522169 research-article2014

PUS0010.1177/0963662514522169Public Understanding of ScienceShein et al.

P  U  S

Article

Relationship between scientific knowledge and fortune-telling

Public Understanding of Science 1­–17 © The Author(s) 2014 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav DOI: 10.1177/0963662514522169 pus.sagepub.com

Paichi Pat Shein, Yuh-Yuh Li and Tai-Chu Huang National Sun Yat-sen University, Taiwan

Abstract This study takes on a relational and situated perspective to understand the relationship between scientific knowledge and fortune-telling. Measures included socio-demographic characteristics, knowledge of scientific facts and methods, and fortune-telling beliefs and practices. A sample of 1863 adults was drawn from a population of Taiwanese citizens using the method of probability proportional to size. The findings showed that knowledge of scientific methods was negatively associated with fortune-telling beliefs. However, knowledge of scientific facts was, by and large, positively associated with engagement in fortune-telling practices, a phenomenon known as cognitive polyphasia. This study does not imply that science communication or education have no effect on promoting scientific knowledge; rather, it hopes to encourage researchers and practitioners to use a culturally sensitive lens to rethink the role of science in society and its relationship with other forms of knowledge and belief.

Keywords public understanding of science, representations of science, science and popular culture, scientific literacy, social representations

1. Introduction People are faced with needs, issues, and challenges on a daily basis. To address and overcome them, people draw on what they know and sometimes seek the advice of others who know more. Needless to say, knowledge plays a vital role in a person’s daily function of life, guiding one’s decisions and practices. Because knowledge is a socially-constructed entity, it is important to situate “knowledge in context” (Jovchelovitch, 2007) as some knowledge may work for one circumstance, but not the other. For example, fishermen may study the engineering and technology of ships to decide upon their purchase, but may rely on fortune-telling methods or religious rituals to determine a sailing time that promises safe and prosperous prospects. Moreover, some knowledge systems may complement each other, and some may be contradictory. Continuing with the previous example, fishermen may obtain advice from a weather forecast or meteorology to proceed with Corresponding author: Tai-Chu Huang, National Sun Yat-sen University, 70 Lienhai Road, Kaohsiung, 804, Taiwan. Email: [email protected]

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their fishing activities, but the outcome of the divination method performed in a traditional ritual may advise otherwise. Knowledge that has not been scientifically proven or has been claimed as unscientific, parascientific or pseudoscientific has been relegated as a lesser kind of knowledge that needs to be questioned or even dismissed. Measures, such as formal education, have been taken to eradicate ideas and methods related to this kind of knowledge. This paper addresses the issue of diversity in the dismantling of the socially-constructed demarcation of rational from irrational knowledge, or more specifically for this paper, science from “pseudoscience” (Bauer and Durant, 1997), to begin to see the reality that different forms of knowledge exist in an individual and are used to fulfill different needs, overcome different obstacles, and achieve different goals, which is a perspective called cognitive polyphasia (Jovchelovitch, 2007, 2008). In this paper, the word “knowledge” is used to describe what people know about science, or the social representations of science, in the modern world today. The word “belief” is used to describe what people know about fortune-telling, a kind of representation that is transmitted through cultural practices (Jovchelovitch, 2007: 107). Fortune-telling, although identified by many as “pseudoscientific,” has been practiced by people in Taiwan for decades, even by those who are educated (Chiu, 2006) and young (Tsai et al., 2011). Thus, rather than viewing “pseudoscience” in opposition to science (Chin, 2007; Lilienfeld et al., 2001), this paper aims to understand the relationship between these traditional beliefs and practices of fortune-telling and scientific knowledge. It is this relational and situated perspective of knowledge that allows for a sensible and productive dialogue among scientists, science communicators, and lay people. Hence, one overarching question guides this study: How does scientific knowledge relate to fortune-telling beliefs and practices in Taiwan? In particular, three research questions emerged: 1) How does scientific knowledge relate to fortune-telling beliefs? 2) How does scientific knowledge relate to the variety of fortunetelling practices in which people engage? 3) How does scientific knowledge relate to four major kinds of fortune-telling practices commonly found in Taiwan? Consequently, six regression models were constructed to answer these questions.

2. Scientific knowledge, fortune-telling, and their relationship Scientific knowledge Within the field of public survey research on scientific literacy or public understanding of science, the definition of scientific knowledge has two basic dimensions: facts and methods (Durant et al., 1989, 1992; Evans and Durant, 1995; Miller, 1983, 1987, 1995, 1998). First, knowledge of scientific facts is measured by a repertoire of true–false statements such as “electrons are smaller than atoms” and “antibiotics kill viruses as well as bacteria.” Similar items can be found in surveys conducted in China (CRISP, 2008), Europe (European Commission, 2001, 2005), India (NCAER, 2004; Shukla, 2005), Japan (NISTEP, 2002), South Korea (KOFAC, 2009), Malaysia (MASTIC, 2010), Russia (Gokhberg and Shuvalova, 2004), and the U.S. (National Science Board, 2002, 2006, 2008, 2010, 2012). Bauer et al. (2007) suggested that these factual knowledge items should be analyzed in combination to have significance. Second, scientific method questions are constructed to investigate the understanding of the process of scientific inquiry. In the U.S, a combination of an open-ended question and two close-ended questions was constructed for this line of investigation (Miller, 1983, 1987, 1995; National Science Board, 2002, 2006, 2008, 2010, 2012). These questions were also used in China (CRISP, 2008) and Europe (European Commission, 1992, 2001). For the open-ended question, respondents were asked whether they have a clear understanding, a general sense, or not much understanding of what it means to study something scientifically. Those who responded that they had a clear understanding or a general sense of it were then asked

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to describe their understanding in their own words. One close-ended question was developed after a common response from the open-ended question that a scientific study involved “an experiment” (Miller and Pifer, 1995). Another close-ended question assessed respondents’ understanding of probability.

