Psychological Reporb, 1990, 66, 529-530. @ Psychological Reports 1990
TWO-WEEK PROGNOSIS I N PROBLEM DRINKERS ' SHAN THOMAS-DOBSON, BRENT HUGHEY
California School of Professional Psychology-Fresno MARK D. CORGIAT Pocatello Regional Medical Center, Pocatello, Idaho
DONALD I. TEMPLER
California School of Projesional Psychology-Fresno
Summary.-The predictors of favorable status two weeks after entry into an alcoholjsm rehabilitation program were measured. Favorable outcome was predicted by lower MMPI Pd Scale, being older, and having been older at rime first intoxicated. Implications were discussed for these findings for the shortest prognostic interval apparently reported in the alcoholism literature.
The purpose of this research was to determine the variables predictive of very short-term prognosis in men recently identified as problem drinkers. The previous research has typically determined prognosis at about a year with the shortest previous period being 3 mo. (Freedburg & Johnston, 1979; Miller & Joyce, 1979; Mindlin, 1960). The present determination was made at two weeks. The present research appeared to have practical implications. Employers interested in short-term productivity must make termination vs continuation decisions immediately rather than waiting for treatment outcome months or years later. Judges often must make immediate decisions affecting public safety, such as the removal of a driver's license or incarceration. The independent variables chosen were those that had predicted outcome with longer time periods. Alcoholics with more favorable outcome tend to have a positive hlstory of DTs, a lower MMPI Psychopathic Deviation Scale, older age, a lesser history of arrests, higher educational level, older age at first time intoxicated, lower score on the Michigan Alcoholism Screening Test, higher income, positive history of AA attendance, and first time in alcoholism treatment (Gibbs & Flanagan, 1977). The subjects were 141 participants in a multiple drunk-driving program. They were males with two or more drunk-driving convictions who had been given the option of attending treatment or spending time in jail. They ranged in age from 18 to 69 yr., with a mean of 34.6 yr. and a standard deviation of 12.2 yr. The range in education was from 4 yr. to 18 yr., with a mean of 11.4 yr. and a standard deviation of 2.6 yr. O n the Michigan Alcoholism Screening Test (Selzer, 1971) they ranged in scores from 1 to 21, with a mean of 8.03 and a standard deviation of 4.59. 'Address correspondence to Prof. Donald I. Templer, Professor of Psychology, California School of Professional Psychology, 1350 M Street, Fresno, CA 93721.
530
S. THOMAS-DOBSON, ET AL.
Within three days of their arrests the men received an initial interview consisting of both a psychosocial history and the obtainment of the independent variable information for this study. The subject was then assigned to a case counselor to whom he reported for a 15-min. session every 2 wk. for 1 yr, thereafter. It was in the second session, 2 wk. after entrance into the program, that the dependent variable of not drinking vs drinking was assessed. Twenty-nine men reported they had not consumed alcohol during the 2-wk. period and 112 reported that they had. Three independent variables significantly predicted favorable outcomeMMPI Pd Scale - .52 ( p < .001), age .22 ( p < .05), and age at first time intoxicated .21 ( p < .05). These findings are consistent with previous literature measuring progress with longer times. Alcoholics who are less antisocial, who are older, and with later onset that apparently reflects less essential and serious alcoholism, have better prognoses. This research indicates that assessment of very short-term prognosis is possible and provides a coherent, albeit preliminary and tentative, perspective that could form the basis for more comprehensive and definitive research. REFERENCES GIBBS,L., & FLANAGAN, J. (1977) Prognostic indicators of alcoholism treatment outcome. International Journal of Addictions, 12, 1097-1141. FREEDBURG, E. J., &JOHNSTON, W. E. (1979) Behavioral change in a short-term, intensive m d timodal alcoholism treatment program. Psychological Reports, 44, 791-797. MILLER,W. R., &JOYCE,M. A. (1979) Prediction of abstinence, controlled drinking and heavy drinking outcomes following behavioral self-control training. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychologjr, 41, 67-70. MINDLM,D. (1960) Evaluation of therapy for alcoholics in a workhouse setting. Quarterly Journal of Studies on Alcohol, 21, 90-112. SELZER,M. (1971) The Michigan Alcoholism Screening Test: the quest For a new diagnostic instrument. American Journal of Psychiatry, 127, 1653-1658.
