USING TECHNOLOGY TO ACCESS REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION C H A R L E S K. MINNS

Department of Fisheries and Oceans, Great Lakes Laboratory for Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, BayfieM Institute, P.O. Box 5050, 867 Lakeshore Road, Burlington, Ontario L7R 4/16

(Received April 1990)

'The most human thing about people is technology.' MARSHALL McLUHAN

Abstract. Distinctions between holistic and presciptive technologies, and holistic and reductionist science are a backdrop to examination of two widespread environmental problems: eutrophication in the Bay of Quinte, Lake Ontario, and acidification of lakes in eastern Canada. Evidence is presented on a shift from prescriptive toward holistic approaches. Holistic solutions to technological limitations are discussed with emphasis on the interactive procedures people use to solve problems, rather than on the physical tools which are often employed in a prescriptive manner. Local gathering and integration of environmental information is presented as the key to macro-environmental assessments. Recommendations stress (i) the need for ecologists in every ecosystem, (ii) training with emphasis on problem-solving techniques, (iii) wide-spread use of microcomputers, a potent holistic technology, to transfer information and concepts, and (iv) local selection of indicators with the advice that they be simple and biotic.

Introduction

In the 1989 Massey Lectures, broadcast by the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation, Dr. Ursula Franklin of the University of Toronto chose the subject 'The Real World of Technology'. She focused on differences between holistic and prescriptive technologies and the necessary linkage between technology and ethics. Holistic technologies promote growth, require skill to use and, therefore, cannot be commandeered. They are also tied to social and environmental contexts. For example, invention of the potter's wheel allowed skilled artisans to make new pottery forms but did not replace them. The wheel fitted into the existing context. Individuals still commanded whole tasks. Holistic technology enables, empowers, the individual. Another example is written language (alphabets) which has greatly extended human expression and sharing of ideas. Prescriptive technologies promote production, can be commandeered, and strive to be independent of context and externalities. Prescriptive practice usually implies there is 'only one way of doing the job'. Prescription eliminates choice and demands compliance. Prescriptive technologies bind the individual. Henry Ford's automobile assembly lines epitomize the Environmental Monitoring and Assessment 20: 141-158, 1992. 9 1992KluwerAcademiePublishers. Printedin theNetherlands.

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prescriptive approach. Nowadays, prescriptive technologies tend to replace people. Dr. Franklin also argued that technologies have profoundly influenced our social and cultural patterns. Witness how the needs of cars have dictated the course of urban development in North America. Earlier in human history, we relied primarily on holistic technologies and cultural values were set before technologies were applied. Now, we are often confronted with prescriptions seeking application while our values lag far behind. Unfortunately, whether many technologies are holistic or prescriptive depends on the values of the people using them. For example, computers can be used to empower or control people. Current environmental science has been dominated by prescriptive practices and that dominance constitutes the main technological barrier to the development of large scale environmental assessments. The holistic-prescriptive scheme is partially analogous to the holism-reductionism dichotomy in science. Holistic environmental science begins with a problem-wide appraisal which leads to specific action on high priority items attuned to solutions. The prescriptive-reductionist approach is an amalgam of tiny components paying little regard to the whole problem. Prescriptive approaches reduce complex problems to scientifically acceptable sub-problems rather than seek solutions. The emphasis is on measurement rather than management, accounting rather than responsibility. In this paper, I describe prescriptive and holistic approaches to the evaluation of some environmental problems. I argue that how we use technology is as important as the tools themselves. Finally, I recommend a holistic approach to breaching the technological barriers to environmental information on both micro- and macro- scales. To illustrate points and issues I have used two familiar ecosystem problems which I have worked on for several years. Since 1974, I have been part of a multi-agency group studying nutrient management and ecosystem restoration in the Bay of Quinte, Lake Ontario. Nutrient management is a local problem though it occurs throughout the world. The other problem is acidic deposition and acidification of lakes in eastern Canada. I have been working on aspects of this regional problem since 1979. Neither of these problems has been completely resolved but we have learned much. There are lessons we can apply. The other context for this paper is rising concern for the future of the 'ecosphere'. The ecosphere is threatened by the dual onslaught of the growing human population and the rapid spread of resource-intensive technologies. Current global forecasts are gloomy and demand that the 1990s be the 'turnaround decade'. I think the key to the solution lies in the subject of this workshop: giving people access to environmental information.

