Author Manuscript Published OnlineFirst on October 26, 2015; DOI: 10.1158/1078-0432.CCR-15-1208 Author manuscripts have been peer reviewed and accepted for publication but have not yet been edited.

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TITLE

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Pathological T0 following cisplatin-based neo-adjuvant chemotherapy for muscle-invasive bladder

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cancer: a network meta-analysis

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Hyung Suk Kim, Chang Wook Jeong, Cheol Kwak, Hyeon Hoe Kim, Ja Hyeon Ku

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Department of Urology, Seoul National University Hospital, Seoul, Korea

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Running title: Neo-adjuvant chemotherapy for muscle-invasive bladder cancer

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Correspondence

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Ja Hyeon Ku, M.D. PhD.

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Department of Urology, Seoul National University Hospital,

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101 Daehak-ro, Jongno-gu, Seoul 110-744, Korea

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Tel: 82-2-2072-0361, Fax: 82-2-742-4665, E-mail: [email protected]

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Other authors

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Hyung Suk Kim, M.D.

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Department of Urology, Seoul National University Hospital

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101 Daehak-ro, Jongno-gu, Seoul 110-744,Korea

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Tel: 82-2-2072-1968, Fax: 82-2-742-4665, E-mail: [email protected]

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Chang Wook Jeong, M.D.,-Ph.D.

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Department of Urology, Seoul National University Hospital

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101, Daehak-ro, Jongno-gu, Seoul, 110-744, Republic of Korea

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Tel: 82-2-2072-3899, Fax: 82-2-762-2428, E-mail: [email protected]

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Cheol Kwak, M.D., Ph.D.

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Department of Urology, Seoul National University Hospital

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101 Daehak-ro, Jongno-gu, Seoul 110-744,Korea 1

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Author Manuscript Published OnlineFirst on October 26, 2015; DOI: 10.1158/1078-0432.CCR-15-1208 Author manuscripts have been peer reviewed and accepted for publication but have not yet been edited.

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Tel: 82-2-2072-0817, Fax: 82-2-742-4665, E-mail: [email protected]

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Hyeon Hoe Kim, M.D., PhD.

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Department of Urology, Seoul National University Hospital,

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101 Daehak-ro, Jongno-gu, Seoul 110-744, Korea

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Tel: 82-2-2072-2425, Fax: 82-2-742-4665, E-mail: [email protected]

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Financial Support: none

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Disclosure of Potential Conflicts of Interest: The authors have declared that no competing interests

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exist.

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Word counts: Abstract (246), Text (3,033)

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Total numbers of Figures and Tables: Four (4) figures and two (2) tables in the main text; three (3)

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supplementary figures

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Author Manuscript Published OnlineFirst on October 26, 2015; DOI: 10.1158/1078-0432.CCR-15-1208 Author manuscripts have been peer reviewed and accepted for publication but have not yet been edited.

Statement of translational relevance

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Although radical cystectomy with bilateral pelvic lymphadenectomy may be curable treatment option for

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some patients with muscle invasive bladder cancer (MIBC), a substantial portion of patients experienced

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disease recurrence after surgery. Therefore, the administration of neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACH)

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prior to surgery is currently recommended in almost all MIBC patients for the improvement of patient’s

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survival.

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Based on previously published articles, tumour down-staging to pathological complete response (pCR)

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after NACH is considered to be a surrogate predictor of favourable outcomes after radical cystectomy for

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MIBC. However, the optimal NACH regimen to achieve pCR has not yet been definitively established.

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In this study, we analysed initial and updated publications along with subsequent meta-analyses with

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respect to NACH for MIBC patients. Additionally, we sought to assess and compare the pCR rates of

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various NACH regimens in patients with muscle-invasive urothelial carcinoma of the bladder on the basis

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of the meta-analysis.

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Author Manuscript Published OnlineFirst on October 26, 2015; DOI: 10.1158/1078-0432.CCR-15-1208 Author manuscripts have been peer reviewed and accepted for publication but have not yet been edited.

Abstract

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Purpose: To systematically assess and compare the relationship between various NACH regimens and

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pCR in MIBC patients.

