People-Technology-Ecosystem Integration: A Framework to Ensure Regional Interoperability for Safety, Sustainability, and Resilience of Interdependent Energy, Water, and Seafood Sources in the (Persian) Gulf.

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HFSXXX10.1177/0018720815623143Human FactorsPeople-Technology-Ecosystem Integration

SPECIAL SECTION: 2015 Human Factors Prize Finalist

People-Technology-Ecosystem Integration: A Framework to Ensure Regional Interoperability for Safety, Sustainability, and Resilience of Interdependent Energy, Water, and Seafood Sources in the (Persian) Gulf Najmedin Meshkati, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, Maryam Tabibzadeh, California State University, Northridge, Ali Farshid, Mansour Rahimi, and Ghena Alhanaee, University of Southern California, Los Angeles Objective: The aim of this study is to identify the interdependencies of human and organizational subsystems of multiple complex, safety-sensitive technological systems and their interoperability in the context of sustainability and resilience of an ecosystem. Background: Recent technological disasters with severe environmental impact are attributed to human factors and safety culture causes. One of the most populous and environmentally sensitive regions in the world, the (Persian) Gulf, is on the confluence of an exponentially growing number of two industries—nuclear power and seawater desalination plants—that is changing its land- and seascape. Method: Building upon Rasmussen’s model, a macrosystem integrative framework, based on the broader context of human factors, is developed, which can be considered in this context as a “meta-ergonomics” paradigm, for the analysis of interactions, design of interoperability, and integration of decisions of major actors whose actions can affect safety and sustainability of the focused industries during routine and nonroutine (emergency) operations. Conclusion: Based on the emerging realities in the Gulf region, it is concluded that without such systematic approach toward addressing the interdependencies of water and energy sources, sustainability will be only a short-lived dream and prosperity will be a disappearing mirage for millions of people in the region. Application: This multilayered framework for the integration of people, technology, and ecosystem—which has been applied to the (Persian) Gulf—offers a viable and vital approach to the design and operation of large-scale complex systems wherever the nexus of water, energy, and food sources are concerned, such as the Black Sea. Keywords: system design and analysis, macroergonomics (“meta-ergonomics”) and environment, accident analysis, seawater desalination, nuclear power

Address correspondence to Najmedin Meshkati, Viterbi School of Engineering, University of Southern California, KAP 244, Los Angeles, CA 90089-0021, USA; e-mail: [email protected]. HUMAN FACTORS Vol. 58, No. 1, February 2016, pp. 43–57 DOI: 10.1177/0018720815623143 Copyright © 2016, Human Factors and Ergonomics Society.

Many of the challenges and opportunities for human factors research for the future are global, or at least international, in scope. . . . How fitting an expansion of the connotation of human factors it would be to have the human factors community around the world to take a leadership role in this regard, working toward the improvement of international communication and actively promoting collaborative efforts toward shared goals. (emphasis in the original; Nickerson, 1992, p. 373) Introduction

Human ingenuity has resulted in complex technological systems whose accidents rival in their effects the greatest of natural disasters, sometimes with even higher death tolls and greater environmental damage. A common characteristic of these systems, such as nuclear power plants, is that sizable amounts of potentially hazardous materials are concentrated in sites under the centralized control of human operators. The effects of catastrophic breakdowns of these complex systems, created by anthropogenic or natural causes, pose serious threats and long-lasting health and environmental consequences for workers in the facility, for the local public, and possibly for the whole country and the neighboring regions. One of the most populous and environmentally sensitive regions in the world, the Persian Gulf (hereafter, the Gulf), is on the confluence of an exponentially growing number of two new complex, large-scale technological systems— nuclear power and seawater desalination plants—that is changing its land- and seascape. There is an increasing reliance on seawater desalination in the Gulf as well as expected