Management of the Bay of Quinte Ecosystem The Bay of Quinte is a large Z-shaped bay (256 km 2) adjoining the eastern basin of Lake Ontario (Figure 1). The large drainage basin includes both igneous and sedimentary terrains dominated by forest and agriculture respectively. In the 50's and 60's, water quality and fisheries deteriorated. Towns and cities beside the Bay had grown and installed sewers to carry human an industrial wastes into the Bay (Figure 2). Householders used increasing quantities of phosphate detergents. Excess nutrients, particularly phosphorous (P), stimulated algal growth. The algae smothered and reduced submerged

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Following the work of Vollenweider (1968), much effort was applied to the calculation of nutrient budgets in aquatic ecosystems receiving excess loading. Johnson and Owen (1971) presented the first phosphorus budget for the Bay of Quinte. They showed that, despite the large inputs coming from the drainage basin, point sources inputs were the main cause of degraded water quality, particularly in the summer when most production occurs. Their study lay the groundwork which led to a program to build and upgrade sewage treatment facilities around the Bay. Minns et al. (1986b) expanded the analysis of Bay nutrient budgets to produce annual estimates for the period of 1965-1981. Their analysis confirmed that point source inputs had caused the water quality problems but showed that sediment phosphorous retention and release would slow the rate of ecosystem recovery. The construction of nutrient budgets follow a prescriptive approach to environmental assessment. Budgets require measures of inputs (loading), outputs (flushing) and storage (deposition) (Figure 3). Nutrient budgets treat lakes and bays like chemostats, continuously-stirred homogeneous reactors. In the Bay of Quinte nutrient budgeting, we followed an 'assembly-line' approach. Examining the elements of the budget statement, we find that most of the components were measured by a wide range of agencies, many without a direct

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agencies. involvement in the local situation. The main agents of data integration, Project Quinte, were not members of the measurement agencies (Figure 4). Thus the agencies who measured the components made little investment in one of the prime data uses. A prescriptive approach had resulted in the problem being broken down into many components dispersed across a spectrum of uncoordinated agencies without regard to the solution of the nutrient management problem. Measurement was a substitute for problem-solving. Until, Project Quinte examined nutrient management, nobody "owned' the problem. Other ecosystem components were studied in a prescriptive way. The 'theories' then prevailing like tropho-dynamics and energy flow assessments of freshwater ecosystems, dictated much of the project's content. Fish ecologists studied fish, zooplankton ecologists studied zooplankton, etc. Most component studies were oriented that way. In the phase of the program leading to publication of a volume of results (Minns et al., 1986a), there were successful efforts to cross-link, integrate, synthesize the components (Johnson, 1986; Hurley et al., 1986; Minns, 1987). Newer theories concerning 'top-down' vs 'bottom-up' ecosystem control and particle-size spectrum theory were examined in those papers. In

