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with children (aged 0–9 years); these differences could become significant with an adequate sample. In adults aged 70 years and older, the overall rate of fall-related injuries was around 0·125 per person per year in both the treatment and control groups. Similarly, for adults aged 60–69 years, the overall rate of injuries from falls was similar between groups (about 0·092 per person per year). By contrast, the overall rate of injuries from falls among children aged 9 years or younger was 0·063 per person per year in the control group and 0·032 per person per year in the intervention group, a difference of 51%. Another limitation was that no attempt was made to monitor non-injurious falls or injuries that did not result in medical attention. Furthermore, few details are presented on the exact location of falls in the treatment and control groups, and the prevalence of hazards in the control homes. Looking at the more frequent event of falls as an outcome, in addition to fall-related injuries, should provide a truer understanding of the role of the environment in falls. This study is a good start in showing that low-cost home-safety modifications can reduce injuries due to falls. However, for people interested in the value

of home modifications to reduce falls among highrisk older adults, this study leaves many important questions unanswered. *Stephen N Robinovitch, Vicky Scott, Fabio Feldman Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, BC, Canada V5A 1S6 (SNR); British Columbia Ministry of Health, Victoria, BC, Canada (VS); and Fraser Health Authority, Surrey, BC, Canada (FF) [email protected] We declare no competing interests. 1

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SMARTRISK. The economic burden of injury in Canada. August, 2009. http://www.parachutecanada.org/downloads/research/reports/ EBI2009-Eng-Final.pdf (accessed Sept 17, 2014). Gillespie LD, Robertson MC, Gillespie WJ, et al. Interventions for preventing falls in older people living in the community. Cochrane Database Syst Rev 2012; 9: CD007146. Nikolaus T, Bach M. Preventing falls in community-dwelling frail older people using a home intervention team (HIT): results from the randomized Falls-HIT trial. J Am Geriatr Soc 2003; 51: 300–05. Turner S, Arthur G, Lyons RA, et al. Modification of the home environment for the reduction of injuries. Cochrane Database Syst Rev 2011; 2: CD003600. Keall MD, Pierse N, Howden-Chapman P, et al. Home modifications to reduce injuries from falls in the Home Injury Prevention (HIPI) study: a cluster-randomised controlled trial. Lancet 2014; published online Sept 23. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(14)61006-0. Public Health Agency of Canada. Seniors’ falls in Canada: second report. 2014. http://www.phac-aspc.gc.ca/seniors-aines/publications/public/ injury-blessure/seniors_falls-chutes_aines/assets/pdf/seniors_falls-chutes_ aines-eng.pdf (accessed July 5, 2014).

Towards evidence-based, quantitative Sustainable Development Goals for 2030 Published Online September 19, 2014 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/ S0140-6736(14)61654-8 See Articles page 239

The success of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs)1 on health has been due to their being easy to understand, ambitious, and achievable and, therefore, suitable for the purposes of advocacy and political mobilisation. The MDGs have brought quantitative targets and measurement of results—previously the domain of the scientific community— to centre stage for politicians worldwide. The three health MDGs (MDG 4, MDG 5, and MDG 6) have acted as a scorecard to measure progress on health, thus providing an empirical basis for the formulation of policy. For example, this scorecard has made it possible for Norwegian Prime Minister Erna Solberg and her colleagues in the MDG Advocacy Group to provide such strong advocacy for continued efforts to reach the MDGs before the deadline of 2015.

Work on the health MDGs has been based throughout on close collaboration between the scientific and political communities. Politicians have been able to convey documented progress towards the goals to the 206

general public, and voters in both donor and recipient countries alike have been happy to support public funding for these efforts. The world community is currently negotiating a new set of goals—the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)—for the post-2015 period. So far, 17 goals and 169 targets have been proposed by the Open Working Group.2 For politicians this number of goals is far too many. To win popular support for a comprehensive and coordinated effort for development, the goals must be easy to communicate. With regard to health, we have faced the additional challenge of combining three goals into one SDG, with an attempt to put the whole range of health issues under one coherent goal. This process, in turn, has contributed to the present “shopping list” of 13 targets within the Open Working Group proposal for a goal on health (SDG 3): “ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages”. www.thelancet.com Vol 385 January 17, 2015

Of course, it is politics that led to such a long list of health targets in the first place, but ultimately it is politics that has to resolve this situation. Politicians have to set priorities. We need a more limited set of goals and targets that are ambitious, easy to understand, and realistic. Importantly, measurement of progress towards the goals and targets must also be possible. To this end, we need contributions from the scientific community. One plausible way forward is shown in a Lancet study by Ole Norheim and colleagues3 on quantification of the overarching 2030 SDG for health to avoid 40% of premature deaths in each country. In their review of mortality rates and trends in 25 countries, four country income groupings, and worldwide, Norheim and colleagues show that it is possible to consolidate targets in various areas, such as child health (MDG 4), maternal health (MDG 5), major infectious diseases (MDG 6), non-communicable diseases (NCDs), including mental health and injuries, and universal health coverage, under one universal and quantitative health goal. The simplicity of this approach is beautiful. Following this pattern, we could develop a tool to measure convergence in health globally, in line with the principle of universality to which we are all committed. This approach seems to make sense from a scientific point of view as well. The proposal to set an overall indicator of avoiding 40% of premature deaths in each country is based on trends in mortality rates over the past 40 years and an estimate of what can be achieved by scaling up current cost-effective approaches. This quantification of a goal on health includes the major targets relating to MDGs 4, 5, and 6 and targets on NCDs proposed by the various communities, notably a 25% reduction in premature mortality from NCDs by 2025. This indicator is evidence based and ambitious yet achievable. It is, therefore, a good starting point for future political action and initiative. Norheim and colleagues’ study3 shows what an important part science could play in the negotiations at the 69th Session of the UN General Assembly. We, therefore, strongly urge the medical community to consider the approach outlined by Norheim and colleagues3 and develop a common position that can enable us to arrive at a single health SDG with a limited number of simple, understandable, and measurable targets. We would also welcome similar approaches for other SDGs by the relevant communities. www.thelancet.com Vol 385 January 17, 2015

Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs/Astrid Sehl

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Norwegian Prime Minister Erna Solberg at Nkhoma Nurse School, Malawi, July 2, 2014

We believe that the health SDG could provide the key framework for global health and prosperity. In anticipation of this framework, Norway is already taking concrete action. First, we are taking steps to improve public health in Norway. Our aim is to reduce NCDs, including mental disorders, by 25% by 2025. Second, Norway is working together with partner nations, the UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, and World Bank President Jim Yong Kim to develop financial frameworks both for the current MDGs and for the future SDGs. Third, Norway is actively promoting projects that focus on both education and health, reflecting the aim of the SDG agenda of realising synergies between sectors. Fourth, later in September, 2014, we will launch a national initiative called Vision 2030 to encourage researchers, commercial actors, civil society, and others to produce innovative ideas that could play a part in achieving the education and health SDGs both in Norway and abroad. Finally, together with partners in global health, Norway will explore ways to accelerate the deployment of innovations that are currently in the pipeline, and how investments can be catalysed to harness these innovations for promoting global health in the longer term.4 With so much left to do in the field of global health, by scientists as well as politicians, there is no time to lose. It is, therefore, vital that we all take action now. *Børge Brende, Bent Høie Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 0032 Oslo, Norway (BB); and Ministry of Health and Care Services, Oslo, Norway (BH) [email protected]

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BB is Norwegian Minister of Foreign Affairs. BH is Norwegian Minister of Health and Care Services.

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UN. The Millennium Development Goals report 2013. New York: United Nations, 2013. Sustainable Development Platform. Outcome Document—Open Working Group on Sustainable Development Goals. 2014. http:// sustainabledevelopment.un.org/focussdgs.html (accessed Sept 11, 2014).

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Norheim OF, Jha P, Admasu K, et al. Avoiding 40% of the premature deaths in each country, 2010–30: review of national mortality trends to help quantify the UN Sustainable Development Goal for health. Lancet 2014; published online Sept 19. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S01406736(14)61591-9. Furtwangler T. Help us envision how innovation will change the world. PATH blog, Aug 27, 2014. http://www.path.org/blog/2014/08/envisioninnovation (accessed Sept 12, 2014).

Quantifying targets for the SDG health goal Published Online September 19, 2014 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/ S0140-6736(14)61655-X See Articles page 239

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The Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) represent the best example of an international commitment to a set of normative principles underpinned by ideals of equity, solidarity, and peace.1,2 The goals achieved universal support because they were ambitious, included indicators that permitted measurement and accountability, and set 2015 for final reporting. The goals institutionalised poverty as multidimensional, and shaped development as beyond economics.3 Criticisms of the MDGs included the omission of many of the concerns of the Millennium Declaration, and the lack of adequate consultation on the process.4 Several contributions have been made from various constituencies and sectors to the successor arrangements for the post-2015 era, including a Global Thematic Consultation on Health.5 In an effort to ensure wide participation, a member-state driven process was established through an Open Working Group (OWG) which, with widespread consultation, crafted a set of 17 proposed Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and 169 targets.6 This approach, essentially a political process, retains a normative feature in direct lineage to the Millennium Declaration. Health is the third of the OWG-proposed SDGs with an overall goal “to ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages”.6 In the context of a need for quantification, the paper by Ole Norheim and colleagues7 in The Lancet is an important contribution. Their proposed goal is to avoid, in each country, 40% of premature deaths (ie, deaths under age 70 years that would be seen in the 2030 population at 2010 death rates) and improve health care at all ages. Reinforcing this are four global subtargets for 2030: avoid two-thirds of child and maternal deaths; two-thirds of deaths due to tuberculosis, HIV, and malaria; a third of premature deaths from non-communicable diseases (NCDs); and a

third of those from other causes (other communicable diseases, undernutrition, and injuries). According to the authors’ detailed analyses, achieving these targets would result in a halving of deaths under age 50 years, avoiding a third of the NCD deaths in people aged 50–69 years, and, overall, result in avoidance of 40% of deaths under age 70 years by 2030. The significant advance in this paper is to introduce quantification to the target-setting process, based on rigorous analysis of mortality trends by age as well as by disease category. The proposed targets focus on premature mortality and avoid more complex metrics that are much harder to measure and track over time. The authors stress the importance of countries adapting the targets to their own circumstances. The logic of the argument is impeccable, but there are several aspects that must also be considered in deliberations on the SDG health goal and targets. Although the addition of improving health care at all ages was not the focus of this paper, it is surprising that there is no mention of universal health coverage (UHC), which includes promotion, prevention, and treatment services. UHC is one of the targets in the OWG-proposed SDG 3 and would be fundamental to achieving the reductions in mortality proposed.8 Reference is frequently made to the need to accelerate current progress toward MDG-related targets to achieve the targets Norheim and colleagues propose, but there is little indication of how this is to be done. Perhaps less emphasis might be put on the lack of political will and more on the scarcity of resources, both human and financial, and the inadequacies of many health systems. It might also be made clear that the focus on premature mortality does not, in any way, diminish the importance of several of the other targets under SDG 3 proposed by the OWG: strengthening prevention and treatment of substance misuse, increasing health www.thelancet.com Vol 385 January 17, 2015

Towards evidence-based, quantitative Sustainable Development Goals for 2030.

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