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operations of at least three newly built nuclear power plants in the next 5 years (and many more planned for the next 20 years). This emerging trend is in addition to ongoing offshore oil and gas production and their combined effects on the sea life and fragile ecosystem. All these operations, in light of routine heavy maritime traffic of different naval and commercial vessels, pose a serious and continuously increasing risk on the livelihood of millions of people who will be living in the coastal area in the near future. The Gulf countries ought to think about the unthinkable, which should not be that difficult to do, especially after witnessing two major lowprobability, high-consequence technological calamities with long-lasting environmental effects and regional aftermaths in just the past 5 years: The BP Deepwater Horizon offshore oil drilling platform explosion in 2010, which killed 11 workers and spilled millions of gallons of crude oil into the Gulf of Mexico, and the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident in Japan in 2011 that released radiation (which is still seeping) to the atmosphere and spilled thousands of gallons of contaminated radioactive water into the Pacific Ocean and affecting sea life (Buesseler, 2014). The underlying rationale and the major objective of this paper is, by learning lessons from the past and building upon the underlying premise of the human factors, to provide a systematic framework to address the potential interaction among people, technology, and ecosystem in the Gulf through (a) a brief overview of primary human factors root causes of major technological disasters with severe environmental impacts, (b) a brief analysis of the state and role of seawater desalination and nuclear energy in the Gulf and their impacts on its ecosystem, and (c) a proposed systematic framework for the analysis and design of interoperability of major actors whose actions can affect safety and sustainability of the Gulf during routine and nonroutine (emergency) operations, as the primary building block for the integration of people-technology-ecosystem. A Brief Overview of Primary Human Factors Root Causes of the BP Deepwater Horizon and the Fukushima Disasters

The BP Deepwater Horizon offshore drilling rig, which exploded on April 20, 2010, in the

Gulf of Mexico, killed 11 workers and injured 17 others and initiated one of the worst environmental disasters in American history. Over the course of 87 days, until the flow finally stopped on July 15, 2010, an estimated 171 million gallons of oil had leaked into the Gulf of Mexico (Natural Resources Defense Council, 2015), and its financial and monetary damages may run up to $68.2 billion (Eaton, 2015). The important contribution of human performance in this accident has been extensively discussed and reported by the U.S. Chemical Safety and Hazard Investigation Board (in press). The critical role of communication and interactions of key players, as well as the safety culture of the involved companies, have also been addressed in multiple sections of the official accident investigation bodies, such as reports by the National Academy of Engineering and National Research Council (2011) and the National Commission on the BP Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill and Offshore Drilling (2011). It may come as a surprise to some people that the Fukushima Daiichi accident, which was caused by a natural disaster—the March 11, 2011, Tohoku earthquake and tsunami—was an anthropogenic accident. All investigations have concluded that Fukushima Daiichi was mostly preventable (Acton & Hibbs, 2012) and that the natural hazards acted only as a triggering mechanism for the ensuing disaster. And a recent study goes even further by asserting that “the Fukushima accident was preventable” (Synolakis & Kanoglu, 2015). In the words of Dr. Kiyoshi Kurokawa, chairman of the National Diet (Parliament) of Japan Fukushima Accident Independent Investigation Commission (NAIIC), Fukushima was “a man-made disaster” and “made in Japan.” Because Japan’s nuclear industry failed to absorb the lessons learned from Three Mile Island and Chernobyl nuclear accidents, “it was this mindset that led to the Fukushima Daiichi disaster” (NAIIC, 2012). Other official reports, such as the one by the U.S. National Academy of Sciences (2014), have also acknowledged and extensively discussed the instrumental role of safety culture in this accident. Furthermore, according to the most recent voluminous report by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA; 2015), the regulation


People-Technology-Ecosystem Integration

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Figure 1. Major cities in the Persian Gulf. Reprinted from Summary of the State of the Marine Environment Report (p. 6), by Regional Organization for the Protection of the Marine Environment, 2013, retrieved from http://www.ropme.org/Uploads/SOMER/SOMER-2013SummaryWeb.pdf. Copyright 2013 by ROPME. Reprinted with permission.

guidelines and procedures were not adequate concerning safety culture, and it stated that “it is necessary to take an integrated approach that takes account for complex interactions between people, organizations and technology” (IAEA, 2015, p. 67). The human factors root causes of these accidents follow previous major, complex systems accidents, such as Three Mile Island, Bhopal, and Chernobyl, where problems from display and control designs all the way to supervisory and organizational factors contributed to those accidents (Meshkati, 1990, 1991). A Snapshot of the State of Nuclear Energy, Seawater Desalination, and Seafood in the Ecosystem of the Gulf

The Gulf is a marine environment that is surrounded by eight countries (Iran, the United Arab Emirates [UAE], Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman, Kuwait, Iraq, and Bahrain). According to the Regional Organization for the Protection of the Marine Environment (ROPME) State of the