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conventional terms, Project Quinte has been, and continues to be, successful but more extensive integration of results and concepts was hampered by the prescriptive approach. Not all the constituent studies, arising from the disaggregation of a problem, will be addressed and those that are may be difficult to link for lack of shared contexts and indicators. Fortunately, events within the IJC provided new impetus for the integration of Bay of Quinte environmental information. In 1986, the IJC's Water Quality Board, weary of status quo reporting of conditions, called on Canadian and U.S. agencies to prepare 'Remedial Action Plans' (RAPs) for all 42 Areas of Concern (AOCs) around the Great Lakes including the Bay of Quinte. They demanded that the RAPs reflect the'Ecosystem Approach' adopted in the 1978 GLWQA and emphasized in the 1987 renewal of the GLWQA. The ecosystem approach recognizes people's role within the ecosystem and the need to balance economic, social, and ecological factors using holistic management (Christie et al., 1986). In the Bay of Quinte and other 'RAP' sites, technical advisory committees (TACs) have been assembled with experts drawn from several agencies. In addition, public advisory committees (PACs) have been formed in most RAP areas. The TACs assemble the scientific information concerning the status of the RAP site, identify potential remedial actions, and evaluate their utility. The PACs both represent the public at large in formulating goals and objectives, and facilitate the response of the public to proposed remedial actions. The TACs and PACs work together to ensure that the technical information is disseminated in an understandable form and that the concerns of the public are adequately examined. The RAP process requires a Phase I report characterizing the AOC and the status of up to fourteen impaired uses be prepared. A Phase II report presents a remedial action plan including a consensus technical assessment, the public's preferred options, and implementation and monitoring schedules. Not all RAPs are as advanced as those in areas like the Bay of Quinte, Hamilton Harbour, Green Bay- Michigan, where immense databases had been assembled in previous studies. In the Bay of Quinte, the RAP process has forced a consideration of a wider range of issues than the main focus of Project Quinte - nutrient management. In the RAP process, the people, including scientists, are expected to solve whole ecosystem problems. In Project Quinte, scientists were expected to understand the problem. In the Quinte RAP, the TAC has divided the problem into three areas - nutrients, contaminants, and physical habitat though striving to maintain and assess important cross-linkages. Each of these areas is at a different stage within the RAP process. The RAP committee has drafted Phase I and II reports for nutrient management and gathered enough data to prepare a Phase I report on contaminants. As yet, there is not enough information to prepare a Phase I for habitat. The TAC and PAC have jointly recognized there are broader issues than water quality and fish health involved. Many of the issues relate to 'sustainable development' issues examined in the Brundtland Commission report (Our Common Future, 1988). This is difficult terrain for both the scientists and public involved. All the connections between land, air and water uses have not been explored in the Quinte context. In the Quinte R A P , we place emphasis on using simulation models to both integrate existing information and knowledge, and to evaluate remedial options. So far, the TAC

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has commissioned nutrient management and contaminant models. A project to model fish habitat using a geographic information system (GIS) has begun. Soon, further contaminant modelling will be done and a model of key biotic interactions will be constructed. The modelling exercises draw on the Quinte database, the knowledge of those who have studied the Bay, and the expertise of many specialists. These studies provide the direction for research and monitoring activities, and the basis for information exchange between the TAC and PAC. Ultimately, the TAC expects an ecosystem management model will emerge giving decision-makers an integrated basis for evaluation of options. The Quinte RAP process has altered the perspectives of the technical experts involved. Before the RAP, the experts tended to look on Quinte ecosystem components as blackboxes. Bay sections were compartments and river and sewage inputs arose at points. The experts were aware and sensitive to the broader issues but lacked mandates and mechanisms to tackle the whole problem. The TAC's interaction with the local communities through the PAC has made them more aware of local social and environmental contexts and concerns. Local issues did not always overlap with the experts' research interests. Their attempt to take a broader, ecosystem, view in the RAP process has emphasized the importance of geographic context and the need to integrate air, land, and water management. Ecosystem problems have spatial and temporal dimensions which had often been ignored in earlier management attempts. The experts have recognized that ecosystem management is an iterative, learning process and that the people living in those ecosystems 'own' the problems and the benefits not the experts. Prescriptive methodologies implemented by far-offagencies will not suffice. Local groups need the resources to gather and organize ecosystem information if they are to succeed in ensuring their ecosystem is sustainable. Environmental experts are only a small part of the management team. In a sense, grouping similar local problems in a macrocontext, i.e. all Areas of Concern (AOCs) in the Great Lakes basin, tended to divert attention from local problems and local solutions. The RAP process returns the ownership of the problem to the people most affected. Obviously, many areas, not just AOCs, have problems such as eutrophication, contamination, leaky landfills, and destruction of wetland habitats. Scientists prefer analyzing these problems on a generic level without regard for the geographic context. As with the Bay of Quinte's shift from Project to RAP, there is a general need to shift from prescriptive measurement methods to holistic methods like ecosystem modelling where integration of the whole problem can be achieved and whole solutions identified and implemented. Acidification of Eastern Canadian Lakes