Accepted March 13, 1990
TWO-WEEK PROGNOSIS I N PROBLEM DRINKERS ' SHAN THOMAS-DOBSON, BRENT HUGHEY
California School of Professional Psychology-Fresno MARK D. CORGIAT Pocatello Regional Medical Center, Pocatello, Idaho
DONALD I. TEMPLER
California School of Projesional Psychology-Fresno
Summary.-The predictors of favorable status two weeks after entry into an alcoholjsm rehabilitation program were measured. Favorable outcome was predicted by lower MMPI Pd Scale, being older, and having been older at rime first intoxicated. Implications were discussed for these findings for the shortest prognostic interval apparently reported in the alcoholism literature.
The purpose of this research was to determine the variables predictive of very short-term prognosis in men recently identified as problem drinkers. The previous research has typically determined prognosis at about a year with the shortest previous period being 3 mo. (Freedburg & Johnston, 1979; Miller & Joyce, 1979; Mindlin, 1960). The present determination was made at two weeks. The present research appeared to have practical implications. Employers interested in short-term productivity must make termination vs continuation decisions immediately rather than waiting for treatment outcome months or years later. Judges often must make immediate decisions affecting public safety, such as the removal of a driver's license or incarceration. The independent variables chosen were those that had predicted outcome with longer time periods. Alcoholics with more favorable outcome tend to have a positive hlstory of DTs, a lower MMPI Psychopathic Deviation Scale, older age, a lesser history of arrests, higher educational level, older age at first time intoxicated, lower score on the Michigan Alcoholism Screening Test, higher income, positive history of AA attendance, and first time in alcoholism treatment (Gibbs & Flanagan, 1977). The subjects were 141 participants in a multiple drunk-driving program. They were males with two or more drunk-driving convictions who had been given the option of attending treatment or spending time in jail. They ranged in age from 18 to 69 yr., with a mean of 34.6 yr. and a standard deviation of 12.2 yr. The range in education was from 4 yr. to 18 yr., with a mean of 11.4 yr. and a standard deviation of 2.6 yr. O n the Michigan Alcoholism Screening Test (Selzer, 1971) they ranged in scores from 1 to 21, with a mean of 8.03 and a standard deviation of 4.59. 'Address correspondence to Prof. Donald I. Templer, Professor of Psychology, California School of Professional Psychology, 1350 M Street, Fresno, CA 93721.
530
S. THOMAS-DOBSON, ET AL.
Within three days of their arrests the men received an initial interview consisting of both a psychosocial history and the obtainment of the independent variable information for this study. The subject was then assigned to a case counselor to whom he reported for a 15-min. session every 2 wk. for 1 yr, thereafter. It was in the second session, 2 wk. after entrance into the program, that the dependent variable of not drinking vs drinking was assessed. Twenty-nine men reported they had not consumed alcohol during the 2-wk. period and 112 reported that they had. Three independent variables significantly predicted favorable outcomeMMPI Pd Scale - .52 ( p < .001), age .22 ( p < .05), and age at first time intoxicated .21 ( p < .05). These findings are consistent with previous literature measuring progress with longer times. Alcoholics who are less antisocial, who are older, and with later onset that apparently reflects less essential and serious alcoholism, have better prognoses. This research indicates that assessment of very short-term prognosis is possible and provides a coherent, albeit preliminary and tentative, perspective that could form the basis for more comprehensive and definitive research. REFERENCES GIBBS,L., & FLANAGAN, J. (1977) Prognostic indicators of alcoholism treatment outcome. International Journal of Addictions, 12, 1097-1141. FREEDBURG, E. J., &JOHNSTON, W. E. (1979) Behavioral change in a short-term, intensive m d timodal alcoholism treatment program. Psychological Reports, 44, 791-797. MILLER,W. R., &JOYCE,M. A. (1979) Prediction of abstinence, controlled drinking and heavy drinking outcomes following behavioral self-control training. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychologjr, 41, 67-70. MINDLM,D. (1960) Evaluation of therapy for alcoholics in a workhouse setting. Quarterly Journal of Studies on Alcohol, 21, 90-112. SELZER,M. (1971) The Michigan Alcoholism Screening Test: the quest For a new diagnostic instrument. American Journal of Psychiatry, 127, 1653-1658.
Accepted March 13, 1990