Marine Environment Report, the total population of these countries, which was around 150 million in 2010, is expected to reach 200 million in 2030 (ROPME, 2013). Given the land shortage in Kuwait, Qatar, and the UAE, most of the population are living in urban settlements situated on the coast (see Figure 1) and are heavily dependent on marine ecosystems (ROPME, 2013). There are approximately “800 offshore oil and gas platforms and 25 major oil terminals situated in the region” (Haapkylä, Ramade, & Salvat, 2007). Some 25,000 tankers pass through the Strait of Hormuz annually and transport approximately 60% of all the oil shipped globally (Haapkylä et al., 2007). Oil exploration, production, transport, and discharges of mainly drilling wastes, operational sludge, and oily fluids from unused fracturing fluids or acids are major contributors to pollution levels in the Gulf (Madany, Jaffar, & AI-Shirbini, 1998; ROPME, 2013). The Gulf is a semiclosed shallow body-ofwater system; it has an average water depth of 36 m



Figure 2. Schematic of surface currents and circulation processes in the Persian Gulf. Reprinted from “Physical Oceanography of the Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, and the Gulf of Oman: Results from the Mt Mitchell Expedition,” by R. M. Reynolds, 1993, Marine Pollution Bulletin, 27, p. 49. Copyright 1993 by Elsevier.

and a maximum internal depth of 94 m, with very high salinity (Sale et al., 2011). The dominant path of flow is counterclockwise (Figure 2), where ocean water with normal salinity enters the Gulf from the Strait of Hormuz, flows westward along Iran’s side, and turns southeast to exit the Gulf, saltier than it started, after passing the south Arab countries (Reynolds, 1993). The residency of water in the Gulf is estimated to be between 2 and 5 years (Reynolds, 1993). In other words, a molecule of water that enters into the Gulf through its only opening to the “open” sea from the Strait of Hormuz will circle and eventually leave this body of water more than 2 years later. The vital role of seawater desalination in the Gulf. According to Lattemann and Höpner (2008), the largest number of desalination plants in the world can be found in the Gulf, with a total capacity of 11 million cubic meters per day, which is equivalent to 45% of global daily water production. Arab countries in the Gulf are widely dependent on this water body for their drinking water needs. In the past 30 years, the capacity of the desalination plants has been increasing from 5 million cubic meters per day in 1985 to 24 million

cubic meters per day in 2015 (Saif, 2012). It has been projected that water demand will increase by 50% by 2050 (Saif, 2012). Almost all of these countries will have no other options than the Gulf for water. According to a recent published report by the Gulf Research Center (Bachellerie, 2012) and other sources, the contribution of seawater desalination in producing potable water for the Arab countries of the Gulf includes the following: •• The UAE, above 90% (Dubai, 98.8%, Sharjah, 80%; with approximately 3 days of water supply in reserve) •• Qatar, 99% (with approximately 2 days of water supply in reserve) •• Kuwait, 95% •• Oman, 80% •• Bahrain, over 80% •• Saudi Arabia, more than 70% (About Saudi Arabia, 2015)

A noteworthy fact in this context is the vulnerability and risk exposure of the Gulf desalination plants to oil spills and other seawater contamination, which could easily force their closure. For



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Figure 3. Location of major seawater desalination plants in the Persian Gulf. Adapted from Summary of the State of the Marine Environment Report (p. 6), by Regional Organization for the Protection of the Marine Environment, 2013, retrieved from http://www.ropme.org/Uploads/SOMER/SOMER2013SummaryWeb.pdf. Copyright 2013 by ROPME. Adapted with permission.