In the late 1970's, Canada began a large study of acidic deposition. This followed a lengthy period when there was already evidence of the effects of acid gases and acid deposition on ecosystems. Earlier solutions to local human health and ecosystem impacts produced taller emission stacks and dispersion of the pollution over a much larger area. Thus

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emerged LRTAP - Long Range Transport of Atmospheric Pollution. The overall study approach was largely prescriptive. Individual and groups of scientists devised pieces of research which they related to the problem. Certainly in the aquatic sphere, some study components addressed the total issue. Populations of lakes across the region affected were assessed and a network of calibrated watersheds established were chemical budgets of inputs and outputs were measured. As the Department of Fisheries and Oceans was organizing and fielding its program to assess the impacts on fish and fish habitats, our research group proposed a regional approach to estimate the impact of acidic deposition on all lake ecosystems in eastern Canada (Minns et al., 1986c). After an initial attempt to build a simple model of lake acidification and the impact on fish yield, we used a problem-solving technique to focus our efforts. Using the adaptive environmental assessment and modelling technique (AEAM) developed by Holling and his colleagues at the University of British Columbia, we gathered a group of 40-50 experts to assist in the construction of a regional acidification. That effort formally began in 1982 and produced tangible results in 1990 (Marmorek et al., 1990, Jones et al., 1990; and Minns et al., 1990). The AEAM technique uses an iterative and integrative approach to simulation modelling. The aims include using simple techniques, making maximal use of existing information, identifying critical uncertainties to which research can be directed, and assessing the scope for action. At the outset, we envisaged a model predicting the temporal chemical and fishery dynamics of individual lakes in relation to varying acidic deposition rates. The predictions would be aggregated into regional units to provide a statement of overall impacts. We quickly found the model had to be simpler than imagined if we wanted to make regional predictions. This meant building a simple regional model which could be used to assess overall impacts and would not be considered to have enough detail or complexity by many other scientists. As we accepted the necessity of extreme simplicity, we saw a framework emerge which allowed us to examine the central policy issue: how much must acid emissions be reduced to bring lake impacts down to acceptable levels. Our model links (i) North American sulphur dioxide emissions via a simple transfer model to regional patterns of acid sulphate deposition, (ii) acidic deposition to watershed and lake acidification, (iii) lake acidification to biotic impoverishment (Jones et aL, 1990; Minns et aL, 1990). We and others in DFO's Economic and Commercial Analysis Division (ECAD), Ottawa, have used our chemical and biotic predictions to estimate the socio-economic impacts related to recreational fishing in eastern Canada (Minns and Kelso, 1986; DPA Group Inc., 1987; Luc Michaud Inc., 1987). Earlier attempts ot promote emission controls relied on point indicators of impact, usually using chemical rather than biological measures. Point estimates of impact can not be weighed against the estimated total costs of emission reduction. Spatially integrated estimates of impact were needed to balance the policy discussions. This viewpoint is now gaining wider acceptance (Streets, 1989; Briassoulis, 1987). This framework, an extension of the well-know dose-response toxicity model, can b e applied to most situations (Figure 5). The framework has four axes (source, dose, response, and resource) with successive pairs forming four quadrants (transfer, effect,

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impact, and policy). This scheme recognizes that pollutant doses have sources, that effects can be translated into indicators of impact, and that policy-making depends on comparison of resource losses with source controls. Often source controls have been compared with dose-response curves producing a lop-sided 'cost-benefit' debate. Spatial and temporal axes are implicit in this scheme. Clark (1985) has considered the interactions of the time, space, and model or framework specification for climate change and noted the difficulties. Each framework axis has different spatial and temporal constraints. For example, the source may be in one region and the impacted resource in another. Newer environmental problems such as the Chernobyl nuclear disaster and climate change, have