Fortune-telling Fortune-telling is prevalent in modern Taiwanese society with its roots tracing back to the ancient Chinese reign of the Tang and Song dynasties over a thousand years ago. It plays a vital role in traditional folk activities. Its foundations draw from knowledge systems of ancient astronomy, calendar calculation, geology, traditional Chinese medicine, and the notion of destiny. The long interaction between fortune-telling and Taiwanese tradition makes the two inseparable. Fortunetelling has come to shape one’s belief system at the personal level and define cultural ideology at the societal level. Within the past 25 years in Taiwan, the media has been rapidly popularized with increased numbers of television channels and loosened control of broadcast content. Content related to fortunetelling can be found in various forms of mass communication such as books, newspapers, radio, and television. Mass media as a major catalyst in the propagation of “pseudoscientific” beliefs (Lilienfeld et al., 2001; Losh, 2011; Preece and Baxter, 2000; Sparks and Miller, 2001; Tsai et al., 2011) facilitated the popularization of fortune-telling beliefs and practices. With the blooming of the internet in the mid-1990s, fortune-telling became even more pervasive through the use of webbased tools, such as Google (Baram-Tsabari and Segev, 2011). A part of the Taiwan Social Change Survey, a nation-wide longitudinal survey conducted every five years since 1985, has investigated the beliefs and practices of fortune-telling. The data showed a fairly consistent pattern of about a third of the people having sought fortune-telling services for the past 27 years of survey research (Chiu, 2006; Fu and Tu, 2010), and about a third of the people believing that fortune-telling is accurate or predictive of the future (Chang, 2000). In analyzing the data from 1985 to 1995, Chiu (2006) found that education increased the likelihood of the use of fortune-telling services and suggested that “the kind of rationality cultivated by modern education, which generally tended to counter [fortune-telling], might fall short in countering deep, profound methods of fortune-telling.” Fortune-telling beliefs and practices have an ancient origin and are deeply engrained in Taiwanese people’s consciousness and daily operation of life, so much that people with more education are not able to forgo these ancient ideas and are instead appealing more to them because more education tends to open more social opportunities and thus a higher degree of uncertainty (Chiu, 2006; Giddens, 1991). Chiu (1993) has explained that a strong tendency to find fortune-telling appealing is connected to a sense of uncertainty. When people are situated in more uncertain conditions, they are more likely to practice fortune-telling because traditional rituals of religion or superstition seem to ease insecurities or apprehension caused by the uncertain future (Emmons and Paloutzian, 2003; Gorsuch, 1988). In a study on online fortune-telling behavior in Taiwan, Kuo (2005) found that the two major topics discussed in fortune-telling were relationships and careers, with some gender differences. Males were more concerned about careers and females more concerned about relationships. To study the relationship between scientific knowledge and fortune-telling, it is important to consider possible socio-demographic variables that may confound the relationship. To decide what socio-demographic variables to control in the models so that such a relationship can be accurately depicted, various studies that were conducted in relation to “pseudoscience” in general and fortunetelling in particular were referenced. The following socio-demographic variables were included in the modeling for this study: age (Allum and Stoneman, 2012; Chiu, 2006; Lindeman and Aarnio,

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2006; Tsai et al., 2011), gender (Allum and Stoneman, 2012; Chiu, 2006; Johnson and Pigliucci, 2004; Lindeman and Aarnio, 2006; Preece and Baxter, 2000; Shermer, 2002; Tsai et al., 2011), education (Afonso and Gilbert, 2010; Allum and Stoneman, 2012; Allum et al., 2008; Chiu, 2006; Goode, 2002; Losh and Nzekwe, 2011; Miller, 2004; Sparks and Miller, 2001; Walker et al., 2002), religion (Allum and Stoneman, 2012), proximity to city (Allum and Stoneman, 2012), socio-economic status (Allum and Stoneman, 2012; Chiu, 2006; Kuo, 2005), and marital status (Kuo, 2005). Fortune-telling includes a myriad of theories and methods. This paper focuses on four main categories of fortune-telling. The “fate” practice includes four pillars of destiny and Chinese astrology, zi-wei-dou-shu, which uses one’s birthday to predict one’s fortune. The “expression” practice uses physical features such as face, palms, and bone structure, composition of Chinese characters and Chinese names, and Feng Shui to determine personality, character, and destiny. The “western” practice constitutes fortune-telling ideas or methods that have their origin in western society, such as astrology and tarot cards. The “divination” practice encompasses all kinds of rituals that involve reading signs or omens through various media.