example, the Seki oil tanker incident in 1994, in the UAE, according to Elshorbagy and Elhakeem (2008), would have turned into a major disaster if the spilled oil had reached the intakes of the desalination plant in Fujaira of the UAE. Also, in July 1997, diesel fuel spilled from a grounded barge in Sharjah, UAE, entered the intake of a desalination plant, and led to a major contamination of the water supply of an estimated half million people (Elshorbagy & Elhakeem, 2008). This event left the city without water for a day (Mardini, 1997). Iran is now facing a severe drought condition. Most recently, a former Iranian minster of agriculture has warned about the possibility of “approximately 50 million people, 70% of Iranians will have no choice but to leave the country in the coming years because of water scarcity” (Kalantari, 2015). Iran’s share of water demand met by desalination grew from around 0.2% in 2004 (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations [FAO], 2009] to around 1% in 2010 (World Bank, 2012). Although this fractional amount is small in comparison to the

aforementioned level for the Arab states, officials in Tehran are strategically considering the Gulf as the primary water resource for not only the southern parts of the country but also for the central parts in the future. Projections suggest that in 10 years, approximately 9 million people, who will account for almost 10% of the country’s population, will depend on desalinated water in the southern areas of Iran (Mivehchi, 2015). Figure 3 depicts locations of major seawater desalination plants in the Gulf. This figure, however, does not represent the number of those plants. The vital role of seafood sources in the Gulf. In 2010, the average per capita consumption of seafood in Arab countries of the Gulf was calculated to be 14.4 kg per year. The UAE and Oman have the highest seafood consumption rates worldwide, at approximately 28.6 kg per year for each nation (FAO, 2011). Figure 4 presents the 2011 per capita consumption of seafood in the Middle East. For example, for one of the countries with the largest per capita consumption, Oman, we calculated that



Figure 4. Per capita consumption of seafood in the Middle East. Reprinted from Market in the Middle East: Market, Trade and Consumption, by Food and Agriculture Organization, 2011, retrieved from http://www .fao.org/in-action/globefish/market-reports/resource-detail/en/c/338542/. Copyright 2011 by FAO.

approximately 70% of the consumed stock originates from the Gulf water. Regardless of the type of the seawater desalination technology (thermal or reverse osmosis), each produces brine (a mixture of concentrated minerals, cleaning chemicals, and heavy metal due to corrosion; Lattemann & Höpner, 2008), which needs to be disposed safely. For instance, addition of cleaning chemicals in the reverse osmosis technology may include alkaline (pH 11–12) or acidic (pH 2–3) solutions with additives, such as detergents (e.g., dodecylsulfate), complexing agents (e.g., EDTA), oxidants (e.g., sodium perborate), or biocides (e.g., formaldehyde) (Lattemann & Höpner, 2008). The brine almost always is discharged back to the source sea, which could significantly affect the ecosystem and seafood resources. Nuclear power in the Gulf. It seems that the Gulf region is destined to be dotted with nuclear power plants in the next few decades and is becoming the world’s main bazaar for nuclear reactor vendors in the near future. Both the UAE and Saudi Arabia have plans to have operational nuclear power plants before 2020. The UAE has already signed contracts with a South Korean consortium to build four reactors, Barakah Units 1 through 4, in Abu Dhabi. Construction of Unit 1 is now more than 73% complete, and Unit 2 is 50% complete, and they are expected to become operational in 2017 and 2018, respectively (“Reactor Vessel Installed,”

2015). Construction on Units 3 and 4 of Barakah has started, and it is expected that all four units at Barakah will begin operation by 2020 (“Construction Starts,” 2014). Saudi Arabia announced plans to construct 16 nuclear power reactors over the next 20 years, with the first reactor online in 2022 (World Nuclear Association, 2015b). The decision on the location(s) of these reactors is neither made nor announced yet. However, it is expected that a sizable number of them could be located on the Gulf coast. Other Gulf states, such as Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar, have also expressed interest in nuclear power for electricity generation and seawater desalination purposes (World Nuclear Association, 2015a). In addition to its operational nuclear power reactor in the coastal city of Bushehr on the Gulf, Iran also plans to build more (two to four) reactors in the Bushehr area for electricity generation and seawater desalination (“Russia Interested in Cooperation,” 2013; “Salehi: Nuclear Talks Progressing Well,” 2015). Figure 5 depicts the current and future status of nuclear power plants and their locations in the Gulf. The primary concern of nuclear power plants in the Gulf is the potential for a Chernobyl-type nuclear accident with massive radiation fallout. However, accidental release of radioactive contaminated discharged water from these plants, in light of aforementioned water residency in the Gulf, is another major concern.



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Figure 5. Locations and numbers of nuclear power plants in the Persian Gulf. Adapted from Summary of the State of the Marine Environment Report (p. 6), by Regional Organization for the Protection of the Marine Environment, 2013, retrieved from http://www.ropme.org/Uploads/SOMER/SOMER-2013SummaryWeb .pdf. Copyright 2013 by ROPME. Adapted with permission.