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large spatio-temporal dimensions making public policy formulation more difficult. Our acidification impact model considers a source area covering eastern North America and a resource area covering eastern Canada, east of the Ontario-Manitoba border and south of 52~ N (Figure 6). Since we used steady state modelling, temporal bounds are defined by the expected 5 to 15 yr time-frames for implementation of emission control options. The simple secondary watershed structure in our regional model revealed a complex pattern of effects when emission control strategies were overlain on differing regional aquatic sensitivities (Jones et al., 1990). Of course, our approach was not truly holistic in that we have not included all sources and all types of resource impacts. Attempts to promote such holistic approaches have been resisted by the infrastructures of government agencies. Our work on acid rain modelling has shown the importance of a holistic integrating framework. Our experiences emphasize the need for simplicity since background data will always be limited on broad regional scales. Use of the AEAM methodology helped promote consensus-building among a large group of scientists and linked their individual research efforts into model useful for formulating and evaluating policy options. The AEAM process also ensured that effort was balanced between the development of a credible site acidification model and the assembly of a regionalization framework for extrapolation of predictions. The regional model established the importance of spatial considerations when evaluating policies. The overall framework provides a mechanism for integrating assessment, monitoring, and prediction, which allows people to make informed decisions. Discussion

There is growing concern, even alarm, about the deteriorating condition of the ecosphere and spreading acceptance of the need to press for urgent solution of major problems. Environmental science is responding to the need for solutions. In both examples discussed above, there is evidence of a transition from prescriptive to holistic research approaches. In the Bay of Quinte, the transition has been prompted by the shift from 'Project Quinte', a research study, to 'Remedial Action Plan', the evaluation, selection, and implementation of measures to restore the ecosystem. In the Acid Rain problem, the transition has been arisen from the need to ensure there is a balanced evaluation of sources and resources when control strategies are selected. Holistic science is needed in these and the many other environmental problems. The many interactions and interconnections between ecosystem components and between stresses cannot be adequately addressed with prescriptive methods. Because many of the earth's current problems have arisen as a result of human technology, there might be a temptation to see rejection of technology as part of the solution. However, as the McLuhan quotation at the beginning notes, technology is an essential feature of humanness. What has been lacking, as Franklin pointed out, is the effort to update of our values and ethics and the determination to use holistic rather than prescriptive tools. I have looked to technology for the basis for breaching the

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technological barriers to regional environmental information. The transition process has lead me to several conclusions. These are (i) Scientists must work more closely with the public and contribute more to environmental problemsolving, (ii) Formal problem solving techniques should to be used more extensively, (iii) Explicit spatial approaches, geographic contexts, must be used in assessments, (iv) Shortages of experts will persist, (v) Macro-scale environmental assessments should be built from numerous integrative micro-scale assessments. Scientists must become more involved in problem solving even though it may decrease their specific research outputs. Discussing the role of scientists in the acid deposition issue, Wilks (1985) quoted Kant - 'It is often necessary to make a decision on the basis of knowledge sufficient for action but insufficient to satisfy the intellect'. This situation is not unique to the acid rain problem. It is hard to 'scientifically prove' the need for action. Policymakers prefer definite alternative actions in time-frames ill-suited to the reaction time of scientists. Scientists will have to be more willing to apply their knowledge and experience to problem-solving without abandoning their principles. Scientists prefer to stay aloof of every-day aspects of problems and yet expect to 'set the agenda' (Aim, 1989). Complex environmental problems need holistic integrative approaches. There is growing interest in formal approaches to environmental planning and problem-solving (Briassoulis, 1989; Kozlowski, 1986). They are often needed to diffuse the ideological conflicts, humanistic vs technocratic, among experts (Miller 1984a, b, 1986). Such differences are not confined to expert groups and yet must be reconciled if acceptable environmental solutions are enacted. These techniques must be developed and used by all segments of society. Techniques which promote rational, objective evaluations will help society find solutions to the pressing environmental problems. Our experience using AEAM, with its emphasis on explicit modelling of selected elements, has been positive though many scientists have difficulty reconciling their individual objectives whith those of groups and society. Modelling is a primary holistic technology as users must state their assumptions explicitly and decide what to exclude from the model. Jeffers (1982) defined modelling as 'a formal expression of the relationship between defined entities in physical or mathematical terms'. Experiences in the Bay of Quinte RAP process and in regional acid rain impact assessment have convinced me of the important role of explicit modelling. Such an approach, a central element of systems analysis (Jeffers, 1978), is still not used extensively by environmental scientists though its role is growing. Recent artificial intelligence developments (e.g. expert systems) should expand the application of modelling (Loehle, 1987, Muetzelfeldt et al., 1989). There are spatial aspects of acidification and similar problems such as climate change, long-range atmospheric transport of contaminants, loss of fish habitat to development, etc. This has led us to examine the use of geographic information systems (GIS) technology. GIS provides the means for integrating large amounts of spatial data (Burrough, 1986) for assessment and modelling purposes. We can construct maps of environmental conditions from limited point data using a variety of contouring techniques. At present, GIS's are mostly being used to build spatial inventories such as