Relationship between science knowledge and fortune-telling Science has been claimed as the foundation of social development, whereas some forms of traditional knowledge have been viewed as unscientific and at times obstacles to social development (Agrawal, 1995). This dichotomous view gives rise to a hierarchical arrangement of scientific knowledge as a more refined, advanced, and realistic form of knowledge. Such a paradigm places tensions between traditional and scientific knowledge, positions them as oppositional and promotes the singular existence of one or the other, which is in most cases scientific knowledge. Thus, many research studies that study traditional knowledge take on this hierarchical framework, naming it “pseudoscience” and positioning science as a reducing or eliminating agent of it. Some empirical studies have shown that when students are given more science education, their pseudoscientific knowledge decreases (Martin, 1994; Martin-Hansen, 2008; McLean and Miller, 2010). A recent study by Turgut (2011) found that an intervention in a teacher education course that was based on the demarcation of science from pseudoscience, particularly in the case of astrology, was effective in promoting the understanding of the nature of science. However, about three decades ago, a theory proposed by Michael Polanyi (1983) was used to challenge the oppositional positioning of science knowledge and traditional belief. Polanyi regarded traditional belief as a form of “tacit knowledge” that is a part of people’s consciousness but does not emerge on to the surface owing to the public climate of the dominant ideology (Freire, 1970). In simpler words, we know more than we can show or want to show (Polanyi, 1983: 4). Polanyi further argued that tacit knowledge is important because it constructs individuals’ comprehensive identities and their understanding of the world. Although not explicitly perceived, fortunetelling as a form of tacit knowledge may have important functions in terms of guiding Taiwanese people in their everyday practices. Furthermore, tacit knowledge could potentially lead to major breakthroughs (Wellman, 2009), such as scientific discoveries and technological inventions. Moreover, Giddens (1991) argued that the increase in knowledge in modern society increases the difficulty of self-identity or decision-making, which could explain why younger (Tsai et al., 2011) and higher educated (Chiu, 2006) people also practice fortune-telling. Giddens (1991) explained that in a traditional society, with settled social roles and established decision-making patterns, there is little room for change and thus less risk involved in living. However, in a modern society, with a more complex and diverse social world, chances and risks are consequently higher, which gives rise to people’s desire to intervene and control their

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life, especially at the juncture of “fateful moments,” times “when individuals are called on to take decisions that are particularly consequential for their […] future lives” (Giddens, 1991: 112). Subsequently, the methods of assessment and intervention people use to shape their identity, fortune, or life may be drawn from multiple knowledge systems, and vary from culture to culture. The present study attempts to take on a relational and situated perspective, without any preconceived positionality of different forms of knowledge, in order to understand the relationship between scientific knowledge and traditional knowledge, in the specific case of fortune-telling. In this line of inquiry, the U.S. Science and Engineering Indicators has found that people with higher education or more factual knowledge in science were less likely to perceive astrology to be scientific (National Science Board, 2012). Allum and Stoneman (2012) also found that the more scientifically knowledgeable people are, the less they believe that astrology is scientific. On the other hand, Johnson and Pigliucci (2004) found negative but weak correlations between pseudoscientific beliefs and knowledge of scientific facts and concepts. However, more studies in other cultural contexts are required to gain an in-depth and comprehensive picture. The present study used items that were relevant to the local context of Taiwan. Fortune-telling was selected because it has a long-standing tradition in the culture of Taiwan. Furthermore, our study has constructed measures that are different from and new to the public survey research on scientific literacy. Rather than asking the citizens whether they perceive “fortune-telling as scientific,” which already assumes a dichotomous view, we used a more open question that asked whether they believe the predicative nature of fortune-telling, as unbiased and empirical evidence of their fortune-telling beliefs. To probe further, we asked about their actual engagement in fortune-telling practices to paint a more comprehensive picture of their fortune-telling beliefs.

3. Measures The measures used for this study stemmed from a larger survey that investigated Taiwan’s civic scientific literacy in 2012. Three types of measures were used: 1) socio-demographic characteristics, 2) scientific knowledge, and 3) fortune-telling beliefs and practices. The first two were the independent variables, and the last was the dependent variable. The descriptive statistics of the variables used in this study are summarized in Appendix 1 (Appendices can be found online at pus. sagepub.com). The correlations between the scientific knowledge variables and the fortune-telling variables are provided in Table 1. Table 1.  Correlations for variables related to scientific knowledge and fortune-telling (FT). Scientific Scientific FT beliefs Variety of FT Fate practice Expression Western facts methods practices practice practice Scientific methods .446** FT beliefs –.017 Variety of FT practices .182** Fate practice .129** Expression practice .136** Western practice .174** Divination practice .021 **p < .01.