The Need for a System-Oriented Approach Toward Safe Interoperability of the Gulf Countries and Their Actors Operating Seawater Desalination and Nuclear Power Plants

Despite (surmountable) political wrangling and cultural differences in the Gulf, a critically important and perhaps unique feature of this region is the acute interdependency of the littoral states on each other’s actions (or inactions) and the tight coupling of their livelihood and future together. As attested in the previous section, the umbilical cords of the southern states of the Gulf are attached to this large reservoir; it is their primary source of water and seafood, and the source of water for energy production and refining, both fossil and fissile (future nuclear power). An energy disaster with spillover effect, therefore, would have dire consequences on safe water, food, and energy production.

The adverse effect of “tyranny of small decisions” on the ecosystem of the Gulf. In order to avoid what the late influential economist Alfred E. Khan (1966) has referred to as the “tyranny of small decisions” in his timeless analysis, we have to develop and utilize an encompassing system-oriented framework. As also stated by E. P. Odum (1993), piecemeal approaches to the ecosystem would primarily result in partial enhancement and suboptimization of environment life support. Piecemeal decisions of building desalination and nuclear power plants by individual countries in the Gulf in their own territories, in the context of the Gulf’s ecosystem, represent a textbook example of a series of “small decisions” that should be avoided and which, according to Khan (1966) and W. E. Odum (1982)—who believed Khan’s concept “has great applicability to environmental problems” (W. E. Odum, 1982,



Figure 6. A multilayer interaction model for top-down and bottom-up coordination. Reprinted from Proactive Risk Management in a Dynamic Society (p. 53), by J. Rasmussen and I. Svedung, 2000, retrieved from https://www.msb.se/ribdata/filer/pdf/16252.pdf. Copyright 2000 by the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (MSB). Reprinted with permission.

p. 728) and has extensively studied several major environmental issues (e.g., coastal wetlands on the East Coast of the United States, ecological integrity of the Florida Everglades)— would certainly and eventually lead to environmental degradation. Odum’s recommendation was that planners and decision makers should develop a “holistic perspective” and “must have a large-scale perspective encompassing the effects of all their little decisions” (W. E. Odum, 1982, p. 729). The Gulf and its resources, as Hardin (1968) suggested, can also be considered as “the commons” from which each country alone seeks to “maximize its gain.” If this uncontrolled “freedom-in-a-commons” process continues, it will eventually lead to the “tragedy of commons” and its demise. As an example, any unilateral overusage of water resources or significant disposal of waste (brine from desalination) contributes to this eventual tragedy. A proposed four-layer framework for interoperability analysis of key players in the Gulf. Based on the stated analysis in previous sections, there is an urgent need to develop a system-oriented

framework for the interoperability analysis of involved key players’ instrumental role in sustainability and resilience of the Gulf ecosystem, with the main focus on the two areas of nuclear power and seawater desalination activities. This framework can be a proactive approach to consider and analyze all involved key players and their interactions and influences on and from each other in an integrated way. This system-oriented framework is our proposed solution to avoid the aforementioned “tyranny of small decisions.” This framework is the primary building block for the integration of people, technology, and ecosystem in the Gulf. The introduced framework in this paper was proposed by Tabibzadeh and Meshkati (2015); its theoretical foundation originated from a three-layered model proposed by Rasmussen, Pejtersen, and Goodstein (1994) and was further elaborated in Rasmussen and Svedung (2000). Rasmussen’s original model relies on the propagation of interactions between work domain “bottom-up” requirements and “top-down” social practice and management style (Figure 6). In this model, which analyzes internal interactions within



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Level of meta-system interactions Community of the Gulf countries

I Level of bi-lateral interactions among countries

Iran Sa a Saudi Arabia UAE

II

Iran & UAE

III

Level of bi-lateral work interactions

Interactions among operators within related organizations in all three countries

IV

Level of worksite operations interactions

Figure 7. Four-layer framework for the interoperability analysis of multiple organizations/ key players in the Persian Gulf.