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municipal land-use, forest inventories for timber companies, etc. However, GISs can potentially be used with simulation models to predict the spatial consequences of current environmental problems and control policies. For example, we are now building models of fish habitat in Great Lakes RAP sites and a regional climate change model to predict fisheries impacts using GIS. People use 'mental maps' of their world when making decisions (Gould and White, 1986). Many scientific papers include maps to convey context and spatial relationships. Geographic context has a large bearing on the scope of environmental assessments and on the nature of the solutions. Unfortunately, we know little of the rules needed to set the spatial extents needed in the evaluation of environmental stresses. Maps provide an efficient means of conveying large quantities of information and GISs can bring a dynamic, interactive element to spatial aspects of environmental assessment. As the technology evolves and becomes more accessible and as the baseline resource maps are completed, GIS will be applied in every locality. Expert systems can be interfaced between map construction and analysis systems, and people with spatial problems to solve (Robinson et al., 1986). People will be able to integrate data gathered in their area and thereby contribute more effectively to the local decision-making. Then regional environmental problems will be assessed via the coalescing of data from many areas. This will require that there be people in all areas gathering data. At present, because there is much emphasis on the application of complex measurement systems, data collection mechanisms are easily overwhelmed and extensive coverage is inadequate. By many accounts, the world faces a severe shortage of scientists in the near future. Expert systems have much potential and an important role given that shortage. As pointed out above, application of expert systems to modelling and GIS will increase their use. Coulson et al. (1987) suggested a wide range of resource management applications. Lein (1989) has described an expert system approach to environmental assessment. Applications of artificial intelligence technology risk being prescriptive but we can expect people to exploit them without becoming beholden to them. They can provide people everywhere with access to conceptual understanding, context specific information, and simulations of complex problems. Here, I have advocated a wide range of technologies, many based on computers. Computer technology, particularly microcomputers, can provide a myriad of holistic tools. Human minds singly cannot carry and resolve the complexities of ecosystem interactions both natural and man-induced. Further, humans, because of their differing knowledge and experience bases, often have difficulty communicating with each other. Microcomputer applications ranging from simulation modelling to GIS, supported by expert systems, can help groups of humans to solve problems in their ecosystems. Below, I have outlined an approach to helping people access environmental information. The main technological barrier to the formation of macro-environmental assessments is the shortage of micro-environmental assessments. Macro-scale environmental assessments such as the regional acidification modelling described here, present information in a form alien to most people's spatial comprehension. Telling someone that X lakes in their region are acidic, does not address their