–.032 .148** .096** .114** .101** .040

.279** .168** .217** .234** .084**

.579** .709** .500** .412**

.331** .104** .129**

.247** .165**

            .125**

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Socio-demographic characteristics The socio-demographic characteristics included age, gender, educational level, religion, proximity to city, income, marital status, and interaction between marital status and gender. Four age groups were defined as 18–29, 30–39, 40–49, and 50–65 years old. Male was defined as 0 and female was defined as 1. Three education levels were defined as primary, secondary and tertiary. “Primary” included illiterate, home-schooled, self-learned, and elementary school. “Secondary” included junior high school, high school, and vocational school. “Tertiary” included junior college, university, Master’s, and doctorate levels. Two types of religion were determined based on respondents’ responses to the seven choices of religious beliefs. “Old” religion included Buddhism, Taoism, folk beliefs,1 and I-Kuan Tao which have a longer history in Taiwan compared to the next category of “new” religion which included Islam, Catholicism, and Christianity. Those who responded that they had no religious beliefs were categorized as “no religion.” Proximity to city was measured based on the respondents’ self-reported area of residence, from farm, rural, township, suburban, to urban areas, in an order of increasing proximity to the city. Income was divided into “low,” “middle,” and “high,” which constituted about 0–20%, 20–80%, and 80–100%, respectively, of the income distribution garnered from the responses. Marital status included “single” and “married.” “Single” includes not married, divorced, widowed, and married but separated.

Scientific knowledge Scientific knowledge is measured with two variables: facts and methods. Knowledge of scientific facts was measured by 15 true–false statements (Appendix 3, Question 1). Similar items could be found in surveys conducted in China (CRISP, 2008), Europe (European Commission, 2001, 2005), India (NCAER, 2004; Shukla, 2005), Japan (NISTEP, 2002), South Korea (KOFAC, 2009), Malaysia (MASTIC, 2010), Russia (Gokhberg and Shuvalova, 2004), and the U.S. (National Science Board, 2002, 2006, 2008, 2010, 2012). Related methodological and conceptual issues have been discussed by various researchers (Allum et al., 2008; Durant et al., 1989; Miller, 1983, 1998; Pardo and Calvo, 2004). To detect the quality of the questionnaire, Cronbach’s alpha and factor analysis were performed to test reliability and validity. After the deletion of the items with factor loadings that are below .45, ten items were used to measure knowledge of scientific facts. These factual knowledge items were analyzed in combination with an outcome of an acceptable Cronbach’s alpha coefficient of 0.71. A score of 1 was given when each statement was defined correctly, thus, respondents could receive a score of 0 to 10. Knowledge of scientific methods was measured by one close-ended question that had four items in total. Similar items can be found in surveys conducted in China (CRISP, 2008), Europe (European Commission, 1992, 2001), and the U.S. (National Science Board, 2002, 2006, 2008, 2010, 2012). Methodological and conceptual issues have also been raised in research (Durant et al., 1989; Miller, 1983, 1998). Here the question was related to the probability of inherited disease (Appendix 3, Question 2). Respondents were asked to rate the correctness of the four given statements on a fourpoint Likert scale of “correct,” “incorrect,” “not sure,” to “I don’t know.” A score of 1 was given when each statement was defined correctly, thus, respondents could receive a score of 0 to 4. The four items included in the construct of scientific methods demonstrated (the factor loadings were from .50 to .86) an acceptable Cronbach’s alpha coefficient of 0.76.

Fortune-telling beliefs The variable of “fortune-telling beliefs” is a construct measured by three items with some modifications from the 2001 U.S. Survey of Public Attitudes Toward and Understanding of Science and

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Technology (National Science Board, 2002) with additional items on fortune-telling and divination related to the Taiwanese context. The respondents were asked how much they believe in these three statements: “horoscope analyses can predict the future,” “divination and fortune-telling can predict the future,” and “some numbers are especially lucky for some people,” measured on a four-point Likert scale of “don’t believe it at all,” “don’t believe it,” “believe it,” and “believe it very much,” coded 0, 1, 2, and 3, respectively (Appendix 3, Question 3). Therefore, scores on the measure could range from 0 to 9. The Cronbach’s alpha coefficient for this construct was 0.76, demonstrating acceptable item reliability. Note that the phrasing of the first item was different than that found in the U.S. survey. Instead of using a dichotomous framework to ask if horoscope analyses were scientific, the present survey asked respondents if they believe horoscope analyses can predict the future, without any preconceived positioning. Such phrasing is adopted from the Taiwan Social Change Survey, a nation-wide longitudinal survey that has some items dedicated to fortune-telling (Chiu, 2006).

Fortune-telling practices A follow-up question was designed to get at the behavioral manifestation of people’s “tacit knowledge” (Polanyi, 1983), to be analyzed in juxtaposition with what people say about the fortunetelling beliefs as stated in the previous paragraph. The question asked, “Which of the following fortune-telling methods have you used?” and provided 13 fortune-telling practices2 of which the respondent could select as many as applicable (Appendix 3, Question 4). The different practices were adopted from the Taiwan Social Change Survey (Chiu, 2006). This question was analyzed in two ways. First, it was used to determine the variety of fortune-telling practices in which an individual engaged. One could engage in 0 to 13 methods of fortune-telling. Second, the question was used to formulate four categories of fortune-telling. The fortune-telling methods were classified into four categories and variables of “fate,” “expression,” “western,” and “divination.” “Fate” included two methods: four pillars of destiny3 and Chinese astrology.4 “Expression” included five methods: palm reading, face reading, glyphomancy,5 Feng Shui,6 and anthroponymy.7 “Western” included two methods of western origins, western astrology and tarot cards. “Divination” included one general method of divination. If respondents checked at least one method in each category, a score of 1 was given.

