OUTLOOK OBESITY
SOCIETY AT LARGE
The increasing prevalence of obesity is a worldwide phenomenon, affecting peoples from diverse cultural and economic backgrounds. By Tony Scully.
GLOBAL SPREAD
United States One in three adults are obese.
Obesity is a major risk factor for type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease and hypertension and has become one of the leading threats to public health worldwide1.
Western Europe 35% of all adults are insufficiently active.
Bangladesh The lowest rate of obesity in the world at fewer than 1% of adults.
Prevalence of adult obesity 2008 (%) >30 20–29 10–19 30 bmi worldwide in 2008 (ref.2).
Middle East Change in diets to more sugar, oils and animal products see obesity rates soar.
147M In 1980.
OFF THE SCALE
Age standardized prevalence (%)
The prevalence of obesity has almost doubled from 6.4% in 1980 to 12.0% in 2008. Half of this rise occurred between 2000 to 2008 (ref.2).
35
How to read this chart
30
Male (blue) Female (red)
36.7%
25
20
0.7%
1980 2008
15
10
5
0
AsiaPacific World
Asia, East Asia, Central
Asia, Southeast Asia, South
Caribbean
Australasia
Europe, Eastern
Europe, Central
Latin America, Andean
Europe, Western
Latin America, Southern
Latin America, Central
North Africa/ Middle East
Latin America, Tropical
S 5 0 | NAT U R E | VO L 5 0 8 | 1 7 A P R I L 2 0 1 4
© 2014 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved
Oceania
North America
Africa, Central
Africa, East
Africa, West
Africa, Southern
OBESITY OUTLOOK
BIGGER BUDGETS
RISE OF THE CALORIES
Increasing urbanization can negatively affect diets. People tend to eat more energy-dense foods containing more fat and sugar while reducing their intake of complex carbohydrates and dietary fibre3.
Since the 1960s, the availability of calories per person has risen steadily across all economic zones4.
3%
5%
In low- and lower-middle income countries, obesity among women was approximately double that among men.
Low-income countries
5%
8%
Food consumption (kcal per person per day)
Only 7% of adults in lower-middleincome countries are obese, this jumps to 24% in upper-middleincome countries.
29%
Upper-middle income countries
21%
Many more women than men are obese, with the exception of high-income countries where levels are similar.
21%
Upper-income countries
Nearly three million deaths each year are obesity related.
4,000
Lower-middle income countries
21%
3,500
3,000
2,500
By the late 1990s, people have access to 450 more kcal worldwide on average than in 1960. This figure increases to over 600 kcal in developing countries.
2,000
1,500 1965
1975
1985
IN MORTAL DANGER
1
Deaths attributable to obesity (%)
2
2015
White women Black women White men Black men
2030
1905 1915 1925 1935
3
Deaths attributable to obesity at age 76 are 3% greater in the 1925 cohort than those born 20 years earlier.
20
1995
1 2 3 4
Health surveys in the United States between 1986 and 2006 of people born in a particular year, or ‘birth cohort’, reveal the risk of obesity-related mortality for four major demographic groups. The data shows that risk of death increases as a person ages from 60 years and will likely increase as younger cohorts with earlier onset age5.
25
2.8M
World Developing countries Industrialized countries Transition countries
4 Compared to the other demographics, black men had the lowest rate of obesity-related mortality.
Deaths attributable to obesity at age 76 are 6% greater in the 1925 cohort than those born 20 years earlier, double the increase seen in white women.
15 Almost one quarter of deaths among black women in their eighties is attributable to obesity.
10
5
0 Age (years)
60
65
70
75
80
85
60
65
70
75
80
85
60
65
70
75
80
85
60
65
70
75
80
85
References: 1. The WHO Global InfoBase.; 2. Stevens, G. A. et al. Population Health Metrics 10, 22 (2012).; 3. WHO Global Health Observatory.; 4. World agriculture: towards 2015/2030 (Summary report. Rome, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, 2002).; 5. Masters, R. K. et al. American Journal of Public Health 103, 1895–1901 (2013).
