314-
THE IMPACT OF THE ECONOMY ON SUICIDE AND HOMICIDE RATES IN JAPAN AND THE UNITED STATES
DAVID LESTER, YUTAKA MOTOHASHI &
BIJOU YANG
SUMMARY A time series study of socioeconomic correlates of suicide and homicide in Japan and the USA from 1953 to 1982 revealed cross-national differences. Divorce rates were positively associated with rates of personal violence in the USA but negatively associated with these rates in Japan. Unemployment and female labor force participation also correlated differently with rates of personal violence in the two nations suggesting that different theories may be necessary to account for the variation in rates of personal violence in different societies.
INTRODUCTION Both Durkheim (1897) and Henry and Short (1954) argued that economic prosperity and downturns should have an impact on the suicide rate. Durkheim felt that both economic growth and recession would lead to an increase in suicide since such changing economic times decrease people’s social integration (the degree to which they are integrated into social networks) and social regulation (the degree to which their desires and aspirations are regulated by the society). In contrast, Henry and Short felt that suicide rates would rise only during economic booms and would decrease during recessions. They argued that suicide was less likely when there were clear external events to blame for one’s misery. In economic recessions, people are able to attribute their misery to the poor economic times, and this makes them less depressed and, in the extreme, less suicidal. However, Henry and Short argued that homicide responded in an opposite fashion to these economic factors and, therefore, homicide rates would increase during economic recessions and decrease during economic booms. In a time series study of the USA from 1940 to 1984, Yang (1992) found that unemployment was associated with an increased suicide rate. Increases in the gross national product per capita were associated with decreases in the suicide rate. Yang also examined the impact of divorce rates and found that higher divorce rates were associated with higher suicide rates. In a similar study, Motohashi (1991) explored the associations between social and economic variables and the suicide rate in Japan from 1953 to 1986. He found that unemployment and divorce were associated with the suicide rates during this period in Japan but that the impact of unemployment was more important in the first part of the period studied while the divorce rate was more important in the latter part of the period.
Downloaded from isp.sagepub.com at University of Birmingham on July 3, 2015
’
315
The present study was designed to compare identical sets of socioeconomic variables for their association with suicide and homicide rates in Japan and in the USA for the same time period in order to explore the cross-cultural generality of the findings reported by Yang (1992) and Motohashi (1991).
METHOD A
year period was chosen for which data were available for both Japan and the 1953-1982. Data on the crude suicide rates, overall, male and female, were obtained from Motohashi (1991) and the annual volumes of Vital Statistics of the United States, published by the National Center for Health Statistics. Data on four socioeconomic variables (the unemployment rate, the annual percentage change in the gross national product, female participation in the labor force, and the divorce rate per 1000 persons) were obtained from Motohashi (1991) and Yang (1992). The time series analyses were carried out using Doan (1990) with the Cochrane-Orcutt method to correct for serial autocorrelation.
thirty
USA,
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION The Pearson correlations between the social variables and suicide and homicide rates for Japan and the USA are shown in the Table. For suicide, unemployment rates and female labor force participation were significantly associated with suicide rates in both nations. In addition, divorce rates were positively associated with the suicide rates for the USA. In the multiple regressions (see Table), the set of social variables accounted for a large proportion of the variance of the suicide rates for both Japan (R2 = 0.92) and for the USA (R 2= 0.89). The signs for the effects of unemployment remained positive for both Japan and the USA, whereas the signs for the other social variables had opposite signs for Japan and the USA. It appears then that the deleterious effect of unemployment on suicide rates is consistently found in both Japan and the USA for the period 1953 to 1982. The results for the male and female suicide and homicide rates separately are also shown in the Table. It can be seen that only three reasonably consistent findings emerged (across nations and across gender). 1. Unemployment was positively associated with suicide and homicide rates for both genders and both nations, but had opposite signs in the multiple regression, negative for the USA and positive for Japan. 2. Female labor force participation
was positively associated with suicide and homicide in both nations), but in the multiple regressions the and genders signs were opposite, negative for the USA and positive for Japan. 3. Divorce rates were associated with suicide and homicide rates, positively in the USA but negatively in Japan. This difference persisted in the multiple regressions. The results of these analyses reveal greater cross-national differences than across gender. Male and female rates of suicide and homicide were more similarly associated
rates
(overall, for both
Downloaded from isp.sagepub.com at University of Birmingham on July 3, 2015
316 Table Associations between socioeconomic variables and rates of suicide and homicide in Japan and the USA, 1953-1982
*
two-tailed p < .05
or
better
with the socioeconomic variables than were American and Japanese rates of suicide and homicide. The most consistent cross-national difference was the positive association of divorce rates with both suicide and homicide rates in the USA as compared to the negative
Downloaded from isp.sagepub.com at University of Birmingham on July 3, 2015
317
association in Japan. The rates of divorce are very different in the two nations, ranging from 0.73 per 1,000 persons per year to 1.51 in Japan as compared to a range of 2.1 to 5.3 in the USA. Thus, divorce rates may have a different social meaning as a social indicator in Japan than in the USA. Both unemployment and female participation in the labor force were positively associated with suicide and homicide rates in the USA and Japan, but in the multiple regressions these associations became negative for the USA. Thus, again, national differences were observed in the association of these socioeconomic variables with suicide and homicide rates. This study has failed, therefore, to identify associations between socioeconomic indicators and suicide and homicide rates common to both the USA and Japan. This illustrates the importance of examining the cross-cultural generality of research results and suggests that different theories may be needed to account for the incidence of suicide and homicide in different societies.