4. Methods Sample The sample of data draws from a population of Taiwanese citizens aged between 18 and 65 years based on the 2012 household registration data. The sampling method of probability proportional to size (PPS) was used, which constitutes the methods of stratified sampling and systematic sampling, to ensure that the sampled data are proportional to the size of the general population. The sampling process underwent three stages, as seen in Appendix 2. In Phase 1, Taiwan’s 358 towns were clustered into six subpopulations based on six demographic indices: 1) population density, 2) commercial employment, 3) industrial employment, 4) age of 15–64, 5) age of 65 and over, and 6) education of college and higher (Hung, 1992). Consequently, these six subpopulations represent different areas of residence: 1) metropolitan area, 2) industrial/commercial urban area, 3) newly developed area, 4) traditional industrial area, 5) under-developed area, and 6) remote and rural area. Within each subpopulation, equidistance sampling was used to systematically select a certain number of towns according to the size of the population. In Phase 2, two villages were selected in each town. In Phase 3, a certain number of citizens in each village were then further selected. To ensure that

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these numbers of samples were collected, the sample sizes were expanded to account for any invalid data, such as the subject’s refusal to complete the interview, the interviewer’s asking the wrong person, the interview having been conducted via telephone, and fabrication of the data. A total of 5326 questionnaires were administered with 1863 valid questionnaires returned.

Data collection The instrument was administered in the format of an in-person interview by trained interviewers. The data were collected through the following three stages: 1) a pilot test of 388 subjects was conducted using the same sampling method as described above to identify and resolve any potential problems before implementation of the questionnaire, 2) the questionnaire was administered throughout Taiwan, and 3) the collected data were reviewed by the SPSS syntax to examine the consistency across each subject’s responses.

Data analysis Six models were created to analyze the 1863 collected questionnaires. The models used the same independent variables but different dependent variables. Two analytical methods were used. First, for the first two models, multiple regression analysis was used in the analysis of fortune-telling beliefs and variety of fortune-telling practices. Second, for the next four models on the four kinds of fortune-telling practices defined previously, logistic regression analysis (LRA) was used for the analysis and prediction of a dichotomous outcome (Peng et al., 2002). SPSS 17.0 is employed as the statistical analysis software.

5. Results How does scientific knowledge relate to fortune-telling beliefs? In Table 2, the results from the multiple regression model show that adults aged 18–29 years (.139, p < .001) and 30–39 years (.065, p < .05) had more fortune-telling beliefs than those aged 50–65 years. Old religion beliefs (.120, p < .001) showed a positive association with fortune-telling beliefs. The married (-.076, p < .05) were less likely to hold fortune-telling beliefs than the single. Knowledge of scientific facts was negatively associated with fortune-telling beliefs, however, not statistically significant. Knowledge of scientific methods (-.059, p < .05) was negatively associated with fortune-telling beliefs with slight statistical significance.

How does scientific knowledge relate to the variety of fortune-telling practices in which people engaged? Variety of fortune-telling practices refers to the number of different fortune-telling practices that respondents used, ranging from 0 to 11. The descriptive analysis showed that the variety of fortunetelling practices has an average of 1.71 and a standard deviation of 1.91 (Appendix 1), meaning that the respondents used between 1 and 2 different fortune-telling practices. In Table 2, the results from the multiple regression model showed that adults aged 30–39 years (.065, p < .01) used more variety of fortune-telling practices than those aged 50–65 years. Females (.377, p < .001) also used more variety of fortune-telling practices than males. Those with beliefs in old religion (.150, p < .001) used more variety of fortune-telling practices. Those with tertiary education (.181, p < .001) used more variety of fortune-telling practices than those with lower educational levels. Living in

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Table 2.  Two multiple regression models of fortune-telling beliefs and variety of fortune-telling practices.

  (constant) Age (50–65 years old = 0)  18–29  30–39  40–49 Female Education level (Primary = 0)  Secondary  Tertiary Religion (No religion = 0)  Old  New Proximity to city Income (Low = 0)  Middle  High Married Married * female Scientific facts Scientific methods

Fortune-telling beliefs

Variety of fortune-telling practices

Beta

Beta

p .324

p .043

.139*** .065* .025 .094

.000 .012 .343 .242

.039 .065** .038 .377***

.200 .009 .138 .000

.061 .054

.181 .313

.072 .181***

.104 .000

.120*** –.036 .041

.000 .161 .095

.150*** .028 .098***

.000 .250 .000

–.008 .004 –.076* .053 –.023 –.059*

.801 .913 .033 .533 .439 .024

.006 –.015 –.029 –.280** .072* .037

.849 .641 .411 .001 .013 .148

*p < .05; **p < .01; ***p ≤ .001.

closer proximity to a city (.098, p < .001) predicted more engagement with a variety of fortunetelling practices. There is an interaction between marital status and gender; married females (-.280, p < .001) used less variety of fortune-telling practices than single females. There was, however, no difference between single and married males. Knowledge of scientific facts (.072, p < .05) was positively associated with variety of fortune-telling practices. Knowledge of scientific methods was positively associated with variety of fortune-telling practices, however, with no statistical significance.