each key player’s organization, bottom-up propagation relates to functional constraints. These constraints determine the structure and the content of communication between work activities and decision makers. On the other end, top-down propagation influences the form of communication. The introduced framework, which includes four layers, enables systematic analysis of interactions among multiple organizations (Figure 7). In this figure, Level I (equivalent to or same as Layer I) represents metasystem interactions as an integrated system, that is, a system of systems, which models and manages the interac-

tions of all existing organizations at a social level. In the context of our study, this level comprises an organized community of the Gulf countries and possibly their designated entity that monitors the interactions of involved key players in the Gulf region and enforces needed rules and regulations for effective interactions of those key players and the safety of that region. This formation can also include other national and international actors and agencies, especially in the two main areas of nuclear and desalination activities. An example of such formation can be ROPME, which is an existing regional intergovernmental and multilateral



organization in the Gulf that includes all the eight littoral states. Level II illustrates the bilateral interactions of involved key players in the Gulf region. In Figure 7, we considered a sample of the three main involved Gulf countries of Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE for the purpose of illustration simplicity. Interactions in this layer are top level or organizational. Level III is work related and captures key players’ bilateral interactions at the operations level. In the context of our study, Level II of modeled interactions focuses on toplevel management and organizational components of each of the involved countries of Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. In Level III, the bilateral operational related interactions of these three countries are captured and analyzed. In addition to the bilateral interactions of these three countries, as well as other key involved players that are not illustrated in Figure 7, each country has its own embedded, multilayered framework for the analysis of internal cooperation and collaborations of various stakeholders within that country. We have developed another framework in this study to further elaborate and address these crucial levels of interactions and interoperability of related organizations within each country, for example, the nuclear power industry and the desalination industry, in this domain. Finally, Level IV models worksite operations interactions, which take place among operators of related organizations in the stated countries. This level captures the lowest level of work activities. As much as there is a need for organizational compatibility and harmony in the other three levels of the framework, operators of different involved organizations need to be able to effectively interact with each other in handling both regular and emergency response activities. In this introduced framework, higher levels fit onto lower levels. For instance, the top level projects on the second layer as a decomposition of an integrated control structure into separate bilateral organizational interactions. Similarly, the intersection of two key players in the second layer is projected as a separate component onto the third level to capture the bilateral work interactions of those two key players. Finally, thirdlayer components project onto the fourth level as

interactions among operators within the identified key players. The introduced four-layer framework provides the basis for needed interoperability of responsible actors in different Gulf countries. This new integrative approach, which covers activities from worksite all the way to country level in a systemic fashion, can be considered as a unique, unprecedented, and encompassing “meta-ergonomics” paradigm. To complement this framework and to operationalize it at the country level, Meshkati and Tabibzadeh (2015) have developed a public policy–based model to capture needed coordination and collaborations of related organizations within each country, mainly in the area of desalination and nuclear activities in the Gulf region, both in routine and nonroutine (emergency) situations. Assuring resilience in the Gulf system. In this context, we adopt definitions and applications relevant to ecological resilience described in Rahimi and Madni (2014). They define resilience as the underlying capacity of a system to maintain desired services in the face of a fluctuating environment and significant changes in human use. Resilience-related issues affecting the Gulf ecosystem include disruptions caused by human agents in a social hierarchy, automated system disruptions propagating through the technological components, disruptions at the intersections of the social and technical systems, and unpredictable system changes. The proposed framework in this paper possesses many required features of resilience as delineated by Sheridan (2008). He, by referring to the work of Hollnagel, Woods, and Leveson (2006), suggests that management responsibility to maintain resilience in complex sociotechnical systems should, among others, emphasize anticipating future possible incidents and monitor cautious measurement of a system’s health and state variables, and recourse preparedness. In designing our framework, we also considered the essential element for resilience by Meadows (2008), who asserted that “resilience arises from a rich structure of many feedback loops that can work in different ways to restore a system even after a large perturbation” (p. 76). The proposed framework is capable of continuously monitoring a system’s health and its