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particular concern for their lake. Thus, while I believe efforts to develop macro-scale assessments should continue, there must be a greater effort to relate those assessments back to local situations. Both local and macro-scale assessments are needed for the formulation of solutions. Turner (1989) presented an analysis the relationship between economic development and environmentally sensitive aid (ESA) in the poorer countries of the world. In a matrix relating policy approaches to various spatial scales of concern, Turner noted a critical need for ESA to transfer information, technology, and competence to households, communities and eco-zones. I accept Turner's technical assessment but think the transfers are needed in all countries. These transfers must take place in this 'turnaround' decade if humans are to lessen their impact on the earth. Recommendations

Turner's appraisal combined with the reflections arising from the preparation of this paper lead me to draft a set of recommendations. I formulated a sequential approach to environmental assessment and management consisting of People, Training, Tool-boxes, and Indicators. The approach is meant to enable not constrain. PEOPLE Despite the megalopolises emerging around the earthe, we still think and act like villagers in, perhaps, one hundred million villages. We each have strong links with 50 to 100 people, no more, inhabiting ecosystems with limited spatial extents. To track and collate environmental information on a village scale, we need people to watch and 'keep' the ecosystem - holistic village ecologists. Remote, centralized, integrating technology using remote sensing, stratified surveys, and massive machinery, can provide global and regional contexts for the assessment of problems but only local information brings 'home' their significance. Finding people to 'keep' ecosystems may be more difficult in the most developed societies where they have become separated from their ecosystems. TRAINING Training will enhance the work of the village ecologists. Training should emphasize problem-solving techniques, planning methods, simulation modelling, data analysis, data gathering. Expert systems can help deliver the training. The order may appear reversed but I firmly believe that problems should be analyzed using existing data before rushing out to gather new data. Rational analysis of problems leads to rational priorities. Problem-solving techniques provide ways of structuring issues and of resolving conflicts. TOOL BOXES Provide more access to micro-computers. They are rugged, consume little power, can run on batteries, and are easily replaced or upgraded. They support a wide variety of applications, and can be a powerful holistic technology. They enable individuals and groups to integrate and disseminate environmental information. They provide a basis for

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increased communication and information sharing, both locally and globally. They are a platform for the conversion of data into information and ideas into options. There is always a danger that computers will be used to impose prescriptive formulas. However, widespread distribution and extensive networking ought to forestall any misuse. Micro-computers are not as easily controlled as main-frame ones. A wide spectrum of commercial software is available and little need to develop custom applications. The software provides communications; word-processing; data manipulation, analysis, and presentation; GIS; programming languages; expert systems; graphics; simulation modelling; etc. INDICATORS The combination of people, training and tool-boxes should enable villagers to assess their ecosystems and to analyze and resolve problems affecting them. I do not presume to suggest specific indicators to express environmental status in particular areas. There are many problems to solve and many potentially useful indicators. However, I do have some generic suggestions. The indicators must be simple and obtainable with modest equipment. Schemes relying on the intensive use of mass-spectrometers, ultra-centrifuges, mark-recapture population estimation, energy flow measurement, etc., cannot be applied extensively. Those technologies and the experts using them will always be scarce. The indicators should preferably involve living organisms. In the end, sustaining biotic components of ecosystems is our primary concern. Physical and chemical indicators are often used as surrogates and the users often forget the biological significance underlying the indicators. The simplest indicators are the presence-absence of key species and the visible health and condition of individuals of key species. Indicators must be repeatable. Anecdotal and second-hand non-systematic observations are not an acceptable basis for rational decision-making. Certainly, prior experience and hard-won expertise cannot be ignored. The preference for simple indicators is not a criticism of the majority of environmental research being undertaken. Detailed description and understanding are necessary and will guide the selection of indicators. However, the so-called technology transfer process does not consist of handling over techniques and tools. They must be translated into indicators appropriate to the scale and context of the assessment. The communication feature of the tool-box provides access to literature, data, ideas, and experts. Geography will restrict local choice of indicators and indicators. Both regional and local habitat attributes will influence the choice. The prevailing array of environmental problems will also play a role. Conclusions

Stop using prescriptive studies as a substitute for solutions. Emphasize holistic technologies including problem solving methodologies like modelling.