How does scientific knowledge relate to four major kinds of fortune-telling practices commonly found in Taiwan? The descriptive analysis showed that fortune-telling practices are popular in Taiwan (Appendix 1). Among the four types of fortune-telling practices, fate was the most popular type of fortune-telling practice, followed by expression, divination, and western (52%, 39%, 20%, and 15%, respectively). In Table 3, four logistic regression models were constructed to test the research hypothesis regarding the relationship between scientific knowledge and the likelihood of an adult engaging in the pre-defined four different kinds of fortune-telling practices. The overall prediction for the models of fate, expression, western, and divination fortune-telling practices was 62.5%, 62.9%, 85.7%, and 92.3%, respectively.8 Fate fortune-telling was negatively related to the age of 18–29 years (-.448, p < .01) compared with the age of 50–65 years. Thus, given the same individual characteristics, adults aged 18–29

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Table 3.  Four logistic regression models of four different kinds of fortune-telling practices. Fate  

B

(constant) –3.323*** Age (50–65 years old = 0)  18–29 –.448**  30–39 .327**  40–49 .280* Female 1.188** Education level (Primary = 0)  Secondary .231  Tertiary .551* Religion (No religion = 0)  Old .839***  New .028 Proximity to city .195*** Income (Low = 0)  Middle .234  High .124 Married .372* Married * female –.505* Scientific facts .080** Scientific methods .036  Chi-square χ2 186.356***

Expression Exp(B) p

B

Western Exp(B)

p

B

Divination Exp(B)

p

.036

.000

–2.489***

.083

.000

–4.995***

.007

.639 1.387 1.324 3.280

.007 .008 .024 .001

.414* .216 .119 .803*

1.513 1.241 1.126 2.231

.011 .075 .341 .018

1.157*** .534** .176 .497

3.181 1.706 1.192 1.645

.000 .003 .412 .285

1.260 1.734

.243 .016

.308 .474

1.360 1.607

.162 .055

2.263* 2.937**

9.610 18.860

2.314 1.029 1.215

.000 .901 .000

.406** .061 .135**

1.501 1.062 1.144

.002 .796 .005

.322 .042 .144*

1.264 1.132 1.451 .604 1.083 1.037

.071 .481 .019 .014 .007 .466

.098 –.040 –.092 –.360 .059 .068 97.985***

1.103 .960 .912 .697 1.061 1.071

.455 .820 .565 .078 .051 .185

B

Exp(B)

.000 –3.819***

p

.022

.000

.170 .651** .468* .996

1.186 1.917 1.597 2.708

.564 .002 .035 .097

.028 .005

.041 .616

1.042 1.852

.923 .190

1.381 1.043 1.155

.067 .900 .045

.681** .049 .193*

1.977 1.051 1.213

.007 .918 .027

.002 1.002 –.137 .872 –1.419*** .242 .477 1.611 .126** 1.134 –.077 .926 333.438***

.990 .607 .000 .160 .011 .347

–.257 .773 .069 1.071 –.115 .891 –.394 .674 –.094 .910 .048 1.049 44.607***

.286 .823 .701 .282 .084 .627

*p < .05; **p < .01; ***p ≤ .001.

years were less likely to practice fate fortune-telling than those aged 50–65 years. However, adults aged 30–39 years (.327, p < .01) and 40–49 years (.280, p < .05) were more likely to practice fate fortune-telling than those aged 50–65 years. Females (1.188, p < .01) were more likely to practice fate fortune-telling than males. And, those with tertiary education (.551, p < .05) were more likely to practice fate fortune-telling than those with lower educational levels. Adults with beliefs in old religion (.839, p < .001) were more likely to practice fate fortune-telling than those with new or no religious beliefs. Those living closer to a city (.195, p < .001) were more likely to practice fate fortune-telling than those living farther away. Those with middle income (.234, p = .071) were more likely to practice fate fortune-telling than those with low or high income, this being close to reaching statistical significance. Married adults (.372, p < .05) were more likely to practice fate fortune-telling than singles. There was also an interaction between marital status and gender. Marital status moderated gender differences in fate fortune-telling practice. As seen in Figure 1, for the single, females predicted more use of fate fortune-telling than males; however, for the married, males predicted more use of fate fortune-telling than females. Gender differences were dramatically reversed for both groups of marital status. Additionally, the higher the knowledge of scientific facts (.080, p < .01), the more likely the adults would practice fate fortune-telling. Knowledge of scientific methods was positively associated with fate fortune-telling practice; however, there was no statistical significance. Expression fortune-telling practice was positively related to the age of 18–29 years (.414, p < .05) compared with the age of 50–65 years old. That is, the youngest group practiced more expression fortune-telling than those aged 50–65 years. Moreover, gender, educational level, religion, proximity to city, and scientific knowledge were associated with the prediction of expression fortune-telling practice. As with the pattern of fate fortune-telling, females (.803, p < .05) were more likely to practice expression fortune-telling than males. The most educated, those with tertiary

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Figure 1.  The log of the odds of an adult practicing fate fortune-telling and marital status by gender. Given age 30–39, education = tertiary, religion = old, scientific facts = 10, scientific methods = 3.

education (.474, p = .055), were more likely to practice expression fortune-telling than the less educated. Those with beliefs in old religion (.406, p < .01) were more likely to practice expression fortune-telling than those with new or no religious beliefs. Those living closer to a city (.135, p < .01) were more likely to practice expression fortune-telling than those living farther away. Knowledge of scientific facts (.059, p = .051) was positively associated with practicing expression fortune-telling. Knowledge of scientific methods was positively associated, with no statistical significance, with expression fortune-telling practice. Western fortune-telling practice was positively related to the ages of 18–29 years (1.157, p < .001) and 30–39 years (.534, p < .01) compared with the age of 50–65 years. In other words, adults aged less than 40 years old were more likely to practice western fortune-telling than those aged 50–65 years old. However, practicing western fortune-telling was not significantly related to gender. The higher the educational level, the more likely it is that an adult would practice western fortune-telling. Adults with secondary education (2.263, p < .05) and tertiary education (2.937, p < .01) were more likely to practice western fortune-telling than those with primary education. Adults living closer to a city (.144, p < .05) were more likely to practice western fortune-telling than those living farther away. Married adults (-1.419, p < .001) were less likely to practice western fortunetelling than singles. Knowledge of scientific facts (.126, p < .05) was positively associated with western fortune-telling practice. The higher the knowledge of scientific facts, the more likely the adults would practice western fortune-telling. Divination fortune-telling practice was positively related to the ages of 30–39 years (.651, p < .01) and 40–49 years (.468, p < .05) compared with the age of 50–65 years. In general, adults aged 30–49 years old were more likely to practice divination fortune-telling than the other age groups. Gender and education level did not show a significant association with divination fortune-telling. Old religion beliefs (.681, p < .01) and proximity to a city (.193, p < .05) were also positively associated with divination fortune-telling practice. Knowledge of scientific facts (-.094, p = .084) was negatively associated with divination fortune-telling practice. The higher the scientific knowledge of facts, the less likely it is that adults would practice divination fortune-telling. However, the

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knowledge of scientific methods is positively associated with divination fortune-telling practice, although with no statistical significance.

6. Discussion This study examined the relationship between scientific knowledge and fortune-telling belief and practices. Several socio-demographic characteristics in association with fortune-telling beliefs and practices were considered in the models. Our findings show that fortune-telling is related to popular traditional religious beliefs found in Taiwan, as those who hold the traditional religious beliefs are more likely to practice fate, expression and divination kinds of fortune-telling than those with new or no religious beliefs. In addition, the youngest group showed firmer beliefs in the predictive nature of fortune-telling and more engagement with expression and western fortune-telling practice. Such a phenomenon could probably be due to the influence of the media (Tsai et al., 2011) and sub-culture. It was found that the highly educated and city dwellers, in general, had a larger likelihood to believe in and practice fortune-telling. Higher educational attainment and closer proximity to cities indicate more social opportunities and a higher degree of uncertainty, which may explain a stronger predilection for fortune-telling (Chiu, 2006; Giddens, 1991). Another interesting finding was the interaction between marital status and gender. In particular, married males were more likely to practice fate fortune-telling than single males. The change in marital status could result in a redefinition of social roles and responsibilities, explaining the reason males, after marriage, would engage in more traditional fortune-telling practices than before. As people go through certain stages in life or encounter “fateful moments” (Giddens, 1991: 112), they seem to resort to fortune-telling for guidance. After controlling for these social and cultural correlates, our analysis showed that knowledge of scientific methods was negatively associated with fortune-telling beliefs. On the other hand, knowledge of scientific facts was, by and large, positively associated with actual engagement in fortune-telling practices, a cultural phenomenon known as cognitive polyphasia (Jovchelovitch, 2002) or non-overlapping magisteria (Gould, 1997). If these behaviors of fortune-telling are reflective of the “tacit knowledge” of individuals (Polanyi, 1983), as fortune-telling is often done in private with the fortune-tellers in person or online, our findings may suggest a coexistence of different knowledge systems within an individual. As Jovchelovitch (2007: 6) stated, “different forms of knowledge can live side by side, cross-fertilising and undergoing productive transformations on the basis of dialogical encounters.” Similar results have also been reported in a survey in France (Broch, 2000). As suggested by Goode (2002: 25), “the notion that paranormalism violates the laws of nature is an emic concept among scientists,” whereas “the human capacity to compartmentalize categories of thinking is sufficiently great as to permit simultaneous belief in assertions that are contradictory.” Oftentimes, science is framed as a higher form of knowledge that is held by an exclusive group people, and thus the name of science is often used to exclude, degrade, or eradicate other forms of knowledge that contradict with or are unable to be represented by science. This mindset marks and perpetuates the boundaries of inclusion and exclusion – what is and what is not scientific – which leads to theoretical and organizational divisions that prevent meaningful and productive communication and advancement. The study suggests a paradigm shift in how science is viewed as a part of a whole that exists with, depends on, communicates with other parts in order to make sense of the world. The relational and situated perspective that this study adopts is different from the conventional dichotomous and oppositional positioning of the educational–paranormal connection: that an engagement in fortune-telling practices is an indicator of a lack of scientific reasoning. Therefore, the findings of this study do not imply or indicate that science education has no effect on promoting scientific knowledge; they do encourage science education researchers and practitioners to use a