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Experimental design: We performed a literature search of PubMed, Embase, and the Cochrane Library

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for all articles published prior to March 2015 and according to the Preferred Reporting Items for

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Systematic Review and Meta-analysis (PRISMA) guidelines. There were 17 articles that met the study

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eligibility criteria and were selected for the final analysis. A direct pair-wise meta-analysis was performed

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for studies that compared the same regimen. Finally, a Bayesian network meta-analysis was used to

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indirectly compare the regimens.

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Results: In a pair-wise meta-analysis, the methotrexate/vinblastine/Adriamycin®/cisplatin (MVAC)

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(odds ratio [OR] 4.36, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.71–7.02) and gemcitabine/cisplatin (GC) regimens

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(OR 4.92, 95% CI 2.93–8.24) were significantly associated with a better pCR than RC alone. In a

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network meta-analysis, there was no significant difference in terms of pCR achievement between the GC

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and MVAC regimens (OR 1.14, 95% CI 0.85–1.70). However, in a sub-group network meta-analysis that

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only included prospective randomized trials, the MVAC regimen was significantly correlated with a

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higher rate of pCR (OR 5.75, 95% CI 1.96–24.18).

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Conclusions: The results of this meta-analysis suggest that a GC regimen was associated with a pCR rate

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that was similar to that of a MVAC regimen based on retrospective data, but only the MVAC regimen

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was proven to achieve pCR in prospective randomized trials. Additional prospective randomized trials

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comparing both regimens will be necessary to establish the optimal NACH regimen.

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KEYWORDS: Urinary bladder neoplasm, neo-adjuvant chemotherapy, cystectomy, risk assessment

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Author Manuscript Published OnlineFirst on October 26, 2015; DOI: 10.1158/1078-0432.CCR-15-1208 Author manuscripts have been peer reviewed and accepted for publication but have not yet been edited.

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Introduction

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Radical cystectomy (RC) with bilateral pelvic lymphadenectomy is the recommended treatment for

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patients with muscle-invasive bladder cancer (MIBC). This is a curative procedure for many patients;

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however, some patients may experience disease recurrence (1-3). Bladder cancers usually recur distantly

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rather than loco-regionally. In patients with pT2 and pT3/pT4 tumours, local recurrence has been

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observed in 3–4% and 11–16% of patients, respectively, whereas distant failure has occurred in 10–27%

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and 19–35% of patients, respectively (1, 4). The latter findings make a strong argument for the

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administration of perioperative chemotherapy, since a failure to cure is usually due to the presence of

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occult metastatic disease at sites that are beyond the margins of local therapy. In addition, these findings

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indicate that radical surgery alone may be inadequate for the majority of patients with locally advanced

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bladder cancer. Thus, some form of effective systemic treatment is required in order to improve patient

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survival. A meta-analysis that included 11 randomised studies suggested that neo-adjuvant chemotherapy

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(NACH) followed by RC was associated with a 5% improvement in overall survival and a 9%

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improvement in disease-free survival (5). Therefore, NACH is recommended for nearly all MIBC patients.

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Despite this recommendation, only 15–20% of MIBC patients have received NACH, though the

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prevalence has increased over time (6). Importantly, the optimal regimen of NACH is controversial

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because few studies have compared the efficacy of the different NACH regimens. The European Society

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of Medical Oncology does not recommend one particular NACH regimen (7). The National

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Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) recommends the use of gemcitabine/cisplatin (GC) NACH

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based

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methotrexate/vinblastine/Adriamycin®/cisplatin (MVAC) regimen as the preferred neo-adjuvant

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regimens (8). However, this trial was performed in patients with advanced and metastatic bladder cancer,

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and therefore the results may not be applicable to patients in a neo-adjuvant setting.

on

the

data

from

several

comparative

trials,

as

well

as

the

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Patients that do not respond to NACH may experience reduced quality of life and substantial delays in

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definitive treatment. Tumour down-staging might be a valuable measurement for individualising MIBC

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treatment until adequate molecular markers to detect chemo-sensitive tumours are identified. Previous 5

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studies have demonstrated that NACH increased the rate of down-staging, leading to an improved

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prognosis (9-11). In contrast, a lack of response to NACH was associated with a significantly higher rate

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of local and distant recurrence, and with lower overall survival (12). Therefore, several investigators have

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suggested that tumour down-staging might be used as a surrogate end-point for overall survival (13). In

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particular, down-staging to pT0 (pathological complete response, pT0N0M0; pCR) is currently the best

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predictor of favourable outcomes (14, 15). The results of the SWOG 8710 trial demonstrated that patients

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who achieved pCR status after RC had an 80% probability of survival at five years (14). Patients with

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pCR in the four main prospective NACH trials experienced similar survival times, which exceeded those

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of the groups that did not achieve pCR (15). A recent meta-analysis also demonstrated that patients who

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achieved pCR after NACH had better overall and recurrence-free survival times than those who did not

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achieve pCR (16).