1 7 A P R I L 2 0 1 4 | VO L 5 0 8 | NAT U R E | S 5 1
© 2014 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved
SOCIETY AT LARGE
The increasing prevalence of obesity is a worldwide phenomenon, affecting peoples from diverse cultural and economic backgrounds. By Tony Scully.
GLOBAL SPREAD
United States One in three adults are obese.
Obesity is a major risk factor for type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease and hypertension and has become one of the leading threats to public health worldwide1.
Western Europe 35% of all adults are insufficiently active.
Bangladesh The lowest rate of obesity in the world at fewer than 1% of adults.
Prevalence of adult obesity 2008 (%) >30 20–29 10–19 30 bmi worldwide in 2008 (ref.2).
Middle East Change in diets to more sugar, oils and animal products see obesity rates soar.
147M In 1980.
OFF THE SCALE
Age standardized prevalence (%)
The prevalence of obesity has almost doubled from 6.4% in 1980 to 12.0% in 2008. Half of this rise occurred between 2000 to 2008 (ref.2).
35
How to read this chart
30
Male (blue) Female (red)
36.7%
25
20
0.7%
1980 2008
15
10
5
0
AsiaPacific World
Asia, East Asia, Central
Asia, Southeast Asia, South
Caribbean
Australasia
Europe, Eastern
Europe, Central
Latin America, Andean
Europe, Western
Latin America, Southern
Latin America, Central
North Africa/ Middle East
Latin America, Tropical
S 5 0 | NAT U R E | VO L 5 0 8 | 1 7 A P R I L 2 0 1 4
© 2014 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved
Oceania
North America
Africa, Central
Africa, East
Africa, West
Africa, Southern
OBESITY OUTLOOK
BIGGER BUDGETS
RISE OF THE CALORIES
Increasing urbanization can negatively affect diets. People tend to eat more energy-dense foods containing more fat and sugar while reducing their intake of complex carbohydrates and dietary fibre3.
Since the 1960s, the availability of calories per person has risen steadily across all economic zones4.
3%
5%
In low- and lower-middle income countries, obesity among women was approximately double that among men.
Low-income countries
5%
8%
Food consumption (kcal per person per day)
Only 7% of adults in lower-middleincome countries are obese, this jumps to 24% in upper-middleincome countries.
29%
Upper-middle income countries
21%
Many more women than men are obese, with the exception of high-income countries where levels are similar.
21%
Upper-income countries
Nearly three million deaths each year are obesity related.
4,000
Lower-middle income countries
21%
3,500
3,000
2,500
By the late 1990s, people have access to 450 more kcal worldwide on average than in 1960. This figure increases to over 600 kcal in developing countries.
2,000
1,500 1965
1975
1985
IN MORTAL DANGER
1
Deaths attributable to obesity (%)
2
2015
White women Black women White men Black men
2030
1905 1915 1925 1935
3
Deaths attributable to obesity at age 76 are 3% greater in the 1925 cohort than those born 20 years earlier.
20
1995
1 2 3 4
Health surveys in the United States between 1986 and 2006 of people born in a particular year, or ‘birth cohort’, reveal the risk of obesity-related mortality for four major demographic groups. The data shows that risk of death increases as a person ages from 60 years and will likely increase as younger cohorts with earlier onset age5.
25
2.8M
World Developing countries Industrialized countries Transition countries
4 Compared to the other demographics, black men had the lowest rate of obesity-related mortality.
Deaths attributable to obesity at age 76 are 6% greater in the 1925 cohort than those born 20 years earlier, double the increase seen in white women.
15 Almost one quarter of deaths among black women in their eighties is attributable to obesity.
10
5
0 Age (years)
60
65
70
75
80
85
60
65
70
75
80
85
60
65
70
75
80
85
60
65
70
75
80
85
References: 1. The WHO Global InfoBase.; 2. Stevens, G. A. et al. Population Health Metrics 10, 22 (2012).; 3. WHO Global Health Observatory.; 4. World agriculture: towards 2015/2030 (Summary report. Rome, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, 2002).; 5. Masters, R. K. et al. American Journal of Public Health 103, 1895–1901 (2013).
1 7 A P R I L 2 0 1 4 | VO L 5 0 8 | NAT U R E | S 5 1
© 2014 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved