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culturally sensitive lens to reexamine the role of science in society and its relationship with other knowledge systems. The coexisting relationship between science knowledge and fortune-telling practices found in this study offers some future directions of research in public understanding of science. First, one suggestion is to consider other factors that may confound the relationship between scientific knowledge and fortune-telling, such as indicators of socio-economic status. Second, another suggestion is to delve into the reasons and motivations why those who are more scientifically knowledgeable are more likely to engage in fortune-telling. Third, such analysis could be performed in other countries. However, as beliefs and practices vary in different cultures, it would be necessary to modify or add new measures to fully consider the historical, social, and cultural contexts unique to the place of study. Fourth, our theoretical and analytical framework could be used to examine different forms of traditional knowledge, as they may associate differently with scientific knowledge (Goode, 2002). Fifth, further efforts could be invested in the construction of alternative representations of public knowledge of science in order to more precisely depict its relationship with other realms of knowledge and belief (Bauer et al., 2000, 2007). Sixth, to further test the “uncertainty” (Chiu, 2006) or the “fateful moment” (Giddens, 1991) hypothesis, a longitudinal study with the same sample could be done to better understand the change in beliefs and practices concurrent with change in life events or cycles. Seventh, to support the statistical data provided in this study, qualitative methods could be used to describe and reconstruct the meaning-making processes of human beings in greater detail. Acknowledgements The authors are thankful to the research team, research assistants, students who have been very supportive to this study, and the anonymous reviewers for their insightful comments on a prior draft of this paper.

Funding The work reported here was supported by Taiwan’s National Science Council under grant number NSC99-2511-S-110-007-MY2.

Notes 1. Taiwan’s folk beliefs represent a set of religious beliefs that are not necessarily based on systematic dogma, canon, or organization. The nature and function of folk beliefs are related to everyday life, including worshiping the ancestors and spirits, seasonal rituals, ceremonies related to life, death, and events in between, etc. The main characteristics of folk beliefs are their synergetic function of bringing together local communities, reliance on gods and spirits, and practicality in relation to daily life situations. 2. The fortune-telling practices of bone reading and abacus calculation were not included as part of the analysis because very low percentages of citizens have used these methods (3.8% and 0.5%, respectively). The choices of “others” and “have never used fortune-telling” (1.2% and 32.4% respectively) were also excluded from the analysis. There was no correlation between “others” fortune-telling and scientific knowledge variables, but respondents who “have never used fortune-telling” showed negative correlations with knowledge of scientific facts (r = -.160, p < .001) and knowledge of scientific methods (r = -.132, p < .001). 3. Four pillars of destiny, frequently called ba-zi, is a conceptual term that describes the four components within the moment of birth, namely year, month, day, and hour, that create a person’s destiny or fate. 4. Chinese astrology, often called zi-wei-dou-shu, is often compared with western astrology. However, unlike western astrology, Chinese astrology is based on a Chinese calendar and not on the celestial bodies of stars and planets.

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5. Glyphomancy is a fortune-telling method in which the glyphs of a written or chosen Chinese character are dissected to understand the hidden meanings behind the expression and combination of the strokes. 6. Feng Shui is historically and widely used to orient and lay out buildings, including tombs, in an auspicious manner determined by reference to local features such as bodies of water, stars, or a compass. 7. Anthroponymy is the study of personal names. 8. Two logistic regression models were also constructed to test how the independent variables would predict the likelihood of engaging in “other” kinds of fortune-telling practices and “have never used fortunetelling.” The overall prediction for the models was 98.8% and 69.4%, respectively. The former model showed no significance in any predictors and the latter model showed significance in six predictors. “Never used fortune-telling” was negatively related to the age of 30–39 years (-.312, p < .05) compared with the age of 50–65 years. Females (-1.241, p < .01) were less likely to never practice fortune-telling than males. Those educated with tertiary education (-.661, p < .05) were less likely to never practice fortune-telling than the less educated. Those with beliefs in old religion (-.819, p < .001) were less likely to never practice fortune-telling than those with new or no religious beliefs. Those living closer to cities (-.273, p < .001) were less likely to never practice any fortune-telling than those living farther away. Married females were more likely to never use fortune-telling than married males (.463, p < .05). Additionally, the higher the knowledge of scientific facts (-.076, p < .01), the more likely the adults would practice fate fortune-telling.

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Author biographies Paichi Pat Shein is an assistant professor at the Institute of Education and the Center for Teacher Education at National Sun Yat-sen University, Taiwan. Her research interest focuses on attitudes toward science and technology, engagement with science and technology, and informal science education. Yuh-Yuh Li is a research fellow at the Center for General Education and the Research Center for Promoting Civic Literacy at National Sun Yat-sen University. His research interest focuses on survey research on public understanding of science, public perceptions of science and technology, and public attitudes toward new technology. Tai-Chu Huang is a professor at the Center for General Education and the director of the Research Center for Promoting Civic Literacy at National Sun Yat-sen University. She has been the principal investigator for the Taiwan Survey of Public Scientific Literacy since 2008. Her research interest focuses on scientific literacy and development of students’ interests and skills in informal education programs.