguinal dissection for clinically positive LNs, and reported an NPV of 78% for the number of positive inguinal LNs, a value far less than the desirable 90%. Further data are needed to ascertain whether the number of positive inguinal LNs identifies patients at a low risk of pelvic LN metastasis who may avoid pelvic dissection.

The association between inguinal LNR and pelvic LN metastasis was showed for the first time by Chu et al. [14] in 40 SLNB-positive patients. Our analysis adds meaningful information to the existing literature because it suggests that the presence of pelvic LN metastasis after a positive inguinal SLNB can be predicted with a high NPV (95.7%). Accordingly, roughly 40% of patients with a positive inguinal SLNB may avoid pelvic dissection, with only 1.7% of patients having LN disease left in their groin. The prediction of a pelvic LN metastasis can be limited by the routine methodology for the pathologic assessment of the pelvic LNs, which is standard hematoxylin and eosin (H&E) staining. This process may miss melanoma deposits in some LNs and therefore leads to a greater number of patients with a FN result, thus limiting the value of predictive factors and tools. Although H&E staining of the LNs after a lymphadenectomy remains the standard method to detect melanoma LN metastasis, only a randomized trial, such as the EAGLE FM Study from the Australia and New Zealand Melanoma Trial Group comparing the outcomes of inguinal and ilioinguinal

In this series, the pathological status of the Cloquet’s LN had an NPV of 95.5% (error rate 3.8%) and 69.0% (error rate 25.7%) in patients with micrometastasis and macrometastasis, respectively. Interestingly, if SLNB-positive patients with negative Cloquet’s LN had avoided pelvic dissection, the reduction rate would have been up to 84%, with an error rate of 3.8%. Previous studies report NPVs of 94–97% in the case of micrometastasis [34,35] and of 80–95% in the case of macrometastasis [36–38]. Despite these findings, in a study on 53 patients with micrometastasis, Chu et al. [34] noted that the Cloquet’s LN was rarely involved with melanoma cells (3.8%). A high concordance between the presence of metastasis in the Cloquet’s and pelvic LNs was observed (NPV of 94%), but, considering the low incidence of metastasis in the Cloquet’s node, the authors suggest avoiding performance of Cloquet’s LN examination in patients with micrometastasis. Remarkably, our series has a higher positivity rate of the Cloquet’s LN in the case of micrometastasis (15%, 4/26). Although the positivity rates of NPVs and Cloquet’s LN lead to consideration of

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Cloquet’s LN as an effective predictive tool after a positive SLNB, the error rate that we identified (3.8%) limits its clinical value along with other drawbacks intrinsic to the biopsy of the Cloquet’s LN. In fact, the lymph flow does not always pass from the inguinal to the pelvic LNs through the femoral canal, where the Cloquet’s LN is located [38,39]. Furthermore, in this study, we have investigated the diagnostic value of the preoperative CT scan, which poorly characterized the pelvic LNs. This is shown by the lack of independent predictive value and by the low NPVs, which are 78.4% in patients with micrometastasis (error rate 18.6%) and 59.3% in patients with macrometastasis (error rate 16.9%). Considering that CT scans have a diagnostic accuracy of greater than 90% for staging the LNs in patients with melanoma irrespective of their location [40], this imaging technique is expected to have a high diagnostic relevance for the characterization of pelvic LNs, especially for macrometastasis. Van der Ploeg et al. [41] reported an NPV of 91% for preoperative CT scans in patients with macrometastasis and concluded that pelvic dissection should be performed only in patients with positive pelvic LNs. In contrast, Allan et al. [42] studied the diagnostic value of the CT scan in 72 patients with macrometastasis and considered an NPV of 86% insufficient to identify patients who might safely avoid pelvic lymphadenectomy. As the characterization of the pelvic LNs by the CT scan seems more controversial than expected, authors are considering PETCT for selection of patients for pelvic dissection [43]. Finally, this study explored the predictive accuracy of the considered selection criteria in multivariable predictive tools for patients with micrometastasis who are at a lower risk of pelvic LN metastasis. In fact, a reduction in the extension of groin dissection is less safe in patients with macrometastasis because of the greater risk of LN disease and the lower predictive values shown by the current selection criteria. The area and the ROC curve was greater for multivariable models – two models were constructed that considered the positive inguinal LNs and the inguinal LNR separately to avoid the issue of multicollinearity than for each predictor (Table 3), suggesting that a predictive tool encompassing several selection criteria can be valuable in the identification of patients who may safely avoid pelvic dissection. There are some limitations to the clinical applicability of the results of this study. Clearly, the availability of inguinal LNR after surgery limits its clinical utility. Despite this drawback, given that roughly one-third of surgeons perform only inguinal dissection for groin melanoma metastasis irrespective of other risk factors [13], the inguinal LNR may be considered for patient counseling and follow-up as low LNR values suggest a high likelihood of having negative pelvic LNs. The value of LNR is influenced by the LN count, suggesting that

the achievement of satisfactory nodal retrieval is of great importance to allow risk stratification for pelvic metastasis according to the LNR [10,17]. Furthermore, if a predictive tool, such as a nomogram, will include inguinal LNR as well as other predictive variables (including those considered in this study and others, such as lymph flow drainage) and achieve high predictive values, pelvic dissection may be tailored on patient and tumor characteristics and performed as a second operation in the relatively small group of patients with pelvic disease after a positive SLNB (6–17.2%). Nevertheless, given these limitations and the above-mentioned risk of pathological downstage of LN metastasis, only a randomized trial, such as the EAGLE FM Study [32], can define the optimal management of patients with groin LN melanoma metastasis. Conclusion

Pending a randomized trial, this study offers interesting insights for the identification of SLN-positive patients at a low risk of pelvic LN metastasis. In SLN-positive patients, avoiding pelvic dissection may be safe when LNR is lower than 0.1 and Cloquet’s LN is negative, although the error rate was slightly higher in the latter case. The use of the number of positive inguinal LNs and the preoperative CT scan may offer a less accurate prediction, on the basis of the lower NPVs and higher error rate. This study also shows that the prediction of pelvic metastasis seems less accurate for patients with clinically positive LNs, suggesting that pelvic dissection cannot safely be avoided in this scenario.

Acknowledgements The authors thank Ms Chiara Longhi and Mrs Marilyn Ward for editing the manuscript. Conflicts of interest

There are no conflicts of interest.

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Pelvic lymph node status prediction in melanoma patients with inguinal lymph node metastasis.

The extent of the groin lymph node (LN) dissection for melanoma is still being debated, particularly in the case of micrometastasis (sentinel lymph no...
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