key performance indicators and displaying early warning of the impending disaster (from either the nuclear or desalination subsystems). It also enables rapid, multilayered team building and employs many lateral and vertical feedback loops to the organization level to sustain system performance, which according to Meshkati and Khashe (2015) is a requirement for system resilience. It also proactively monitors impending transitions to instability and the trade-off between resilience and other ecosystem properties (such as amount of electricity production versus degree of water salinity prior to a major system failure). Framework generalizability and application to other ecosystems. It is noteworthy that the discussed problems affecting the Gulf are not unique to that region. These problems are being felt in other parts of the world with similar sociotechnical dimensions. For example, the need for a system-oriented approach toward integration of people, technology, and ecosystem is equally significant to the Black Sea, which is also a semiclosed sea, facing similar safety and sustainability challenges. The Black Sea and its straits have traditionally been the main route of transporting oil from the Caucasus area to Europe. However, “today the traffic intensity of the Turkish straits has reached the limit, while liquid bulk terminal capacity is growing” (Osheyko, 2013, p. 76). Also according to reliable sources, there is an estimate of 7 billion barrels of recoverable resources under the deep-water areas of the Black Sea (International Energy Agency, 2011). These reservoirs, which are starting to be explored by Turkey, are typically located in depths of more than 2,000 m, requiring “ultra-deep-water” drilling to dig to a depth of over 5,000 m, which is “of the highest complexity . . . (that) usually involves high risks and several associated problems” (Wilson, 2012, p. 92; see Meshkati, Calis, & Celebi, 2012). The Black Sea will also be the site for Turkey’s second and third planned nuclear power plants, respectively, in the coastal cities of Sinop (which could have up to four nuclear reactors) and Igneada (“Ground Broken,” 2015; “Town Near Bulgaria,” 2011). The Baltic Sea, which is surrounded by some of the most developed industrialized countries in

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the world, is also facing similar issues concerning its ecosystem (Folke, Hammer, & Jansson, 1991; Mitsch & Jorgensen, 1989). Sample of specific recommendations to initiate the process of people-technology-ecosystem integration. ROPME (2013), in its latest State of the Marine Environment Report, concluded that governance and management of the ecosystem “is fragmented at both the Regional and the National levels” (p. 28) and that “there is a dire need [italics added] for closer cooperation among the ROPME Member States sharing the Sea Area” (p. 28). It has contended that “the environment is not compartmentalized and nor should environmental policies be” (ROPME, 2013, p. 27) and considered cooperation between and among regions as “vital for sustainable management of the RSA [ROPME Sea Area] ecosystem” (ROPME, 2013, p. 26). And it has recommended, “The countries of the Region, therefore, are to adapt a long-term integrated strategic planning approach [italics added] and a Road Map for the sustainable development of RSA, to achieve a healthier environment for a superior quality of life for all the people” (ROPME, 2013, p. 29). It is noteworthy that expanding roles and responsibilities of the existing ROPME based on the explained needs should not be toward the creation of bureaucracy. Our purpose is to expand the scope of ROPME’s roles and responsibilities to oversee needed research and the coordination of research in supporting the implementation of what we recommended for initiating the process of people-technology-ecosystem integration. There should be a tight integration between desalination and nuclear power industries within and between countries of the Gulf. More comprehensive data on the desalination, nuclear, offshore energy production, and fishing activities in each country are needed, as well as the environmental regulations governing each activity, so that models can be developed to understand the current and future impact that these entities as a whole have on the Gulf under normal and catastrophic scenarios. The proposed related methodologies by Sanders and Webber (2012) and King, Stillwell, Twomey, and Webber (2013) can be utilized in this context.



Figure 8. Locations of major seawater desalination and nuclear power plants in the Persian Gulf. Adapted from Summary of the State of the Marine Environment Report (p. 6), by Regional Organization for the Protection of the Marine Environment, 2013, retrieved from http://www.ropme.org/Uploads/SOMER/ SOMER-2013SummaryWeb.pdf. Copyright 2013 by ROPME. Adapted with permission.

Concluding Remarks

The Gulf states should be concerned with the vulnerability of their whole ecosystem to a manmade or natural disaster in light of the large number and proximity of desalination plants and nuclear power stations (not to mention oil and gas operations and maritime shipping) as presented in Figure 8. These states should recognize the fact and devise an agreement that there is an urgent need to balance their domestic sovereignty with regional responsibility and to enshrine it in a regional all-inclusive center for cooperation on safety, security, and sustainability of energy, water, and food resources in an already stretched and fragile ecosystem of the Gulf. Science and engineering, as an ultimate human intellectual endeavor, according to Ms. Lorna Casselton (2009), Foreign Secretary of the Royal Society of the United Kingdom, has always been “rising above political and diplomatic affairs.” In addition to safety and sustainability, one important by-product and unintended (positive) consequence of the proposed