REFERENCES
DOAN, T.A. (1990) Regression analysis of time series. Evanston, IL: Var Econometrics. DURKHEIM, E. (1897) Le Suicide. Paris: Felix Alcan. HENRY, A.F. & SHORT, J.F. (1954) Suicide and Homicide. New York: Free Press. MOTOHASHI, Y. (1991) Effects of socioeconomic factors on secular trends in suicide in Japan, 1953-1986. Journal of Biosocial Science, 23, 221-227. YANG, B. (1992) The economy and suicide. American Journal of Economics and Sociology, 51, 87-99.
David
Lester, Center for the Study of Suicide, RR41, 5 Stonegate Court, Blackwood, New Jersey 08012, USA. Motohashi, Department of Public Health, Tokyo Medical and Dental University, Tokyo, Japan. Bijou Yang, Drexel University, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA.
Yutaka
Correspondence to
Dr. Lester.
Downloaded from isp.sagepub.com at University of Birmingham on July 3, 2015
THE IMPACT OF THE ECONOMY ON SUICIDE AND HOMICIDE RATES IN JAPAN AND THE UNITED STATES
DAVID LESTER, YUTAKA MOTOHASHI &
BIJOU YANG
SUMMARY A time series study of socioeconomic correlates of suicide and homicide in Japan and the USA from 1953 to 1982 revealed cross-national differences. Divorce rates were positively associated with rates of personal violence in the USA but negatively associated with these rates in Japan. Unemployment and female labor force participation also correlated differently with rates of personal violence in the two nations suggesting that different theories may be necessary to account for the variation in rates of personal violence in different societies.
INTRODUCTION Both Durkheim (1897) and Henry and Short (1954) argued that economic prosperity and downturns should have an impact on the suicide rate. Durkheim felt that both economic growth and recession would lead to an increase in suicide since such changing economic times decrease people’s social integration (the degree to which they are integrated into social networks) and social regulation (the degree to which their desires and aspirations are regulated by the society). In contrast, Henry and Short felt that suicide rates would rise only during economic booms and would decrease during recessions. They argued that suicide was less likely when there were clear external events to blame for one’s misery. In economic recessions, people are able to attribute their misery to the poor economic times, and this makes them less depressed and, in the extreme, less suicidal. However, Henry and Short argued that homicide responded in an opposite fashion to these economic factors and, therefore, homicide rates would increase during economic recessions and decrease during economic booms. In a time series study of the USA from 1940 to 1984, Yang (1992) found that unemployment was associated with an increased suicide rate. Increases in the gross national product per capita were associated with decreases in the suicide rate. Yang also examined the impact of divorce rates and found that higher divorce rates were associated with higher suicide rates. In a similar study, Motohashi (1991) explored the associations between social and economic variables and the suicide rate in Japan from 1953 to 1986. He found that unemployment and divorce were associated with the suicide rates during this period in Japan but that the impact of unemployment was more important in the first part of the period studied while the divorce rate was more important in the latter part of the period.
Downloaded from isp.sagepub.com at University of Birmingham on July 3, 2015
’
315
The present study was designed to compare identical sets of socioeconomic variables for their association with suicide and homicide rates in Japan and in the USA for the same time period in order to explore the cross-cultural generality of the findings reported by Yang (1992) and Motohashi (1991).