USING

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- Develop 'village' information systems to provide people with the basis for managing life in their ecosystems. - Provide people with training and tool-boxes and let them choose the indicators for their ecosystems. - Use regional information systems, integrating village information, to provide the broader contexts for larger-scale decision-making. Acknowledgements Thanks to Dave Rapport for asking me to write this paper and think about these issues. Thanks to my friends, and colleagues, Vic Cairns, Ora Johansson, and Scott Millard for discussion and criticism of an earlier draft. References Aim, L.R.: 1989, 'Scientists, Researchers, and Acid Rain', J. Environ. Systems 18 (3), 265-278. Briassoulis, H.: 1987, 'Compromise Solutions to the Acid Deposition Control Problem: A Theoretical Model and some Simulation Results', Environ. Manage. 11 (2), 271-278. Briassoulis, H.: 1989, 'Theoretical Orientations in Environmental Planning: An Inquiry into Alternative Approaches', Environ. Manage 13 (4),381-392. Burrough, P.A.: 1986, 'Principles of Geographical Information Systems for Land Resources Assessment', Monographs on soil and resources survey No. 12. Oxford Univ. Press, New York, 193 p. Christie,W. J., Becker, M. Cowden, J. W., and Vallentyne, J. R.: 1986, 'Managing the Great Lakes as a Home', J. Great Lakes Res. 12 (1), 217. Clark, W.C.: 1985, 'Scales of Climate Impacts', Climate Change 7, 5-27. Coulson, R. N., Folse, L. J., and Loh, D. K.: 1987, 'Artificial Intelligence and Natural Resource Management', Science 237, 262-267. DPA Group Inc.: 1987, 'Assessing Historical and Future Economic Impacts and Net Economic Effects Related to Acidic Deposition on the Sports Fishery of Eastern Canada', Final Report to Dept. Fish. Oceans, ECAD, Ottawa. 168 p. Gould, P. R. and White, R.: 1986, MentalMaps, 2nd. Edn. Allen and Unwin, Winchester, Mass. 172 p. Jeffers, J. N. R.: 1978, An Introduction to Systems Analysis." with Ecological Applications, Edward Arnold, London, 198 p. Jeffers, J. N. R.: 1982, Modelling, Chapman and Hall, New York, 80 p. Johnson, M. G. and Owen, G. E.: 1971, 'Nutrients and Nutrient Budgets in the Bay of Quinte, Lake Ontario', J. Water Pollut. Control Fed 43 (5), 836-853. Johnson, M. G. and Hurley, D. A.: 1986, Overview of Project Quinte - 1972-82', In C. K. Minns, D. A. Hurley, and K. H. Nicholls (ed.), Project Quinte: Point-Source Phosphorous Control and Ecosystem Response in the Bay of Quinte, Lake Ontario. Can. Spec. Publ. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 86:270 p. Jones, M. L., Minns, C.K., Marmorek, D.R., and Elder, F.C.: 1990, 'Assessing the Potential Extent of Damage to Inland Lakes in Eastern Canada Due to Acidic Deposition. II. Application of the Regional Model', Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 47, 67-80. Kozlowski, J.: 1986, 'Threshold Approach in Urban, Regional and Environmental Planning', Univ. Queensland Press, St. Lucia, 262 p. Lein, J.K.: 1989, 'An Expert System Approach to Environmental Impact Assessment', Intern. J. Environ. Studies 33, 13-27. Loehle, C.: 1987, 'Applying Artificial Intelligence Techniques to Ecological Modelling', Ecol. Modelling 38, 191-212. Luc Michaud Inc.: 1987, 'The Impact of Acidification on the Economic Value of Recreational Fishing in Quebec', Final Report to Dept. Fish. Oceans, ECAD, Ottawa, 37 p. Marmorek, D. R., Jones, M. L., Minns, C. K. and Elder, F.C.: 1990, 'Assessing in the Potential Extent of

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