people-technology-ecosystem integration, engineering diplomacy, and confidence-building effort could be better relations among the Gulf countries (Meshkati, 2012). Without recognizing the impact of the growing number of complex, large-scale technological systems; the interdependencies of water, energy, and food in the ecosystem of the Gulf; the interactions of regional actors’ cognizant entities and the need for interoperability of various subsystems with each other, in both routine and nonroutine situations; and their integration into a cohesive and all-encompassing system, sustainability will be only a short-lived dream, and prosperity will be a disappearing mirage for millions of people in the Gulf. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS We would like to acknowledge discussions with many University of Southern California students, faculty, and distinguished international experts whose inputs contributed to the formation of concepts that are synthesized in this article, chiefly Professors Sami


People-Technology-Ecosystem Integration F. Masri, Kelly T. Sanders, and Dr. Hans Blix, former Director General of the IAEA (1981–1997). We would also like to express our gratitude to Dr. Ali Abdulla, Administrative Officer of ROPME and Ms. Anneli Bodin, Communication Section, MSB/Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency for helping us with copyright permissions. This work, however, should not necessarily be construed as their representative position(s).

Key Points •• Human factors and safety culture play major roles in complex, large-scale technological systems accidents. •• Water and energy sources are highly interdependent, and their safety and sustainability are intertwined, as demonstrated in the Persian Gulf. •• In order to avoid a “tyranny of small decisions,” an integrated system-oriented approach to take into account the interoperability of water and energy sources is vital. •• An integrated, four-layer framework for the analysis of interactions and the design of interoperability among actors whose actions affect safety and sustainability of a living environment is proposed.

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Najmedin Meshkati is a professor of civil/environmental engineering, industrial and systems engineering, and international relations at the University of Southern California. He was a Jefferson Science Fellow and a senior science and engineering advisor in the Office of Science and Technology Adviser to the Secretary of State, U.S. State Department, Washington, D.C. (2009–2010). He has been selected by


People-Technology-Ecosystem Integration the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, National Academy of Engineering, and National Research Council for his interdisciplinary expertise concerning human factors and safety culture to serve as a member and technical advisor on two national panels in the United States investigating two major recent accidents: The BP Deepwater Horizon (2010– 2011) and the Fukushima nuclear plant (2012–2014). He is also a Fellow and the recipient of HFES’s Arnold M. Small President’s Distinguished Service Award in 2015. Maryam Tabibzadeh is an assistant professor in the Department of Manufacturing Systems Engineering and Management, California State University, Northridge. She received her PhD in industrial and systems engineering from the University of Southern California. Her research has been focused on risk analysis in complex safety-critical and technologyintensive industries. In her PhD dissertation, she concentrated on risk analysis of human and organizational factors, along with technical elements, in offshore drilling safety with an emphasis on negative pressure test. She has presented and published papers in the area of risk assessment and safety management in different conferences and scientific journals. Ali Farshid holds a MSc degree in civil engineering from the University of Southern California (USC). His research interest focuses on environmental sustainability through water–energy nexus management. In the past 3 years, he has been researching the safety and sustainability of large-scale civil and

57 industrial infrastructure at USC under supervision of Professor Meshkati. Before joining USC, he was working at an Iranian consultancy firm at which he was responsible for the analysis of economic and environmental impact, and future resilience of seawater desalination plants located on Iranian islands in the Persian Gulf. Mansour Rahimi is a professor in the Epstein Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, University of Southern California (USC). He received his PhD in industrial and systems engineering with specialization in human factors engineering from Virginia Tech. His research interest is in the junction of human factors and industrial ecology, with applications in transportation, construction, alternative energy systems, and eco-industrial development. He has contributed to the design of a new master’s degree in green technologies at USC and teaches a course titled Industrial Ecology: Technology–Environment Interaction. Ghena Alhanaee is a PhD student in the Sonny Astani Civil Engineering Department at the University of Southern California. Her research interests are focused in structural engineering. She received her MSc in energy resources engineering from Stanford University in 2014 and her BSc in mechanical engineering from the Petroleum Institute in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, in 2011.

Date received: November 11, 2015 Date accepted: November 19, 2015


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