METHOD A
year period was chosen for which data were available for both Japan and the 1953-1982. Data on the crude suicide rates, overall, male and female, were obtained from Motohashi (1991) and the annual volumes of Vital Statistics of the United States, published by the National Center for Health Statistics. Data on four socioeconomic variables (the unemployment rate, the annual percentage change in the gross national product, female participation in the labor force, and the divorce rate per 1000 persons) were obtained from Motohashi (1991) and Yang (1992). The time series analyses were carried out using Doan (1990) with the Cochrane-Orcutt method to correct for serial autocorrelation.
thirty
USA,
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION The Pearson correlations between the social variables and suicide and homicide rates for Japan and the USA are shown in the Table. For suicide, unemployment rates and female labor force participation were significantly associated with suicide rates in both nations. In addition, divorce rates were positively associated with the suicide rates for the USA. In the multiple regressions (see Table), the set of social variables accounted for a large proportion of the variance of the suicide rates for both Japan (R2 = 0.92) and for the USA (R 2= 0.89). The signs for the effects of unemployment remained positive for both Japan and the USA, whereas the signs for the other social variables had opposite signs for Japan and the USA. It appears then that the deleterious effect of unemployment on suicide rates is consistently found in both Japan and the USA for the period 1953 to 1982. The results for the male and female suicide and homicide rates separately are also shown in the Table. It can be seen that only three reasonably consistent findings emerged (across nations and across gender). 1. Unemployment was positively associated with suicide and homicide rates for both genders and both nations, but had opposite signs in the multiple regression, negative for the USA and positive for Japan. 2. Female labor force participation
was positively associated with suicide and homicide in both nations), but in the multiple regressions the and genders signs were opposite, negative for the USA and positive for Japan. 3. Divorce rates were associated with suicide and homicide rates, positively in the USA but negatively in Japan. This difference persisted in the multiple regressions. The results of these analyses reveal greater cross-national differences than across gender. Male and female rates of suicide and homicide were more similarly associated
rates
(overall, for both
Downloaded from isp.sagepub.com at University of Birmingham on July 3, 2015
316 Table Associations between socioeconomic variables and rates of suicide and homicide in Japan and the USA, 1953-1982
*
two-tailed p < .05
or
better
with the socioeconomic variables than were American and Japanese rates of suicide and homicide. The most consistent cross-national difference was the positive association of divorce rates with both suicide and homicide rates in the USA as compared to the negative
Downloaded from isp.sagepub.com at University of Birmingham on July 3, 2015
317
association in Japan. The rates of divorce are very different in the two nations, ranging from 0.73 per 1,000 persons per year to 1.51 in Japan as compared to a range of 2.1 to 5.3 in the USA. Thus, divorce rates may have a different social meaning as a social indicator in Japan than in the USA. Both unemployment and female participation in the labor force were positively associated with suicide and homicide rates in the USA and Japan, but in the multiple regressions these associations became negative for the USA. Thus, again, national differences were observed in the association of these socioeconomic variables with suicide and homicide rates. This study has failed, therefore, to identify associations between socioeconomic indicators and suicide and homicide rates common to both the USA and Japan. This illustrates the importance of examining the cross-cultural generality of research results and suggests that different theories may be needed to account for the incidence of suicide and homicide in different societies.
REFERENCES
DOAN, T.A. (1990) Regression analysis of time series. Evanston, IL: Var Econometrics. DURKHEIM, E. (1897) Le Suicide. Paris: Felix Alcan. HENRY, A.F. & SHORT, J.F. (1954) Suicide and Homicide. New York: Free Press. MOTOHASHI, Y. (1991) Effects of socioeconomic factors on secular trends in suicide in Japan, 1953-1986. Journal of Biosocial Science, 23, 221-227. YANG, B. (1992) The economy and suicide. American Journal of Economics and Sociology, 51, 87-99.
David
Lester, Center for the Study of Suicide, RR41, 5 Stonegate Court, Blackwood, New Jersey 08012, USA. Motohashi, Department of Public Health, Tokyo Medical and Dental University, Tokyo, Japan. Bijou Yang, Drexel University, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA.
Yutaka
Correspondence to
Dr. Lester.
Downloaded from isp.sagepub.com at University of Birmingham on July 3, 2015