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In this study, we analysed initial and updated publications along with subsequent meta-analyses with

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respect to NACH for MIBC patients. Additionally, we sought to assess and compare the pCR rates of

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various NACH regimens in patients with muscle-invasive urothelial carcinoma of the bladder on the basis

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of the meta-analysis.

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Author Manuscript Published OnlineFirst on October 26, 2015; DOI: 10.1158/1078-0432.CCR-15-1208 Author manuscripts have been peer reviewed and accepted for publication but have not yet been edited.

Materials and Methods

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The meta-analysis was performed in agreement with the recommendations of the preferred reporting

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items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses (PRISMA) (17).

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Search strategy

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A comprehensive literature search was conducted of studies published before March 30, 2015, using

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PubMed, Embase, and the Cochrane Library. The search was restricted to articles for which the full-text

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publications were available in English. The following key words were used: (urothelial cancer OR

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urinary bladder OR bladder cancer OR bladder carcinoma) AND (neo-adjuvant chemotherapy OR

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induction chemotherapy OR pre-operative chemotherapy) AND (radical cystectomy). The reference lists

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from eligible studies and meta-analyses were also reviewed. Two independent evaluators (H.S.K., C.W.J.)

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selected the articles and any discrepancies were resolved.

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Eligible criteria

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We defined study eligibility according to predefined selection criteria (17).

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Population: Patients with muscle-invasive urothelial carcinoma of the bladder.

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Interventions: Cisplatin-based combination NACH followed by RC.

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Comparators: RC only.

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Outcome: pCR rate.

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Study design: Retrospective or prospective .

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Published studies were included if they (1) included patients with muscle-invasive urothelial carcinoma

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of the bladder; (2) evaluated neo-adjuvant cisplatin-based combination chemotherapy; and (3) reported

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pCR following RC. The exclusion criteria were the following: non-human studies, review articles, letters,

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editorial comments, case reports, and articles that did not include raw data. Studies that included neo-

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adjuvant radiotherapy, single agent cisplatin chemotherapy, carboplatin-based chemotherapy, or studies in

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which chemotherapy was delivered non-intravenously were also excluded. If multiple publications from 7

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Author Manuscript Published OnlineFirst on October 26, 2015; DOI: 10.1158/1078-0432.CCR-15-1208 Author manuscripts have been peer reviewed and accepted for publication but have not yet been edited.

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the same study or institution were available, we included the publication with the largest number of cases

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and the most applicable information.

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Data extraction

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Two authors (C.K. and H.H.K.) completed an independent review of 1,337 articles. A total of 1,238

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articles were excluded on the basis of the titles and abstracts, and the full-text versions of 99 articles were

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evaluated. In accordance with the inclusion criteria, a final selection of 17 articles was performed (14, 18-

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33) and any discrepancies were resolved. A PRISMA flow chart depicting the process for the systematic

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literature search and selection of the studies is shown in Figure 1.

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The following information was recorded for each eligible trial: author name, year of publication,

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geographic location, period of recruitment, study design, total number of patients, median age, percentage

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of patients achieving pCR, and systemic NACH regimen administered.

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Statistical analysis

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If two or more studies compared the same regimen, a direct meta-analysis was conducted and the random

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effects odds ratio (OR) was calculated, according to the methods described by DerSimonian and Laird.

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The Chi2 and I2 tests were used to assess heterogeneity of the ORs between studies. Significant

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differences were defined as 50% for the I2 test. Publication bias was

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evaluated for the OR analysis using Egger’s linear regression, the Begg rank correlation, and funnel plots.

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A p

Pathological T0 Following Cisplatin-Based Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy for Muscle-Invasive Bladder Cancer: A Network Meta-analysis.

To systematically assess and compare the relationship between various neoadjuvant chemotherapy regimens and pCR in patients with muscle-invasive bladd...
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